• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

Cocking the Apple slingshot

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
April 16, 2012, 7:40 AM ET

Why would a stock like Apple fall 10% just before quarterly earnings are due? 

 



MONDAY 4:00 p.m. UPDATE: Throw another -4.15% on the barbie. One analyst called today’s selloff “panic profit taking.”

– – –

I think it may be time once again to dust off Jason Schwarz’ classic blog post: Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It.

Apple’s (AAPL) shares, in case you missed it, took a drubbing last week, falling $38.77 (6%) in four days — from Tuesday’s all-time intraday high of $644 to Friday’s close at $605.23.

[They fell another 3% in early trading Monday and closed at $580.13, down $25.10 (4.15%) for the day and 9.9% from last week’s high.]

To be sure, there was a bit of negative news that could have triggered some selling. The Justice Department’s antitrust division sued Apple and five publishers last Tuesday for alleged collusion in the e-book trade.

But that doesn’t really justify knocking $36 billion off Apple’s market cap [minus another $23.4 billion Monday morning]. Sales of e-books amount to a tiny fraction of a revenue rivulet (“Other music related products and services”) that including iTunes music sales represented just 4.4% of Apple’s total revenue last quarter.

And the stock, as any technical trader will tell you, was overbought and ripe for some profit taking.

But even the technicals have their eye on the next major event in the Apple news cycle: The company’s second fiscal quarter earnings, due out a week from Tuesday.

Past performance is no guarantee of anything, of course, but it’s worth noting that Apple’s shares rose 8.29% in 2011 the day after Q2 earnings were released. In 2010, they soared 14.63%. In fact, as Bullish Cross‘ Andy Zaky points out, Apple’s shares have climbed the day after the Q2 report every year for the past six, rising an average of 3.67%.

This is where Jason Schwarz comes in. I’ll post a summary of his seven reasons below the fold, but the meat of his argument can be summarized in two sentences:

“If you can keep a good stock down then you are able to load up for the ride back up. It’s like a slingshot — the harder you pull, the more propulsion you generate.”

Apple’s Q2 earnings will be released after the markets close on April 24. A conference call with analysts will be webcast here.

Below: Schwartz’ seven reasons.

You can read the full text of his thesis here. If you don’t want to click through The Street’s version — posted in seven slow-loading gallery pages — you can read the executive summary we published in 2009. Except for some of the pre-iPad details and the last point, about Steve Jobs, it rings as true today as it did three years ago.

1. Apple is the market leader. This one stock has become so important to the market that its action is contagious. This influence makes Apple a prized possession for both the longs and the shorts. Knocking down an easier target like Research In Motion or Citigroup doesn’t generate the same snowball effect.

2. Apple always bounces back. Over the long run, Apple fundamentals will certainly take the stock higher, but hedge funds want to maximize the ride. Keeping a great stock down allows them to profit from quick predetermined trades rather than being fully invested all the time.

3. The predictability of Apple reduces a short’s risk. Everyone knows when the next iPod, iPhone,and iMac refreshes will hit. This has turned into a calendar-driven catalyst stock. During the quiet time, the stock is vulnerable.

4. New media have changed the game. Anybody can say anything and the masses will believe it. The topic of Apple currently dominates this new media. There is no accountability or verification of sources like the old days. In such an environment, hidden agendas can be pushed endlessly without disclosure.

5. Apple secrecy. As the unparalleled leader in tech innovation, Apple feels that it is necessary to keep future products veiled to all competitors, consumers and investors … Apple has yet to sell a single Tablet, yet hedge funds already have made millions from rumors surrounding the product. The lack of transparency from Apple creates a perfect storm for short-term traders.

6. Apple innovation. This company is so good that it causes imaginations to run wild. A hedge fund could float a story that Apple is thinking of buying Saturn in order to develop a new brand of Apple cars and people would go nuts … The constant innovation coming out of Apple provides traders with endless material for believable speculation.

7. Steve Jobs is the visionary of the century. This one man is the single greatest asset in corporate America, which causes Apple stock to trade with a Steve Jobs premium, a variable that the shorts can use as well. Apple’s stock is always vulnerable to losing Jobs. [Note to Jason: Please recast this item.]

About the Author
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Jamie Laing thinks tomorrow’s Fortune 500 will be built by creators. He might be right 
C-Suitecreator economy
Jamie Laing thinks tomorrow’s Fortune 500 will be built by creators. He might be right 
By Sam BirchallJune 10, 2026
19 minutes ago
Geoffrey von Maltzahn and Kimberly Powell on stage at Fortune Brainstorm Tech
AITerm Sheet
AI drug discovery leaders warn U.S. health funding cuts risk falling behind global rivals
By Lily Mae LazarusJune 10, 2026
51 minutes ago
The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve is so low it’s near panic levels
EnergyMarkets
The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve is so low it’s near panic levels
By Jim EdwardsJune 10, 2026
1 hour ago
Today’s top high-yield savings rates: Up to 5.00% on June 10, 2026
Personal FinanceSavings accounts
Today’s top high-yield savings rates: Up to 5.00% on June 10, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 10, 2026
1 hour ago
Top CD rates today, June 10, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.30%
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates today, June 10, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.30%
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 10, 2026
1 hour ago
A ‘MAGA Warrior’ Texas ag chief is publicly blasting the USDA over a flesh-eating pest threatening America’s beef supply
North AmericaUSDA
A ‘MAGA Warrior’ Texas ag chief is publicly blasting the USDA over a flesh-eating pest threatening America’s beef supply
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJune 10, 2026
2 hours ago

Most Popular

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
Economy
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
By Nick LichtenbergJune 9, 2026
19 hours ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
22 hours ago
Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon
Environment
Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon
By Sasha RogelbergJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
23 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.