U.S. markets are closed today for Thanksgiving, but S&P 500 futures were flat by midnight after the index closed up 0.69% yesterday, its fourth straight day of gains. Investors appear satisfied with the index’s current position, just 1% below its recent all-time high. Asian and European markets were flat or up; India’s Nifty 50 rose to an all-time high.
As we head into the December holiday season, investors have good reasons to be jolly: The macro data appears to be lining up perfectly to push the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in its final meeting of the year. The rarely wrong CME FedWatch futures index currently favors the chance of a cut to 3.5% at 85%.
The data fuelling investors’ confidence that the Fed is about to deliver a new round of cheaper money (a move which generally bodes well for stocks) was summed up by Goldman Sachs in a note to clients this morning titled, ‘Weaker Job Growth and Lower Inflation.’
Supporting the job market and keeping inflation low are the Fed’s two main goals, of course. So if the Fed believes that inflation is under control but employment looks weak, then a cut is very much on the cards. A note from UBS this morning predicted the Fed will cut “a couple of times over the next six months.”
That scenario explains why stocks have risen for four straight sessions despite a dump of negative news about tech stocks:
- Nvidia is down nearly 6% this month on fears that AI is a bubble. HSBC published a brutal research note earlier this week arguing that OpenAI—one of Nvidia’s most important customers—will need another $207 billion in funding to survive through 2030.
- Strategy, Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury company, is down 40% this month as the collapse in the price of cryptocurrency severely challenges his business model. Saylor’s company is now worth less than the Bitcoin it holds, according to the Financial Times.
Retail investors, however, appear to be ignoring the idiosyncratic problems of those two companies, according to JPMorgan. They net purchased $5.8 billion in stocks this week, a reversal from the previous week when net buying was just $4.3 billion, according to Arun Jain and his colleagues.
“Retail sentiment quickly shifted this week—from deeply negative on Friday (first net selling day in more than 3 months, 8%ile), to exhilarated on Monday (largest buying day in 5 months, 92%ile),” they told clients.
Also helping is the fact that companies have made $1 trillion in stock buybacks over the last 12 months, according to MorningStar.
Put all that together and it’s no surprise that the S&P appears poised to make a new attempt to regain its all-time high prior to the next rate-setting meeting at the Fed, scheduled for December 9 and 10.
Here’s a snapshot of global markets this morning:
- S&P 500 futures were flat at midnight. The last session closed up 0.69%.
- STOXX Europe 600 was flat in early trading.
- The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 1.23% in early trading.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.85%.
- China’s CSI 300 was flat.
- The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.66%.
- India’s NIFTY 50 is up 0.039%.
- Bitcoin rose to $91.6K.
