- In today’s CEO Daily: Diane Brady on new opportunities and challenges in Asia.
- The big story: Trump’s attacks on Powell have investors fleeing U.S. assets.
- The markets: Steep loss of confidence in the U.S.
- Analyst notes from Macquarie, RBC, JPMorgan, and UBS, all on the Trump-Powell situation.
- Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.
Good morning. As someone who spends much of my day talking to U.S. and global business leaders, I’ve noticed an uptick in travel to Washington. But I’ve also noticed an increased desire among business leaders to understand what’s happening beyond Washington, especially in fast-growing economies across Asia and the Middle East.
More than ever, CEOs appreciate the power of global gatherings that bring together leaders from business, government and stakeholder groups around big opportunities and challenges. So I’m excited to let you know about the ASEAN-GCC-China and ASEAN-GCC Economic Forums that Fortune is jointly hosting in Kuala Lumpur on May 27 and 28 with the Government of Malaysia, led by the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry.
We’re hosting these events in conjunction with the inaugural ASEAN-GCC-China Summit, the 2nd ASEAN-GCC Summit and 46th ASEAN Summit, which means C-suite leaders will have a chance to join discussions with senior government officials and business leaders from China, the Association of Southeast Asian Nation’s 10 member states and the six nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council. Together, these economies account for more than one-fifth of global GDP. They’re also forging new ties and relationships that will lead to new business opportunities.
The theme is “Partners in Progress: Towards a Sustainable, Inclusive Tomorrow.” I can’t think of a better time to come together around that, and will share more details in the coming weeks. In the meantime, if you would like to find out more or request an invitation, email agef@fortune.com.
More news below.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
Top news
Stocks slump on Trump’s Powell attacks. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were all down more than 2% at Monday’s close as President Trump doubled down on his attacks on Fed chair Jerome Powell. The president previously called for Powell to go, but yesterday called him “Mr. Too Late, a major loser.” Gold hit record highs, though the dollar fell to a three-year low.
There was a selloff in the bond markets, too. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose 0.02% to 4.43%; the yield on the 30-year went up 0.02% to 4.93%. Among the sellers were Japanese pension funds and banks, which ditched $20 billion worth.
The dollar’s decline continued. It’s now down 9.4% against the DXY index of foreign currencies.
- The markets this morning: The VIX fear index remains elevated. Bitcoin is up 1% to $88K. Asian markets were up marginally or flat. Stocks in Europe lost 0.5% this morning in early trading. Futures contracts for the S&P 500 were up 1% this morning premarket, suggesting some investors think yesterday’s crash was oversold.
“Destruction of epic proportions.” The Bespoke Investment Group sent a note to clients that said it all: “The S&P 500 is now down 14.5% since President Trump was sworn in for his second term. The 14.5% drop for the S&P is by far the biggest decline the index has seen three months into a Presidential term since 1928. … We're truly dealing with equity market destruction of epic proportions since the President re-took office.”
Trump’s logic: Everyone will blame Powell for not lowering interest rates when the president told him to, the WSJ argues.
But will Trump actually fire Powell? If he did, the loss of confidence in the U.S. generally — its government, its asset market, and its economy — would be catastrophic, argues the FT’s Robert Armstrong. That’s why it is unlikely that Trump will do the deed. Analysts disagree, however. Some put it at 50/50. The betting markets have the odds at 26% (Kalshi) and 21% (Polymarket).
Some Republicans mount resistance. Not everyone in Congress is on board with the president.
Investment managers plead for caution. Those critical of Powell’s hesitance to cut rates, have spoken out against the potential firing of the Fed leader. Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, thinks rate cuts are needed but told Fortune that Trump’s threats are creating undue “volatility.”
Elsewhere in the White House: The president stood behind Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth even though he twice leaked details of military operations on Sigmal group chats … someone stole Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s purse from a burger joint. It contained her driver's license, passport, DHS access badge, checks, and $3,000 in cash … Harvard sued the White House for freezing its research funding.
DHL to halt shipments to U.S. consumers. New regulations put in place earlier this month require that shipments to U.S. consumers exceeding $800 in value clear customs. That’s down from the original threshold of $2,500, and shipping company DHL now says they are halting shipments of that kind starting April 21 to sort out a backlog of packages.
Contenders to be the next Pope: See the most likely runners and riders here. Context: Pope Francis already picked 80% of the cardinals who will choose his successor.
From the analysts
- RBC on Trump: “Headlines about Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve, questions about its independence and his ability to fire Powell — regardless of the outcome — have added uncertainty to a market already flush with uncertainty,” as cited in the FT.
- JPMorgan Chase on Trump: “Any reduction in the independence of the Fed would add upside risks to an inflation outlook that is already subject to upward pressures from tariffs and somewhat elevated inflation expectations,” according to Michael Feroli, per the FT.
- UBS on Trump: “US President Trump again called for lower US interest rates. Markets interpreted this as undermining Federal Reserve independence, and markets do not like that (US assets weakened). The coming US economic slowdown is driven more by rising risk than high rates,” per Paul Donovan.
- Macquarie on Trump: “Flight from the USD continues today for two reasons. First, despite the Fed's hawkishness, concerns over the Fed's independence have mounted. Second, the 'test case' of US-Japan negotiations failed to reach a deal on trade and tariffs late last week. That suggests a period of bilateral negotiations that last into July, and casts doubt about the willingness of the US and its allies to make bilateral concessions easily,” per Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry.
Around the watercooler
Term Sheet Next: NEA partner Ann Bordetsky is on a mission to fund AI-first products and startups creating economic empowerment by Allie Garfinkle
‘Peak uncertainty’ may have passed since Trump pressed pause on tariffs, but Fundstrat’s Tom Lee fears we may not have reached ‘maximum pain’ by Alena Botros
Who’s running the Catholic church until a new pope is chosen? Meet Kevin by Chris Morris
Crypto firms gave $18M to Trump’s inauguration. Ripple’s $4.9M gift was second biggest overall by Ben Weiss
Bitcoin rebounds as the U.S. dollar weakens and Trump feuds with Fed Chair Jerome Powell by Catherine McGrath
CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams and Jim Edwards.
