- In today’s CEO Daily: It’s chaos out there — and CEOs tell Diane Brady they are staying off the radar while they shore up alliances with their partners.
- The big story: Wall Street is losing confidence in Trump.
- The markets: It’s getting worse.
- Analyst notes from Apollo on recession, Goldman Sachs on oil, Convera on the dollar, and Oxford Economics on the Eurozone.
- Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.
Good morning. In talking to dozens of CEOs about the current landscape in recent weeks, some common themes have emerged. They hope the tariffs are lifted and the trade war is short. They worry about blowback to their brands and relationships. They want regulatory easing without regulatory chaos. They’re trying to stay focused on the rapid and seismic shift in technology brought about by AI. They want stable markets and stable currency. Many say it’s too early to predict that the era of rules-based law and free trade is over. And they’re reluctant to say much of this on the record. As one CEO of a major financial institution said on Friday: “I’d rather not see my name, my company or even my industry in the headlines right now.”
So what are they doing? To start, they’re deploying more resources to get to know the players in the Trump Administration and keeping a close eye on what’s happening in the courts at the federal and state levels. To paraphrase Bob Dylan, you can’t criticize what you don’t understand. They’re trying to strengthen bonds with customers, vendors, regulators, employees, and board members, especially in key markets outside the U.S.
And many are looking to organizations like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Business Roundtable, the National Association of Retailers, the American Hospital Association and others to not just represent their interests in Washington but also provide more intelligence on what’s around the corner. (I’ve seen greater interest in our CEO gatherings, too, especially off-the-record dinners like the one we held in New York recently with Canada’s Chrystia Freeland, former Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao and former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.) There’s never been a more critical time to talk to peers, especially across industries.
I spoke recently to Sean West, a veteran global affairs expert and cofounder of the software company Hence Technologies, about what companies can do in this environment. West, the author of Unruly: Fighting Back when Politics, AI and Law Upend the Rules of Business, sees a few things happening. Companies, he said, “need to be thinking about, how do you achieve your political aims through the legal system?” That involves more coordination between your legal team and business units. Another big shift is the increased importance of industry groups. “You need to force your industry groups to take a much more combative position than they want to do if you’re afraid to do it yourself. Industry groups are no longer just about, kind of quietly slowing down policy-making. They can be a vehicle for safety in numbers.”
More news below.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
Top news
Global market crash continues. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down by around 12.5% this morning, its worst decline since 2008. In Japan, the collapse of the futures market triggered a circuit breaker that halted trading for 10 minutes. The VIX fear index shot upwards and is now at its highest since the Covid pandemic shut down the world in 2020. Europe is down across the board this morning. The Euro Stoxx 600 and the UK’s FTSE 100 are both down around 5%.
S&P 500 futures are down 4% this morning after the index itself closed down 6% on Friday as the world digested the scale of President Trump’s tariff plan.
Bonds, however, are up. Trump is focused on bond prices and oil prices, Bloomberg argues, and is willing to sacrifice the fortunes of stockholders in order to get the yield on long-term bonds down along with the price of oil.
Trump posted a video that said he was crashing the stock market on purpose and then, later, when talking to the press on Air Force One, said, “I don't want anything to go down. But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”
Bill Ackman goes on the attack. “Business is a confidence game. The president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe,” the CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management said. “By placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner.” Ackman had endorsed Trump before the election.
Wall Street is calling out the president, too. Howard Marks, Dan Loeb, and Stan Druckenmiller are among the big dogs of finance calling for Trump to desist. “This is unambiguously stupid,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, when asked about the tariffs by Bloomberg.
Bessent on defense. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hailed the 15% reduction in oil prices and said there was no reason for the markets to price in a recession.
The president spent Friday, Saturday, and Sunday playing golf.
Math error? The conservative American Enterprise Institute said Trump’s tariff formula mixes up import price elasticity with retail prices and is thus incorrect by roughly 4X.
Tariff analysis. President Trump’s tariff agenda is the most aggressive in recent history. But while he may have shaken markets, the approach isn’t new.
Warren Buffett’s investment moves now seem uncannily well-timed in the wake of the stock market meltdown caused by President Trump’s global tariffs. Berkshire Hathaway sold $134 billion in equities in 2024 and was sitting on a record $334 billion cash pile at year’s end.
Farm aid. Trump administration officials and lawmakers are considering aid for farmers as retaliation looms against U.S. tariffs. During Trump’s first term, farmers got $23 billion after an earlier round of tariffs.
From the analysts
- Apollo on recession: “Whether we will have a recession or not depends on the duration of this shock. If these levels of tariffs stay in place for several months and other countries retaliate, it will cause a recession in the US and the rest of the world,” per Torsten Sløk.
- Goldman Sachs on oil: “This negative economic growth impact, which leads us to lower our oil demand growth expectations, is combined with today's announcement by OPEC of a larger-than-expected increase in oil supply in May. As a result, we have lowered our Dec25 Brent/WTI crude oil price forecasts to $66/$62/bbl from $71/$67 previously. We recommend investors and producers hedge further downside, while refiners hedge deferred margins,” per Samantha Dart et al.
- Convera on the dollar: “The dollar index dropped over 2%, its worst day in almost ten years and its lowest level in six months. The dollar is being sold against the big, liquid defensive currencies of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, as well as the euro and pound. This will aggravate the impact of the levies on US consumers,” per George Vessey.
- Oxford Economics on the Eurozone: “Our initial estimates of the direct impact from the US decision to raise tariffs on imports from the EU and other countries shows it could shave 0.2ppts-0.3ppts off annual Eurozone GDP growth this year and next. But this does not include the impact that the associated trade uncertainty will have on investment, so we will likely cut our GDP growth forecast by more,” per Angel Talavera.
Around the watercooler
Walmart CEO says paying its star managers upwards of $620,000 yearly empowers them to ‘feel like owners’ by Emma Burleigh
The stock market is crashing: Here’s what financial experts say you should do with your 401(k) now by Alicia Adamczyk
Europe has caught a work absenteeism bug, turning one of the continent’s biggest advantages into a multi-billion euro strain by Prarthana Prakash
Fed Chair Jerome Powell says Trump tariffs are ‘likely to raise inflation’—and the economic hit will be ‘significantly larger’ than expected by Azure Gilman
Larry Summers says Trump’s ‘masochistic’ tariffs will cost $300,000 per family of four by Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez
Boss uses a recruiter-approved coffee cup test in every interview—and he won’t hire anyone who fails it by Orianna Rosa Royle
CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Nicholas Gordon and Jim Edwards.