Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni, who has been beating the drum about another Roaring Twenties since the decade began, is even more optimistic on stocks this year as recent earnings are driving a meltup.
On Sunday, the market veteran hiked his year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 8,250 from 7,700—making him the most bullish among top Wall Street forecasters. The higher target represents an 11.5% jump from Friday’s close, adding to a year-to-date gain of 8%.
Yardeni’s call now tops views at Oppenheimer (8,100), Deutsche Bank (8,000), Morgan Stanley (7,800), Citigroup (7,700), JPMorgan (7,600), and Goldman Sachs (7,600).
To be sure, some firms will likely boost their predictions as more earning roll in. But JPMorgan already raised its view on the S&P 500 late last month, reversing a cut it made earlier to 7,200.
Yardeni pointed out that while he has been upbeat on earnings, Wall Street is already ahead of him, even after lifting his outlook.
“We’ve never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have in recent months,” he said in a note. “The result has been an earnings-led meltup in the stock market.”
He sees earnings per share among the large-cap companies coming in at $330 this year, up from an earlier view for $310, with 2027 EPS seen at $375, up from $350.
Similarly, his forecasts for S&P 500 revenue per share went by $100 for both 2026 and 2027 to $2,200 and $2,300, respectively, nearly matching the current consensus.
“Our key assumption is that the economy will remain resilient, and so will earnings,” Yardeni added. “That’s been our mantra since we first started writing about the Roaring 2020s during the summer of 2020.”
Not only did the U.S. economy bounce back quickly from the COVID pandemic, it weathered the supply shock from Russia’s war on Ukraine, aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, and President Donald Trump’s trade war.
In fact, Yardeni hiked the probability that the Roaring 2020s will continue to 80% from 60% simply by merging it with his meltup scenario, which had 20% odds.
Any meltdown will represent a buying opportunity because it won’t trigger a recession or bear market, he added, while keeping his recession odds at 20%.
Still, he maintained his recommendation on global stocks, particularly those in emerging markets excluding China, saying there are relatively cheaper buying opportunities overseas.
The upgraded S&P 500 forecast also comes as U.S. stock indexes have hit new highs, rebounding sharply from the selloff triggered the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
Despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and oil inventories rapidly dwindling, investors are betting that the current ceasefire will be extended with a lasting peace eventually reopening the strait.
That’s led to a stark split between Wall Street analysts and energy experts, who have been warning that oil supplies could head off a cliff in the coming months or even weeks, dragging the global economy down in the process.
Yardeni acknowledged the risk of renewed fighting and the possibility it could produce stagflation, forcing central banks to hike rates and prompting bond vigilantes to push up yields.
“Nevertheless, for now, we are sticking with our 10,000 target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2029,” he wrote. “It might arrive ahead of schedule.”
