Given the questions about the economy, now seems like a good time to play defense with your stock portfolio.
But some of the biggest names in supposedly safe, classically defensive sectors like health care and household goods – ranging from Abbott Labs and J&J to Colgate and Clorox – are actually vastly overvalued now given their earnings prospects, a top Wall Street number cruncher warns.
The healthcare and consumer goods sectors are among those identified by Bank of America Merrill Lynch quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian as “value traps” – industries where stocks look cheap by historical averages, but are characterized by falling stock prices and weakening fundamentals, such as sliding earnings estimates.
Other similarly overpriced sectors include insurance and semiconductors, she writes in a note to clients Monday.
“These are industries that are selling at discounts to their historical market multiples, but do not yet appear to have any suggestion of an upturn in price performance,” she writes.
Subramanian notes that the entire U.S. stock market actually looks cheap right now. At a recent 1,169, the S&P 500 is trading at 12 times Wall Street’s earnings estimates for next year. That compares with a median average since 1995 of about 16.
Of course, the comparison is skewed by the fact that interest rates have been held near zero for going on two years now and counting. What’s more, Subramanian said more and more industry sectors have been showing up as value traps, “suggesting that valuation alone may be a false signal for an increasing number of industries.”
Among the other stocks fingered today on the value trap list, courtesy of BofA Merrill:
Health Care Equipment & Supplies
Boston Scientific (BSX)
Hospira (HSP)
Medtronic (MDT)
Stryker (SYK)
Dentsply Intl (XRAY)
Health Care Providers & Services
Aetna (AET)
Cigna (CI)
Tenet Healthcare (THC)
Household Products
CL Colgate-Palmolive
CLX Clorox
Insurance
Chubb (CB)
Marsh & McLennan (MMC)
Progressive (PGR)
Pharmaceuticals
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI)
Semiconductors
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Teradyne (TER)
MEMC Electronic (WFR)
Obviously, there are other ways to play defense in the stock market, by buying defense stocks and utilities, for instance.
And there is nothing to say any of the value trap stocks won’t charge higher. But history shows they tend to keep falling till something changes – and that they tend to lag behind the stock market until that happens.