Musk’s everything app: Does it stand a chance?

Elon Musk took a big step forward this week in his quest to tear down what’s left of Twitter and build his longtime vision for an “everything app” containing messaging, media, shopping, and payments. That consisted of retiring the Twitter name and replacing its iconic bird logo with the new “X” brand name. It was a bold move to blow up the company’s valuable trademark, but not difficult to do. The hard part is what comes next.

If Musk is to pull off his plans to make X an everything app similar to China’s WeChat, he’ll have to overcome what seem like insurmountable obstacles. The most obvious one is regulation. Musk is already unpopular with the SEC and other federal agencies for his cavalier attitude toward corporate governance, his shilling of Dogecoin, and his constant trolling on social media. At a time when regulators are taking a hard look at tech monopolies, they are unlikely to welcome an “everything” service—especially one that includes crypto and has banking aspirations.

Then there is the matter of Musk’s politics. The Tesla CEO is heavily red-pilled, exulting in conspiracy theories and wanton cruelty, and promoting some of the worst people on the internet. This behavior plays well with tech bros and the Joe Rogan crowd, but it’s a big liability when you’re trying to woo back advertisers and middle-of-the-road consumers. An “everything” app needs everyone on it to succeed, and now millions of people want nothing to do with Musk’s new service.

And don’t forget about competition. It would be one thing to build an everything app 15 years ago before the likes of Facebook, YouTube, PayPal, and Amazon became dominant in their various verticals. Now, Musk must contend with these much-bigger giants that will fight like hell and try to kneecap Twitter/X if it tries too hard to step out of its traditional lane and onto their turf. Musk will also have to persuade users to ditch apps they use in favor of this new X thing—a tall order given that many people are fine using what they have, and would prefer not to roll the dice on Musk’s latest vision.

All of this means Musk’s grand plans for an everything app seem like so much pie in the sky. Still, it would be unwise to count him out. Musk has done the impossible before, not once but twice. At Tesla, he outfoxed General Motors and other incumbents, and made electric cars not just viable but cool as well. And in the case of SpaceX, he beat Boeing and all its friends in Washington, D.C., to bring competition to the space and rocket industry. So while Musk’s chances of turning X into a widely used super app feel like the longest of long shots, it’s not impossible he will pull this off.

Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts

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