The transformation of warfare since Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago is also changing how countries must adapt their defense industries, and Kyiv is leading the way, according to former CIA director, retired Gen. David Petraeus.
In an interview with World at Stake earlier this week, he called Ukraine the “arsenal of democracy,” a term first used to describe the U.S. during World War II as it sustained allies with weapons and supplies.
“Ukraine in the future, I think, will be the most important military industrial complex in the free world,” Petraeus said. “It is producing cutting-edge unmanned systems, not just in the air, but on the ground and at sea.”
Ukraine’s integration of hardware and software is also extraordinary, he noted, adding the pace of innovation is constant. Software updates come in less than a week, and hardware changes come every few weeks.
In fact, Ukraine has recently developed new, more advanced drones with longer ranges that have evaded air defenses, allowing them to attack vital oil facilities deep inside Russian territory.
That has devastated Russia’s ability to export oil, preventing the Kremlin from capitalizing on the spike in crude prices since the U.S. and Israel launched their war on Iran.
“This has become an industrial ecosystem producing the most impressive unmanned systems, I think, in the world, certainly in the free world,” Petraeus said. “And when the guns fall silent—as manufacturing is done not just here [in Ukraine] but in other countries with the money coming back here—I think Ukraine will reinforce its position as the arsenal of democracy.”
Ukraine is already helping countries in the Persian Gulf defend themselves from Iranian drones, which have demonstrated the ability to penetrate their U.S.-made defenses.
On Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian military personnel have shot down Iranian Shahed drones in multiple Middle Eastern countries. Ukraine is receiving weapons from the Gulf states in return, along with oil, diesel, and financial arrangements, he explained.
In addition to Ukraine’s rapid innovation cycles, its ability to develop cheap drones and mass-produce them provide advantages on the battlefield as well. Ukraine makes thousands every day, and they are now responsible for the vast majority of casualties.
That’s in contrast with the U.S. military, which relies on so-called exquisite weapons that are more advanced but exponentially more costly and aren’t produced at mass scale. The U.S. and its allies are reportedly grappling with shrinking stockpiles of their most sophisticated munitions.
The mismatch between the cheap drones Iran is launching and the expensive interceptors used to shoot them down has alarmed some in the defense sector.
At the Hill & Valley Forum Foundation event last month, CrowdStrike cofounder Dmitri Alperovitch warned NATO doesn’t have the production capacity and the supply chains to wage a long war.
Despite Russia having a much smaller GDP than NATO’s combined output, it still outproduces the alliance in artillery, armored vehicles, glide bombs, drones, and even certain types of missiles, he added.
“That is a choice,” said Alperovitch, who is also chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator think tank. “It’s not because we cannot produce this stuff.”
If Tesla can churn out 500,000 vehicles a year from one factory, then the U.S. should be able to make 10,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles, he argued.
Instead, the U.S. military typically procured about 90 Tomahawks per year before the Iran war, though the maximum rate of production is estimated to be 2,330 per year, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“We have optimized our defense industrial base for just-in-time delivery, for no surge capacity, and basically small-batch production,” Alperovitch said. “But munitions and weapon systems are not artisanal gin. And what we need to do is not treat it as a procurement line, but think about it as strategic capacity.”
