For many observers, Donald Trump’s prosecution of the war against Iran has been nothing short of confounding — contradictory remarks, a seemingly improvisational strategy, and a nonchalance toward risks and costs that would paralyze a traditional commander-in-chief.
A century and a half ago, author John Churton Collins advised, “In prosperity our friends know us; in adversity we know our friends.” America’s allies are confused. Pundits are reeling. But the surprise is misplaced.
Trump’s approach to the Iranian conflict is not an anomaly. It is lifted directly from a consistent playbook he has relied on for decades. The president’s actions are rarely the random impulses they appear to be. Instead, they follow consistent, discernible patterns of behavior. Here are five of what we call Trump’s Ten Commandments, as we lay out in our new book of the same title. He’s exhibited them throughout his career, and he’s displaying them again in his conduct of this war.
1. Centralizing All Power
Unlike previous military engagements — which typically followed careful interagency planning with input from domain experts — Trump has bypassed the traditional national security apparatus entirely. Instead, he is managing the entire war through his signature “hub-and-spokes” leadership model. In Trump’s universe, he must be the sun around which everything revolves. Rather than deferring to seasoned military leaders, the intelligence community, or veteran foreign service officers, Trump has centralized war-making authority squarely in his own hands, relying on a tight circle of close advisors while other high-ranking officials — in his own administration and across foreign governments — learn what is happening by watching the news.
Freed of institutional constraints, the result is a war directed not by consensus but by singular, unconstrained instinct of Trump and Trump alone — limited, arguably, only by what financial markets will tolerate and how long the munitions stockpile will last.
2. The Punch in the Face
Where traditional diplomacy builds trust incrementally, Trump starts by striking the first blow and staking out the most maximalist position imaginable to create immediate leverage. By decapitating Iran’s leadership and neutralizing core infrastructure on day one, Trump bypassed standard diplomatic escalation ladders entirely. It is the geopolitical equivalent of his classic real estate strategy — inflicting maximum blunt trauma as the opening move, not the last resort.
3. Divide and Conquer
Trump has long viewed the traditional coalitions built by his predecessors — NATO, the EU — as constraints on his own authority rather than assets.
It is entirely consistent, then, that Trump went to war without consulting many of America’s historical allies in Europe, who were left in the cold. Eschewing multilateral consensus, he publicly chastised several allies for their “lukewarm” enthusiasm, demanding they deploy warships and police the waterway themselves. At the same time, he has kept Israel and the Gulf nations close, coordinating carefully in what Israeli President Isaac Herzog described as NATO-like in its intimacy, while talking nearly daily with top Gulf leaders according to New York Times reporting. In this way, he treats foreign nations much like he treats his own subordinates — pitting them against one another so that he alone rises above the chaos as the all-powerful arbiter.
4. The Wall of Sound
To control the narrative, Trump relies on what might be called a Perpetual Noise Machine — an overwhelming barrage of sudden moves and outrageos statements designed to distract and disorient. The sheer scale of the Iran strikes has dominated news coverage since the conflict began, erasing prior negative news cycles from domestic affordability concerns to foreign policy friction over Venezuela and Greenland.
By feeding contradictory remarks to the press practically hourly and issuing escalating threats against Iran’s oil infrastructure — will he or won’t he strike? — Trump keeps the media and international community focused entirely on his unpredictable next move. This relentless cascade ensures he dominates the news cycle, exhausts opponents, and prevents any cohesive counter-strategy from forming.
5. Donald the Great
Trump views himself in messianic terms — the leader who alone can accomplish what no predecessor could. By framing the 2026 war as the decisive strike to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and the culmination of 40 years of Iranian aggression, he casts himself as a historic savior. Critics and supporters alike note that he appears increasingly convinced there is nothing he cannot do. Where traditional presidents weigh constitutional constraints, congressional approval, and allied consultation, Trump views those guardrails with the same dismissiveness he has applied to institutional limits his entire career, as Gulliver viewed the Lilliputians.
Trump’s war with Iran is not an anomaly. It is the ultimate expression of a leadership style decades in the making. The most useful thing global leaders — and observers — can do right now is stop being surprised. The playbook has always been visible. The only question is whether those on the receiving end are finally willing to read it.
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