- An eerie calm has settled over global stock markets in the last 18 hours as most indexes reported only minor moves, with many of them trading flat. The VIX fear index has declined 22% in the last five days — suggesting that investors are expecting less upcoming drama from the Trump Administration than they have recently faced.
The White House has repeatedly announced aggressive measures on trade only to walk them back, offer loopholes, or delay their introduction. Sure enough, early Tuesday CNN reported that U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted that a new deal would be struck on auto tariffs, reducing their total effect on the industry.
Stocks were buoyed by that news in trading on global indexes this morning. Most markets barely budged, with many trading flat.
Here’s a snapshot of where equities stand prior to the opening bell in New York:
- The S&P 500 was flat at 5,528.75 yesterday. It remains down 6% YTD.
- Futures in the S&P were up 0.23% this morning, pre-open.
- The Nasdaq Composite was marginally negative yesterday, dragged down by Nvidia which lost 2%.
- Japan’s Topix was up 0.86% this morning.
- Other Asian markets were largely flat this morning.
- The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.35% in early trading.
- Bitcoin is now over $95K.
Although Trump has been the worst president for U.S. stocks since Gerald Ford, the S&P 500 looks like it might be struggling to make a comeback. It has gone up for five straight trading sessions. That begs the question: Are stocks about to climb the “wall of worry”?
Stocks (might be) climbing the wall of worry
The “wall of worry” concept describes the counterituitive phenomenon when stocks, pummelled by an onslaught of bad news, nonetheless inch their way upwards over time. The assumption is that because the bad news is now known, and therefore no longer a surprise, investors can make better bets on what they think the future will bring.
Already there are signs that Trump’s tariff chaos is creating opportunities in the market for some. Europe, for instance, was long looked upon by U.S. investors as the place where innovation goes to die. But under Trump’s new tariff regime, and his retraction from NATO, investment is flooding into the continent as EU governments ramp up their fiscal and infrastructure spending.
“Trump’s aggressive policies may inadvertently strengthen Europe’s economic resilience, presenting long-term investment potential despite short-term volatility, Saxo’s Jacob Falkencrone told clients in a note published this morning. “Europe is shifting towards strategic independence driven by geopolitical events, creating attractive investment opportunities in defence, renewable energy, technology, and localised production.”