The COVID-19 vaccines are on track for a big recipe change this fall.
Today’s vaccines still contain the original coronavirus strain, the one that started the pandemic — even though that was long ago supplanted by mutated versions as the virus rapidly evolves.
Thursday, the Food and Drug Administration’s scientific advisers said the next round of shots in the U.S. should only include protection against the newest variants that are now dominant worldwide — a branch of the omicron family tree named XBB.
The committee didn’t vote to recommend which XBB subvariants should be targeted by updated boosters, though Pfizer told panelists it could have an XBB.1.5 booster ready as soon as July, and an XBB.1.16 booster in August. Novavax said it was prepared to offer an XBB.1.5 vaccine sometime this fall, and Moderna made a similar statement, Endpoint News reported. XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16 were estimated to be the first and second most common COVID variants in the U.S. as of June 10, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Omicron family
The World Health Organization has declined to assign a Greek letter to new COVID variants since omicron, saying that they don’t differ enough to warrant the designation. For ease of communication, Canadian biology professor Ryan Gregory and a team of variant trackers began assigning “street” or “common” names to so-called “high flying” variants they felt warranted monkiers. Referring to them all as simply “omicron” is an oversimplification, they contend. Gregory dubbed XBB “Gryphon,” an eagle-lion hybrid in Greek and other mythologies.
Gregory and other associated variant trackers have since assigned names to other XBB offspring, including “Kraken,” a Scandinavian sea monster, to XBB.1.5, and “Hippogryph,” a mythological horse-eagle hybrid, to XBB.1.
Beginning in late 2020, the WHO designated particularly concerning variants as VOCs, or variants of concern. The Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and omicron strains were all once considered VOCs, though all were eventually downgraded. Currently, the WHO has declared just two variants to be VOIs, or variants of interest—a step down from VOCs: XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16, according to a June 15 situation report. The organization has declared seven variants VUMs, or variants under monitoring—yet another step down in concern. They include XBB and three offspring, as well as BA.2.75 “Centaurus,” CH.1.1 “Orthrus,” and BQ.1 “Typhon.”
The WHO doesn’t use or acknowledge variant street names. But other organizations, like the World Health Network, do.
The FDA will make the final decision on the updated vaccine. Vaccine makers said during the meeting that they could have updated vaccines available within months, depending on the strain.
While infections have declined, the virus could be a real concern next winter, FDA’s vaccine chief Dr. Peter Marks said as the daylong meeting began.
“We’re concerned that we may have another wave of COVID-19 during a time when the virus has further evolved, immunity of the population has waned further, and we move indoors for wintertime,” he said.
Here are some things to know:
Why another round of shots?
The FDA had told Americans to expect an updated fall vaccine against COVID-19, just like they get a new flu shot every fall. Even though most of the population has either been infected or had at least one round of vaccinations, the coronavirus keeps churning out new varieties.
What’s in use in the U.S. now are combination shots from Pfizer and Moderna that mix the original strain with protection against last year’s most common omicron variants, called BA.4 and BA.5. But just 17% of Americans rolled up their sleeves for a combo booster.
And while the FDA did allow seniors and others at high risk to get an extra booster dose this spring, most people will be many months beyond their last shot by fall.
Those currently available shots do still help prevent severe disease and death even as XBB variants have taken over. But protection gradually wanes over time and was short-lived against milder infection even before the virus, inevitably, evolved again.
“We need a better vaccine. We should be updating it,” said one adviser, Dr. Eric Rubin, an infectious disease doctor at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston.
Sharpening protection
Last year when regulators were struggling to decide how to update the vaccine, a combo shot seemed like the safest bet. Omicron was pretty new, and there was no way to know how long it would stick around or if the next big coronavirus change would more resemble the original strain.
Keeping the original strain in the shot actually has a downside called “imprinting.” After repeated exposure to the original strain, people’s immune systems tended to recognize and respond more strongly to it than to the half of the new booster dose that was brand new.
The FDA advisory panel agreed that the fall shot should just target XBB variants. The World Health Organization’s vaccine advisers and European regulators recently made similar recommendations.
Predicting what will hit this winter
Another challenge: Deciding which XBB variant to target — since what’s spreading now likely will have mutated again by winter.
Regulators will be making their best guess, just like they do every year in setting the recipe for the fall flu vaccine.
The FDA has identified three XBB subtypes as the top strain choices. Vaccine makers already have been developing XBB-targeted formulas. At the meeting Thursday, there was a consensus that this fall’s vaccine target variant XBB.1.5, the most common version infecting people in recent months.
How many more shots?
Older adults and others at high risk because of seriously weak immune systems continue to have the highest rates of hospitalization from COVID-19 even as cases have declined. One question is whether they’ll be urged to get a single fall shot or be eligible for more than one.
Another is how many doses the youngest children who’ve never been vaccinated would need.
Ultimately, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will make the final recommendations on who should get the updated shot and when.
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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
