• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary says if he were 25 today, he'd chase these two booming opportunities in the world of AI

2

Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it

3

Current price of oil as of July 6, 2026

1

Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary says if he were 25 today, he'd chase these two booming opportunities in the world of AI

2

Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it

3

Current price of oil as of July 6, 2026
FinanceFrom the Crowd

Peter Thiel and the definite future

Fortune Editors
By
Fortune Editors
Fortune Editors
Down Arrow Button Icon
Fortune Editors
By
Fortune Editors
Fortune Editors
Down Arrow Button Icon
September 30, 2011, 5:12 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

By Alex Taussig, contributor

(I originally published this at my blog infinitetoventure.com. Go check it out!)

I attended a discussion with Peter Thiel yesterday at Harvard Business School. It was my second time hearing Peter speak in the last 12 months, and I find his brand of intellectual honesty quite refreshing in today’s age of politicized, reinforced conformity. That doesn’t mean I agree with everything he says, but you have to admire a guy who can express a uniquely contrarian viewpoint without a hint of irony. In true HBS spirit, you get the sense that he really does want to have a discussion about some of the biggest issues facing the world, not just express his views in a vacuum without the expectation of a rebuttal.

The main theme of Thiel’s short speech was the distinction between two views of the future: The “definite” and the “indefinite.”

The definite future is one in which we choose one future worldview and allocate resources against it. Thiel argues that the America of the 50′s and 60′s, in which science fiction novels and government spending on the Space Race were overwhelmingly popular, believed in a definite future, and that this was good for innovation. We believed that man would walk on the moon, that robots would live in our homes and that scientists could engineer a pill that contained all the nutritional value of our three daily meals. We got only one of those right, but that’s not the point. It was the idea that aligning oneself around a common goal and believing in it, perhaps foolhardily, is the only way to achieve true greatness. Occasionally, you will actually achieve one of those crazy dreams.

In contrast, the indefinite future is one in which we accept our inability to predict anything useful and hedge our bets by putting our resources behind a portfolio of activities down the road. This philosophy best reflects the American psyche of today. How often have you heard our politicians say, “There’s no silver bullet. We need to approach this with a portfolio of solutions.” It’s as if America no longer believes in its ability to invent the future.

The concerning part of an indefinite view of the future, according to Thiel, is that technology plays no role in it. Instead of putting all our resources behind a panacea-like solution that does not yet exist, the indefinite futurist invests a little bit in every conceivable solution he already has. Thiel believes this philosophy, by definition, fails since almost every major problem we have would have been solved already by current solutions. Taking a portfolio approach to the future may feel intellectually honest and is more politically palatable, but it is doomed to fail the mission of advancing the nation forward through innovation.

Thiel applies this distinction to entrepreneurship in a fascinating way. By definition, entrepreneurs have a definite view of the future. If they don’t, they should get another job. Similarly, they shouldn’t raise money from VCs who also don’t have a definite view of the future. In his own words:

Investors should think in as definite a way as possible about the future. Don’t admit you don’t know and lean back. It’s obnoxious to entrepreneurs. Someone who says “it might work or might not work” is not the kind of person you want to be working with [if you’re an entrepreneur]. There’s room for actuarial science, but not everything is actuarial math.

I think this type of investor attitude goes beyond Eric Paley’s definition of conviction on a given deal. The definite future is a worldview — the belief that our own concentrated actions can actually invent the very future we seek to create. If you believe that, it makes the decision to support entrepreneurship a really easy one.

Alex Taussig is a Principal with Highland Capital Partners and invests in early stage technology companies. You can find this blog post, as well as additional content on his blog infinitetoventure.com. You can also follow Alex on Twitter @ataussig.

About the Author
Fortune Editors
By Fortune Editors
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

‘Marie Antoinette would feel very comfortable’: How U.S. airlines built their business around big spenders
Travel & LeisureAirline industry
‘Marie Antoinette would feel very comfortable’: How U.S. airlines built their business around big spenders
By Rio Yamat and The Associated PressJuly 7, 2026
2 hours ago
Tech volatility hits highest since dot-com bust next to S&P 500
Investingtech stocks
Tech volatility hits highest since dot-com bust next to S&P 500
By Bernard Goyder and BloombergJuly 7, 2026
3 hours ago
Current price of Ethereum for July 7, 2026
Personal FinanceEthereum
Current price of Ethereum for July 7, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 7, 2026
4 hours ago
Current price of Bitcoin for July 7, 2026
Personal FinanceCryptocurrency
Current price of Bitcoin for July 7, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 7, 2026
4 hours ago
Current price of gold as of July 7, 2026
Personal Financegold prices
Current price of gold as of July 7, 2026
By Danny BakstJuly 7, 2026
4 hours ago
Top CD rates from major banks July 7, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates from major banks on July 7, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 7, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary says if he were 25 today, he'd chase these two booming opportunities in the world of AI
AI
Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary says if he were 25 today, he'd chase these two booming opportunities in the world of AI
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 5, 2026
2 days ago
Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it
Success
Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it
By Preston ForeJuly 6, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of July 6, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 6, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 6, 2026
1 day ago
Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ everyday Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living
Success
Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ everyday Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living
By Preston ForeJuly 4, 2026
3 days ago
Current price of silver as of Monday, July 6, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Monday, July 6, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 6, 2026
1 day ago
The man who ran Bernie's campaign says Democrats are still making the same mistakes with Democratic Socialists, and they should laud Mamdani's win
Politics
The man who ran Bernie's campaign says Democrats are still making the same mistakes with Democratic Socialists, and they should laud Mamdani's win
By Catherina GioinoJuly 6, 2026
19 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.