- As peak trade season approaches, import volumes at the Port of Los Angeles fell 19% in May compared to April and 9% from a year ago as a result of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The Port of LA’s executive director warns fewer shipments may mean higher prices on fewer available goods, starting for back-to-school shopping and impacting even winter holiday products.
Steep tariffs have continued to slash the volume of U.S. imports, and consumers have yet to see the brunt of their impacts, according to new data from the Port of Los Angeles and Yale Budget Lab.
Import volumes through the Port of Los Angeles, the country’s latest trade center, fell 19% in May compared to the month before and 9% from a year ago as a result of President Donald Trump’s trade policy.
Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka told reporters on Friday the higher prices as a result of tariffs will likely mean fewer, and more expensive, goods for consumers toward the end of the year.
“Buying products out of China right now still costs one-and-a-half times more than it did earlier this year, making products of all types extremely expensive and creating a decision platform for companies that not necessarily is going to be in our best interest as consumers will likely see lower inventories, fewer selections on store shelves, and higher prices in some cases,” he said.
Last month’s import declines came despite Trump backing off some of his highest tariff rates.
In April, many of the goods leaving China for the U.S. were taxed at 145% before a May trade deal lowered tariffs by 115%. But economists have said that even returning the levies to pre-“Liberation Day” levels is still high enough to wipe out trade between the U.S. and China.
The summer marks the beginning of peak trade season, a bustle of shipment activity in preparation for major shopping events later in the year. But as back-to-school and Halloween shipment periods come and go, Seroka said the port has been “very slow,” and warned of fewer goods and higher prices for not just the fall, but the winter as well.
“That cargo for those micro seasons needs to be here on the ground right now,” he said. “I don’t necessarily see that in inventory levels.”
He added: “Retailers are not telling me that they’re boosting inventory levels to have wide selections on products beginning that Thanksgiving week and running to the end of the year.”
Emptier shelves, higher prices
Beyond consumers facing emptier shelves in stores, they will feel the impact of tariffs on their wallets. Prices on items like shoes have jumped 31% in the short term as a result of 2025 tariffs, according to June data from the Yale Budget Lab. Apparel prices more broadly have increased 28% for consumers in the short-run.
For consumers, more expensive goods means an average 1.5% increase in price levels that cost a household on average $2,500 in disposable income, per the data. While most consumers will see steeper prices, lower-income shoppers will be feeling the biggest stretch: Consumers at the bottom end of the income scale will see a 2.5% increase in price levels.
Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale, argued the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, not just higher prices, has contributed to a consumer pullback.
“Consumers and businesses who don’t know what tariff policy will be at the end of this press conference—let alone a week, a month, an hour from now—[are] sitting on their hands and not making all of the long-run purchasing investment and hiring decisions that they would otherwise make if they had certainty about what policy would be,” he told reporters.
As shoppers raced to get ahead of tariffs, consumer spending rose in March, and first-quarter spending on durable goods increased 2.3% from the prior year to $2.2 trillion.
“It’s very clear that the main thing driving that shift in durables was anticipation of tariffs,” Tedeschi said. In April, when tariffs increased, spending slowed.
If tariffs level off, he warned price increases will likely stick around as a result of businesses adapting to and making substitutions in their supply chains. Yale Budget Lab calculated a 15% increase in apparel prices and 10% increase in textile prices in the long run, for example.
“Even after the economy, consumers, and businesses have a chance to react,” Tedeschi said, “that is not going to be able to mitigate all of the price increase.”
