The altcoin market is $800 billion smaller than past cycles would suggest—and a shift in retail sentiment may have killed it.
A new estimate from 10x Research argues that the complex of non-Bitcoin tokens has been starved of capital this cycle, largely because retail investors, especially in South Korea, have turned to crypto-linked equities instead, while Bitcoin boomed on institutional flows. The estimate lands just weeks after a record liquidation wiped out swathes of the altcoin market, amplifying fears that the speculative playground for digital tokens beyond Bitcoin and Ether may never recover.
“Altcoin market capitalization would be roughly $800 billion higher if retail investors—especially in South Korea—hadn’t redirected their attention toward crypto-related stocks and other equities,” said Markus Thielen, CEO and head of research at 10x Research. In this cycle, “altcoins have failed to attract sufficient new capital,” he added.
Historically, South Korea’s crypto traders have shown a proclivity for altcoins, which in the past have accounted for more than 80% of total trading activity on local exchanges. That’s a stark contrast to global platforms, where Bitcoin and Ether together make up 50% or more of overall volumes.
In 2024, from Nov. 5 through Nov. 28, the daily average trading on Korean crypto exchanges amounted to about $9.4 billion, versus $7 billion for the Kospi, according to data from CCData and Korea Exchange. Since then, volumes have collapsed, according to 10x Research.
Diminished appetite among Korea’s traders is a key factor in altcoins’ under-performance, 10x said, and it could presage further declines.
A sharp recent selloff in crypto markets sparked by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions sent both Bitcoin and altcoins spiraling, but altcoins were hit hardest on a relative basis. Of the $380 billion erased, about $131 billion was concentrated in altcoins, 10x said at the time.
For altcoins, the shift in attention to Bitcoin and crypto stocks represents a “structural shift,” according to 10x report — a deficit that appears like unlikely to be made up any time soon.
A MarketVector index tracking the bottom half of the largest 100 digital assets has edged back up about 4% this week, after tumbling 23% the previous one. The index is down 57% this year. Bitcoin, is up about 3.7% this week to around $111,000, and 18% higher since December.