President Trump visited the Middle East this week to much fanfare, pomp and, of course, circumstance as he aims to lower prices at the pump with more oil production from OPEC.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other OPEC countries are in agreement—they also want to churn out more oil and gain global market share—aftre years of voluntary cutbacks. But they decidedly do not want to lower oil and fuel prices because of their need to balance big national budgets.
So, what’s the solution? Using increased OPEC volumes to fill the depleted U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), says Mukesh Sahdev, global head of oil commodity markets for consulting form Rystad Energy.
The idea is that using Middle Eastern crude oil to fill the Texas and Louisiana salt caverns that comprise the SPR would help the Saudis and the rest of OPEC without dragging already weak oil prices much lower. That’s because the barrels would be kept out of commercial marketplaces and have a limited impact on worldwide supply and demand.
“I know this has not been talked much about in his visit, but I can clearly see a strategic play,” Sahdev told Fortune. “OPEC will increase production, and that increased production could be bought by the U.S. to fill the SPR and be ready for the summer.”
The increased OPEC output combined with Trump’s fixation on lower gasoline prices also fit in with all the massive and lofty promises the Saudis and UAE made this week. Those countries need the funds to make good on their pledges for business partnerships with America, including Saudi Arabia’s pledge to invest $600 billion in the U.S. and Abu Dhabi’s commitment to build a huge data center complex.
“If Trump wants the money out of the Middle East and into the U.S., they have to earn it as well,” Sahdev said. “If oil prices fall much further, then they will not earn that money.
“I think the signal is very clear that extra OPEC barrels will flow into the U.S. market,” he added.
Refining the plans
The European benchmark for oil that’s closely watched by OPEC is currently hovering near a relatively low $65 per barrel. The Saudis need $80 per barrel to safely balance the kingdom’s budget. And, if prices dip further, then the U.S. oil sector suffers and really starts to scale back more dramatically.
Trump’s visit to the Middle East coincides with a renewed U.S. demand for the region’s oil thanks to a confluence of other economic factors.
The U.S. refining system is mostly configured to run heavier or medium barrels of sour crude oil, as opposed to the light, sweet oil that comes out of West Texas shale. The U.S. exports lots of its shale oil, but also imports heavier barrels from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and the Middle East to run through its refineries. Tariffs, sanctions, and financial struggles have led to fewer of those heavier barrels coming from the Americas.
That means the U.S. needs more Middle Eastern crude for its refineries, Sahdev said. Already, Saudi Arabia and Iraq have ramped up exports to the U.S. ahead of the busy summer driving season.
“With the summer peak demand coming, they need the right kind of crude oil,” he said. “And, for any strategic, geopolitical, or military ventures, the SPR in the U.S. needs to be filled.”
Sahdev believes it is “no coincidence” the pending—but currently stalled—U.S. House budget seeks $1.5 billion to replenish and maintain the SPR. The salt cavern facilities have the capacity to store about 727 million barrels, and the SPR currently holds just 400 million barrels. The SPR sat at nearly 700 million barrels when Trump first took office in 2017 and then dipped down to 638 million barrels when Biden took office. The Biden administration then began selling it off more rapidly to help lower fuel prices coming out of the pandemic.
Relying on more barrels from select OPEC nations also gives Trump more leeway with oil sanctions on key producers Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The could potentially prevent those nations from exporting more barrels, and further help steady oil prices.
Eyes on OPEC
OPEC and its key allies, a group called OPEC+, already shocked oil markets in April—the same time Trump announced his new tariff policy—with pledges to raise production volumes by more than 2 million barrels per day by late 2025.
But context is important, said Michael Cohen, BP chief US economist and head of oil and refining, speaking at a Houston energy conference this week.
“It’s very clear there’s been a significant sacrifice in the market share” from OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia, since 2017, Cohen said. “That’s only a fraction of the total amount OPEC has taken off the market.”
Collectively, OPEC+ has taken 5.86 million barrels per day of oil offline since 2022 until this year—more than 5% of global demand—to help strengthen oil markets, partly in response to rising U.S. production and because of slowing global demand growth.
Meanwhile, the U.S. was “blowing all of that out of proportion” and growing from 8.8 million barrels of oil a day at the beginning of 2017 to nearly 13.3 million barrels daily in 2024, essentially a whopping 50% increase to new record highs.
The Saudis can easily produce more than 10.5 million barrels per day, but the kingdom has held production to 9 million barrels per day or less since mid-2023 until now. The Saudis are now ramping up to about 9.5 million barrels daily by late fall.
“That’s not that big of an increase,” Cohen said.
