The world’s richest man said the world’s most powerful man will drag the United States into recession during the second half of 2025. The comment, which Elon Musk made about President Donald Trump’s economic policies, came on Thursday on his social media site X amid an epic falling out between the two men who claimed to be close friends just days ago.
Musk’s comments came in response to an X user who described Trump’s aggressive tariff policy—which economists regard as a form of tax is driving up the price of goods—as “super stupid.” The billionaire replied the tariffs “will cause a recession in the second half of this year.”
The Trump tariffs will cause a recession in the second half of this year https://t.co/rbBC11iynE
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 5, 2025
Musk’s tweet was one of several broadsides the Tesla CEO launched at the President on Thursday, along with a call for his impeachment and a salacious—and unproven—allegation Trump’s name is in unreleased FBI records about the pedophile Jeffrey Epstein. Trump, for his part, shot back on his own Truth Social platform, including with a declaration that he would revoke government contracts with Musk’s companies.
Musk’s recession prediction comes during a delicate at a time when the President’s economic agenda is the source of growing concern among executives, including JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who warned last week of a “crack in the bond market” as investors get skittish about the fiscal solvency of the U.S.
Those jitters have grown in recent weeks as Trump seeks to push through a “big beautiful bill” to cut taxes that the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office says will add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.
Meanwhile, Trump’s signature tariff policy—which has resulted in higher prices on imports and empty containers at U.S. ports—remains unpopular in many quarters. On Thursday, members of Congress questioned Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, including Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa) who claimed the tariffs have led Wal-Mart to raise the price of bananas by 8%. Lutnick replied that tariffs can be avoided by building in the U.S., but Dean retorted “We cannot build bananas in America.”
As of Thursday afternoon, it was unclear how the Musk-Trump spat will affect the progress of Trump’s “big beautiful” tax bill, or if the President would follow through on his plans to end contracts with Musk’s companies.
The falling-out has though had one immediate effect: On Thursday, the price of Tesla shares fell over 14% on a day when the broader market posted gains.