• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'

2

Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal

3

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

1

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'

2

Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal

3

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

Wall Street’s hidden Europe risk

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 12, 2012, 10:00 AM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Recently upped its exposure to Italy

Fortune – Wall Street firms have been trying to stay one step ahead of the European crisis. That might not be far enough.

Earlier this year, a number of U.S. banks disclosed that they had significantly cut their exposure to Europe’s most troubled economies. That was welcome news at a time when the Euro crisis appeared to be heating up again. But what got little notice was that while Wall Street firms were cutting their exposure to Greece and Ireland and Portugal, they were increasing their lending and bond buying in Italy, France and other European nations that seemed more secure. At the time that might have seemed like prudent risk taking.

MORE: Bank bailout is no cure for Spain

Over the weekend, though, European nations were forced to bailout Spain’s banks. That’s raised fears that the larger European economies might be in more danger of default than earlier thought. And that might be a problem for U.S. banks as well.

Goldman Sachs (GS), for instance, bought $2.2 billion worth of bonds in Italy, which is widely seen as the next troubled nation after Spain, in the first three months of the year. Bank of America (BAC), too, added over $600 million of Italian government bonds to its portfolio in the first three months of the year. Morgan Stanley (MS) added $555 million in French government bonds, after largely betting against the nation’s debt in the year before.

And that’s just the bets we can see. While the banks now disclose more about their Europe bets than they used to. Most of the detail has to do with the countries that have been seen for the past year or so as the most troubled, like Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The financial statements of Goldman and Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) still give no detail about those banks’ lending and credit exposure in France. None of the U.S.’s largest banks disclose anything about how much much they stand to lose in say Germany, or Europe overall for that matter.

MORE: Four reasons why the euro will survive

It is likely that Wall Street firms and U.S. large banks have recently been upping their activities in Europe’s largest economies. U.S. banks need more capital in order to meet new regulatory requirements. And they don’t want to have to sell more shares to do so. The only other option is to increase your bottom line. But that’s hard to do in a slow U.S. economy, still struggling with a housing downturn, and low interest rates. And so a number of U.S. banks are looking to Europe to expand and pick up business at a time when local banks are struggling. At a recent presentation for investors and analysts, Goldman’s president Gary Cohn said that Goldman could benefit from Europe’s financial troubles by picking up customers for weaker overseas rivals. But to do so, Goldman will have to up what it could loose in Europe as well.

How much are the big U.S. banks at risk in Europe? Wall Street seems mixed on this. Europe’s troubles seem to be costing them business. European M&A, for example, and the advisory fees that U.S. banks get on those deals, is around an all-time low for number of deals. Compared to say how much the U.S. banks had riding on mortgage bonds or U.S. real estate, the European bets appear to be small. As long as their hedges work, and that is a big if, it looks unlikely that any U.S. bank would fail, or even come close, due to its exposures in Europe. The Kansas City Financial Stress Index, which ranks how much risk there is in the U.S. banking system, had a reading of -11 in May. Anything under zero means that the risk of having trouble at any of the U.S.’s largest banks is lower than usual.

That doesn’t mean everyone thinks there is nothing to worry about. Veteran bank analyst Tom Brown recently told Bloomberg News that a director at one of the nation’s largest banks told Brown that he is “scared to death.” The director’s main fear was that the counterparties that U.S. banks have placed their hedges with might not have the money to pay up if there were a default in Europe.

Bank analyst Christopher Whalen says there are a lot of people looking into currency risk. Goldman’s Cohn said his firm has spent a lot of time looking into whether trading parties could eventually pay the firm in drachma or other currencies should they reemerge. Whalen says he is not particularly worried about Europe when it comes to the big banks, though he says we really don’t know. “The new game on Wall Street is guessing where the European risk is,” says Whalen. “We’ll find out.”

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in

France deploys giant military cargo plane to dump tons of flame retardants as European wildfires displace more than 250,000
Environmentwildfires
France deploys giant military cargo plane to dump tons of flame retardants as European wildfires displace more than 250,000
By Mark Carlson, Emma Da Silva, John Leicester and The Associated PressJuly 25, 2026
4 hours ago
Intern arrested in Belgium on suspicion of spying inside NATO military headquarters and ‘being a member of a criminal organization’
CybersecurityNATO
Intern arrested in Belgium on suspicion of spying inside NATO military headquarters and ‘being a member of a criminal organization’
By Sam McNeil and The Associated PressJuly 25, 2026
4 hours ago
Let’s get ready to rumble: The next Fed meeting will be a ‘family feud’ — and that’s exactly what Chairman Kevin Warsh wants
EconomyFederal Reserve
Let’s get ready to rumble: The next Fed meeting will be a ‘family feud’ — and that’s exactly what Chairman Kevin Warsh wants
By Jason MaJuly 25, 2026
4 hours ago
The ‘Trump Trade’ is turning into a loser in the stock market
InvestingStock
The ‘Trump Trade’ is turning into a loser in the stock market
By Geoffrey Morgan, Joel Leon and BloombergJuly 25, 2026
6 hours ago
Samsung wins $200 billion order to supply chips to Broadcom
AIChips
Samsung wins $200 billion order to supply chips to Broadcom
By Hooyeon Kim and BloombergJuly 25, 2026
6 hours ago
SK chair says Anthropic asked for supplies to make its own chips
AIChips
SK chair says Anthropic asked for supplies to make its own chips
By Ian King and BloombergJuly 25, 2026
6 hours ago

Most Popular

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
Real Estate
The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 25, 2026
15 hours ago
Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal
Middle East
Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal
By Jason MaJuly 25, 2026
7 hours ago
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
Economy
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
By Eleanor PringleJuly 24, 2026
2 days ago
Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for
Big Tech
Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for
By Sydney LakeJuly 23, 2026
3 days ago
An 11-year-old is cleaning his neighbors' trash cans for $10 each—he now has 100K followers as teens face the worst summer job market since 1948
Success
An 11-year-old is cleaning his neighbors' trash cans for $10 each—he now has 100K followers as teens face the worst summer job market since 1948
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 25, 2026
17 hours ago
A Hims cofounder fired his entire marketing team for AI. Now his 24/7 online vet service is growing 20% a month
Success
A Hims cofounder fired his entire marketing team for AI. Now his 24/7 online vet service is growing 20% a month
By Sydney LakeJuly 25, 2026
13 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.