Hours before President Donald Trump is set to deliver his State of the Union address, a leading nonpartisan budget watchdog has launched a blistering critique of the administration’s economic policies, escalating a war of words with the White House over tariffs, tax cuts, and the soaring national deficit.
On Tuesday, Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), released a scathing statement warning that the president will be speaking to a nation “more indebted than it has ever been outside a war or emergency,” contradicting the fiscal victories the administration is expected to champion before a joint session of Congress on primetime television.
The timing of the release comes on the heels of a fiery weekend clash between MacGuineas and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The friction ignited last Friday when the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump’s sweeping “emergency” tariffs, implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), were in fact illegal.
Following the ruling, the CRFB published an analysis noting that the loss of these tariffs would blow a massive $2 trillion revenue hole in the federal budget over the next decade. Without that revenue, the CRFB warned, the national debt could surge to an unprecedented 131% of GDP by 2036, up from previously projected baselines of 120%, citing estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
Despite the CRFB’s findings aligning with the administration’s warning of a revenue shortfall thanks to the ruling, Bessent took issue with the potential deficit and went into a tirade against the CRFB, with MacGuineas receiving the brunt of his remarks.
Appearing on Fox News with host Maria Bartiromo on Sunday, Secretary Bessent unleashed a harsh personal attack on MacGuineas, calling her numbers “wrong” and insisting that federal revenue would remain unchanged.
“Maya MacGuineas should be ashamed,” Bessent declared, suggesting she should “take the word ‘responsible’ out of her organization’s name.” Bessent argued that revenue projections would hold steady because the president had moved fast to replace the struck-down levies with new 10% tariffs—then quickly ratcheted up to 15% a day later—authorized under the 1974 Trade Act.
MacGuineas quickly dismissed the Treasury Secretary’s broadside as “a bit of an odd response,” noting that her organization actually agrees with the administration’s goal of using tariff revenues to improve the nation’s grim fiscal outlook. The CRFB had previously praised the soaring tariff revenue as a “bright spot in an otherwise gloomy fiscal picture,” although it always cautioned that temporary replacement tariffs alone were not enough to satisfy the country’s fiscal needs, and they must be paired with alternative budgetary savings, significant spending cuts, or other revenue. Two of the CRFB’s primary recommendations specifically target Trump’s legislative agenda: scaling back recent tax cuts and reducing government spending.
The watchdog group has consistently pointed to the administration’s broader domestic agenda as the true driver of the debt crisis. In her Tuesday statement, MacGuineas noted that recent CBO projections are “as severe as they are sobering.” She took aim at Trump’s signature domestic achievement, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, warning that while it might provide a short-term economic “sugar rush,” the CBO projects it will add a staggering $4.2 trillion to the national debt through 2034. The CRFB has previously projected the bill’s generous tax breaks and spending could ultimately add up to $32 trillion over 30 years.
As Trump prepares to address an electorate eager for answers on “kitchen-table affordability issues” and retirement security, the CRFB painted a dire picture of the consequences of this unchecked borrowing. The organization cautioned that the debt could even slow down long-term economic growth. By 2036, total interest payments on the national debt will approach nearly $17 trillion, with annual payments expected to eclipse $2 trillion by 2035.
Rather than taking a victory lap, MacGuineas urged the president to use his State of the Union address to recognize the bipartisan nature of the debt problem. She called on lawmakers to embrace an aggressive 3% deficit-to-GDP target, shore up Social Security and Medicare before they face insolvency, and endorse a bipartisan debt commission. With the United States’ 250th birthday approaching in a matter of months, she argued, Americans deserve to know their leaders are “taking our fiscal situation seriously and are prepared to deal with it effectively.”
For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.
