• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock

2

‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion

3

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic

1

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock

2

‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion

3

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
CommentaryProductivity

The U.S. leads in 14 of 18 industries shaping the future economy — but the lead isn’t guaranteed

By
Kevin Russell
Kevin Russell
,
Chris Bradley
Chris Bradley
, and
Kweilin Ellingrud
Kweilin Ellingrud
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Kevin Russell
Kevin Russell
,
Chris Bradley
Chris Bradley
, and
Kweilin Ellingrud
Kweilin Ellingrud
Down Arrow Button Icon
May 6, 2026, 8:30 AM ET
Kevin Russell is a senior fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute. Chris Bradley is a senior partner at McKinsey & Company and serves as a director of the McKinsey Global Institute. Kweilin Ellingrud is a senior partner and director of the McKinsey Global Institute.
mckinsey
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on May 04, 2026 in New York City. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Geopolitics are dominating headlines, and trade conflict is accelerating. In this context, countries and companies need to position themselves well in the right industries to sustain profitable growth. What are those industries?

Recommended Video

The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) identified 18 “arenas” in 2024—industries that stand out for their dynamism and future potential in both revenues and profits. They include an “AI foundation” set of industries (semiconductors, cloud services, and AI software and services); digitization (digital advertising, E-commerce, streaming video, cybersecurity, and video games); electrification (EVs, batteries, nuclear fission), hard tech (robotics, space, shared autonomous vehicles, commercial drones, modular construction); and new bio frontiers (drugs for obesity and related conditions and non-medical biotech).  

In research published this spring, MGI tracked the development of those 18 arenas and showed them accelerating sharply. Among them are AI-related industries, digital industries like e-commerce, digital advertising, and video games, and other industries such as obesity drugs, robotics, modular construction, and commercial drones.

Combined, MGI finds that the 18 arenas added $18 trillion in market capitalization from 2022–25 and could generate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040. The arenas are growing significantly faster than other sectors and deliver higher returns. In short, they are where the economic action is.

Right now, the United States and Greater China are by far the most prominent players in these industries, with 50% of the revenues coming from U.S.-based companies and 30% coming from companies based in Greater China. MGI also identified nine “omniscalers”—companies that play leading roles in three or more arenas. Omniscalers are important because they can deploy their strengths in capital, talent, and capabilities to create economies of scope and scale across multiple arenas. So it is notable that six of the world’s omniscalers are based in the United States, two in China, and one in South Korea.

But there are important dynamics at work outside the omniscalers. Firms headquartered in Greater China are strong in arenas related to electrification, where they have the scale, vertical integration, and manufacturing intensity that the United States does not. Supported by strong foundations in industrial and consumer electronics, Japan and South Korea have increased their share of market cap in robotics, modular construction, and video games. Europe leads in market cap in only one arena, nonmedical biotech, but has specialized strengths in batteries and obesity drugs.

While all 18 arenas are growing, a few are accelerating at something approaching warp speed. An “artificial intelligence (AI) foundation set” of arenas—semiconductors, cloud services, and AI software/services—has dominated growth in the arenas since 2022, adding $500 billion in revenues and $10.8 trillion in market cap.

The numbers are impressive. If anything, though, they understate the importance of the AI foundation arenas. AI can improve performance and lower costs across the board, while enabling new business models and technology resets. For example, AI is enabling content creation, agentic commerce, and blurred boundaries among the digital arenas like e-commerce, digital ads, and streaming. And the combination of AI and batteries is revealing new possibilities in hard tech, including shared autonomous vehicles, robotics, and commercial activities in space.

For business leaders, the key is to understand their company’s position in relation to the arenas. The first question to ask is the simplest: Are we in an arena? If so, speed is of the essence in reallocating resources and in adapting governance to  move with agility.

Companies that are not competing directly in an arena may be more exposed than they realize, through impact across the value chain and opportunities for reconfigured operations. Companies that ignore the new dynamics the arenas are creating will likely be left behind. 

Whether you are in an arena or affected by one, it is critical to invest capital with the arenas in mind, either to defend access to critical inputs such as computing power, energy, and supply chain capacity or to fund entry into new markets. And while the recent growth of the arenas has been striking, many companies have deployed enormous capital — and sustained profitable growth, not just market cap gains, is the true measure of success.

🞐 🞐 🞐

The 18 arenas are already transforming the world—at the individual, household, company, city, country, and global level. No one can know whether they will all continue to outperform; indeed, completely new ones could emerge. Still, the direction of economic travel is unmistakable. Since 2022, the market cap of the 18 arenas has grown four times as fast as other industries and 10x as fast in revenue growth.

Bolstered by deep capital markets that support the scale-up of existing companies as well as promising new entrants, U.S. companies are well positioned, with the majority of market cap in 14 of the 18 arenas. Of the top seven AI foundation companies, six are American. That vitality has helped boost U.S. growth and productivity above that of many other advanced economies.

That is a promising position, not a guaranteed one. The risks and rewards of leadership in the arenas are substantial—and ever increasing. For companies in the United States, staying ahead in the arenas of competition will require nimble and bold actions.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

About the Authors
By Kevin Russell
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By Chris Bradley
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By Kweilin Ellingrud
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Commentary

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Commentary

Sumeet Agrawal is VP of Product Management (Data, AI Governance & Context Engineering for Agentic Systems) at Salesforce.
CommentaryAI agents
Salesforce VP on the leaky AI pipeline: why cheaper tokens won’t fix enterprise AI
By Sumeet AgrawalJuly 20, 2026
14 hours ago
japan
CommentaryJapan
Japan’s monetary conundrum — why the yen hit a 40-year low as interest rates hit a 31-year high
By Steve H. Hanke and John GreenwoodJuly 20, 2026
15 hours ago
ryan
CommentaryLeadership
I’ve interviewed 700 leaders. The ones outsourcing their thinking to AI lose their best people first
By Ryan HawkJuly 20, 2026
16 hours ago
ranch
CommentaryWorld Cup
Ranch dressing is quietly doing America’s diplomacy for it
By David BohigianJuly 19, 2026
2 days ago
jt
CommentaryRetirement
Gen X built their whole identity on never needing help. Retirement is the one door they can’t unlock alone
By Jeanne ThompsonJuly 19, 2026
2 days ago
biden
CommentaryLeadership
Ginsburg and Biden’s blind spot: when leaders don’t know when to leave
By Michael SonnenfeldtJuly 19, 2026
2 days ago

Most Popular

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock
Success
Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 20, 2026
10 hours ago
‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion
Success
‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion
By Sydney LakeJuly 20, 2026
14 hours ago
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
AI
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
By Jason MaJuly 18, 2026
2 days ago
Warren Buffett says his $147 billion investing career was an accident: ‘I may be one of the 10 luckiest in the world’
Future of Work
Warren Buffett says his $147 billion investing career was an accident: ‘I may be one of the 10 luckiest in the world’
By Sarah GlodekJuly 20, 2026
21 hours ago
Current price of silver as of Monday, July 20, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Monday, July 20, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 20, 2026
18 hours ago
Power companies are using eminent domain to seize land for data centers as 70% of Americans say not in my backyard
AI
Power companies are using eminent domain to seize land for data centers as 70% of Americans say not in my backyard
By Aaron Walayat and The ConversationJuly 19, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.