• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Millennials say they’ll refuse to care for aging boomer parents—but they’ll be forced to as their inheritance shrinks to 40 cents on the dollar

2

The rise of 'conspicuous waiting': The 19th-century economic theory that explains why Gen Z posts their place in line

3

Jensen Huang says ‘a lot’ of six-figure jobs in plumbing and construction will soon be unlocked because someone needs to build new AI centers

1

Millennials say they’ll refuse to care for aging boomer parents—but they’ll be forced to as their inheritance shrinks to 40 cents on the dollar

2

The rise of 'conspicuous waiting': The 19th-century economic theory that explains why Gen Z posts their place in line

3

Jensen Huang says ‘a lot’ of six-figure jobs in plumbing and construction will soon be unlocked because someone needs to build new AI centers

Is it time for individual investors to ‘evacuate the stock market’?

By
Heidi N. Moore
Heidi N. Moore
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Heidi N. Moore
Heidi N. Moore
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 8, 2010, 6:13 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

The market bears are more convinced than ever that it’s time to sell out.

by Heidi N. Moore, contributor

The markets may rally a lot these days, but the country is still in a bearish kind of mood. White House press secretary Robert Gibbs recently danced around the issue of a double-dip recession, and Peter Orszag, the head of the Office of Management and Budget, is rumored to have quit his job in disgust with the massive national deficit.

Adding to this, the stock market has been doing some odd things lately, with 200-point jumps and bizarre drops and suspicious-looking rallies and flash crashes. We thought it might be time to get a view from a market bear.

It was bracing. Basta! says United-ICAP chief technical analyst Walter Zimmermann, who has been urging his firm’s clients to “evacuate the stock market” since 2007 and renewed his warning this year.

Zimmermann, whose firm’s clients include energy traders and institutional investors, is a big believer in the bearish view. (The whole bulls-versus-bears thing is a little like stepping into the L.A. gang wars, we know, but if you want to wear your colors and throw gang signs, that’s what the comments section is for.) His basic message to investors is an old one: if you can’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen. Dig a little deeper, though, and he’s really saying that the kitchen is about to go up in flames.

Zimmermann explains his bearishness by citing his technical belief that we are not in a double-dip recession, but a “triple-dip recession.” The difference is that he starts counting during the market’s movements back during the tech bust years of 2002 to 2003 – the first dip, in his view – and after the second dip of 2007-2009, he believes we’re in for more. “The technicals indicate new lows ahead if the 878.00 level [of the S&P 500] is broken from here.”

The possibilities he sees next are a depression brought on by deflation – he notes that copper and steel prices are imitating the softness they saw in 1930 and are signs of a pullback by China, which we are heavily dependent upon. In a best-case scenario, Zimmermann suggests there may be a repeat of the congested, go-nowhere market of 1965 to 1985.

So, in his view, any way you slice it, the stock market is not a place you should be. “The risk is too great. It’s just not worth the heartache of giving back gains,” said Zimmerman, who quips that investors have already seen their 401ks become “201ks.”

This might seem extreme, but Zimmermann is hardly alone. There’s a bearish zeitgeist out there, certainly in the short term. Legendary commodities investor Jim Rogers says he is short stocks (and long commodities). Permabear Robert Prechter, who uses Elliott Wave principles to analyze the markets, also predicts dark things for the markets. The American Association of Individual Investors, which tracks market sentiment, found that 42% of its members are bearish and only 25% are bullish.

Is getting out of equities really the answer? We wondered if diversification would help, and the answer that came back was: no. Zimmermann says his firm’s theme is “one big market, one big mess.” He went on, “Diversification only works in bull markets; diversification doesn’t work in a bear market because everything is linked together. One always has the option of pulling out of a market that’s not trending and wait for signs of improvement.”

The real surprise to us was Zimmermann’s answer to the investing dilemma: T-bills. U.S. Treasury bonds, with their odd behavior this year on top of a record national deficit, have fed something of a controversy lately. Many, including Fortune‘s Allan Sloan, make strong arguments for why the Treasury run-up shouldn’t be trusted.

Zimmermann’s comeback is that investors have limited losses on Treasuries. “Maybe you wouldn’t get a return on equity, but you’ll get your principal back. That wouldn’t be the case if we see another dip in the stock market. You’re not at risk of losing your return on equity, you’re at risk of losing your equity,” he said.

–Heidi Moore is Sweeping the Street while Colin Barr is on vacation.

About the Author
By Heidi N. Moore
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in

Elon Musk’s fortune slumps to pre-SpaceX IPO levels after rout
Big TechWealth
Elon Musk’s fortune slumps to pre-SpaceX IPO levels after rout
By Tom Maloney and BloombergAugust 1, 2026
3 hours ago
Exxon, Chevron warn fuel prices to endure as war knocks refining
Energyfuel
Exxon, Chevron warn fuel prices to endure as war knocks refining
By Kevin Crowley and BloombergAugust 1, 2026
3 hours ago
Bessent joins Japan to help reverse months of yen losses
EconomyCurrency
Bessent joins Japan to help reverse months of yen losses
By Shintaro Inkyo, Masahiro Hidaka and BloombergAugust 1, 2026
3 hours ago
A dead SpaceX rocket that’s been adrift for over a year is about to slam into the moon, carving out a new crater with the equivalent of 3 tons of TNT
Innovationspace
A dead SpaceX rocket that’s been adrift for over a year is about to slam into the moon, carving out a new crater with the equivalent of 3 tons of TNT
By Marcia Dunn and The Associated PressAugust 1, 2026
4 hours ago
After Trump threatens more strikes on Iran, Kuwait and Hormuz shipping face new attacks, while Israel hits Gaza despite Hamas pledge to disarm
PoliticsIran
After Trump threatens more strikes on Iran, Kuwait and Hormuz shipping face new attacks, while Israel hits Gaza despite Hamas pledge to disarm
By Samy Magdy, Aamer Madhani and The Associated PressAugust 1, 2026
4 hours ago
A loneliness epidemic is creating a new type of third space: the one built around curiosity
SuccessSocial Media
A loneliness epidemic is creating a new type of third space: the one built around curiosity
By Tatiana SatauaAugust 1, 2026
5 hours ago

Most Popular

Millennials say they’ll refuse to care for aging boomer parents—but they’ll be forced to as their inheritance shrinks to 40 cents on the dollar
Personal Finance
Millennials say they’ll refuse to care for aging boomer parents—but they’ll be forced to as their inheritance shrinks to 40 cents on the dollar
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 31, 2026
1 day ago
The rise of 'conspicuous waiting': The 19th-century economic theory that explains why Gen Z posts their place in line
Retail
The rise of 'conspicuous waiting': The 19th-century economic theory that explains why Gen Z posts their place in line
By Tatiana SatauaJuly 31, 2026
1 day ago
Jensen Huang says ‘a lot’ of six-figure jobs in plumbing and construction will soon be unlocked because someone needs to build new AI centers
Success
Jensen Huang says ‘a lot’ of six-figure jobs in plumbing and construction will soon be unlocked because someone needs to build new AI centers
By Preston ForeAugust 1, 2026
5 hours ago
'Retiring backwards': How cold economic reality forced Gen X into something like the reverse of baby boomers' golden years
Success
'Retiring backwards': How cold economic reality forced Gen X into something like the reverse of baby boomers' golden years
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 31, 2026
1 day ago
Jensen Huang says this is the greatest time in history to start a business—and his advice is to stop overthinking it: 'How hard can it be?’
Success
Jensen Huang says this is the greatest time in history to start a business—and his advice is to stop overthinking it: 'How hard can it be?’
By Preston ForeJuly 31, 2026
1 day ago
Tim Cook signed off on his final Apple earnings call with a warning about a ‘100-year flood’ in memory chip pricing
Big Tech
Tim Cook signed off on his final Apple earnings call with a warning about a ‘100-year flood’ in memory chip pricing
By Alexei OreskovicJuly 30, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.