• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Anne Hathaway says she was spammed with ChatGPT-written thank you notes after hiring for a recent role: ‘Nobody on that list gets that job’

2

Jeff Bezos pledged $10 billion for climate change. With the 2030 clock ticking, his wife, Lauren Sánchez Bezos, is leading the charge to spend it

3

The affordability crisis is so bad that, for the first time ever, both mom and dad are working full-time in most American families

1

Anne Hathaway says she was spammed with ChatGPT-written thank you notes after hiring for a recent role: ‘Nobody on that list gets that job’

2

Jeff Bezos pledged $10 billion for climate change. With the 2030 clock ticking, his wife, Lauren Sánchez Bezos, is leading the charge to spend it

3

The affordability crisis is so bad that, for the first time ever, both mom and dad are working full-time in most American families
FinanceInvesting

‘Black Swan’ investor still sees a ‘euphoric high’ ahead and doesn’t think the largest bubble ever is bursting yet—but then there could be an 80% crash

Jason Ma
By
Jason Ma
Jason Ma
Weekend Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
Jason Ma
By
Jason Ma
Jason Ma
Weekend Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
April 1, 2025, 5:03 AM ET
Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of Universa Investments.
Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of Universa Investments.Chris Goodney—Bloomberg/Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.
  • Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of Universa Investments, has a reputation as one of the gloomiest investors on Wall Street but has been very bullish since 2022. The “Black Swan” hedge fund guru maintains his view that a “euphoric high” is ahead, but also still sees the “largest bubble in human history” popping eventually and a crash worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

U.S. stocks have taken a beating so far this year as President Donald Trump ramps up his trade war and slashes federal payrolls, but this is not a bubble bursting, according to Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of Universa Investments.

Recommended Video

His hedge fund specializes in tail-risk hedging, a strategy that seeks to prevent losses from unforeseeable and unlikely economic catastrophes, also known as “black swans.”

That’s earned him a reputation as one of the gloomiest investors on Wall Street. But in fact, he has been bullish on the market since 2022 and still feels that way.

At the same time, Spitznagel has also been warning of a massive bubble and expects an epic reckoning to hit the market eventually.

“That’s what we should all be concerned about right now—the largest bubble in human history popping,” he told Fortune in an interview Friday.

That’s the result of an explosion of debt that was punctured by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle in 2022 and 2023, according to Spitznagel. While the central bank has since pivoted to rate cuts, there are still lag effects from the tightening.

For now, Spitznagel views the recent market selloff as a “head fake” that’s one of the zigzags along a cycle that will play out like others have throughout history.

Because it’s definitely not different this time, and it never is, he argued. When the bubble does burst, it will be obvious and more destructive than the Great Financial Crisis.

“I think, when this is over, we’re going to see something far worse than ’08, ’09,” Spitznagel warned. “I think the market’s going to crash, like, 80%.”

But right now, he thinks he’s the most bullish investment manager out there. One reason is that the economy still hasn’t gone south and appears to be taking longer than expected to roll over, which probably means even more upside ahead.

That helps reinforce expectations for a soft landing. And when you add the Fed’s dovish tilt, it creates a “Goldilocks zone” for the market, Spitznagel explained.

“I’ve been calling for a blow-off euphoric high for two and a half years,” he said. “I’m still waiting for that. I think it’s still probably going to happen.”

By contrast, Wall Street is sounding increasingly bearish lately, cutting year-end targets for the S&P 500 and raising recession odds, with some as high as 50%.

The Fed’s most recent economic projections point to slower growth and hotter inflation, raising fears of stagflation.

At some point, Spitznagel also knows the party will be over, though he cautions against trying to pinpoint an exact timeline.

Eventually, a severe recession will arrive, and the Fed will step in with more supportive monetary policy, he said, predicting another blast of ultralow rates and quantitative easing.

Spitznagel expects the economy and the central bank to play out like this: “You’ve got these conflicting crosscurrents of soft landing, easy Fed. And soft landing turns to hard landing, easy Fed. [Then] you’ve got hard landing, panicking Fed. And that’s a crash.”

But again, he insists he’s bullish right now, though the environment is ripe for something bad to happen. He told Bloomberg TV in September that markets had entered black swan territory.

Market failures tend to happen when the economy pivots, Spitznagel told Fortune, pointing to slowing growth, cooling inflation, and falling bond yields.

“This is sort of slowly turning like a tanker, and that’s put us in black swan territory for sure,” he said. “As that accelerates, we really need to be on the lookout.”

About the Author
Jason Ma
By Jason MaWeekend Editor

Jason Ma is the weekend editor at Fortune, where he covers markets, the economy, finance, and housing.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

g
CommentaryVenture Capital
I watched enterprises buy AI that solved the wrong problem. So I left Dell and built a startup to fix it
By Ganesh PadmanabhanJune 19, 2026
13 hours ago
Sam Altman looks down and to the side, frowning.
AIOpenAI
Sam Altman was ‘0%’ excited to be a CEO of a public company—but OpenAI is taking steps to compete in the AI IPO blitz anyway
By Sasha RogelbergJune 19, 2026
14 hours ago
Jeff Bezos pledged $10 billion for climate change. With the 2030 clock ticking, his wife, Lauren Sánchez Bezos, is leading the charge to spend it
EnvironmentJeff Bezos
Jeff Bezos pledged $10 billion for climate change. With the 2030 clock ticking, his wife, Lauren Sánchez Bezos, is leading the charge to spend it
By Sydney LakeJune 19, 2026
14 hours ago
Record revenues. Record profits. Record revenue per employee. The Fortune 500 is richer than ever—and employing fewer people
EconomyFortune 500
Record revenues. Record profits. Record revenue per employee. The Fortune 500 is richer than ever—and employing fewer people
By Claire ZillmanJune 19, 2026
14 hours ago
A shopper looks at a beverage display June 4, 2026 at the Market 32 Supermarket in South Burlington, Vermont.
EconomyConsumers
Miserable K-shaped economy might actually be fading, as lower-income families bounce back, says Bank of America
By Eleanor PringleJune 19, 2026
14 hours ago
Top CD rates today, June 19, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.30%
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates today, June 19, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.30%
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 19, 2026
16 hours ago

Most Popular

Anne Hathaway says she was spammed with ChatGPT-written thank you notes after hiring for a recent role: ‘Nobody on that list gets that job’
Success
Anne Hathaway says she was spammed with ChatGPT-written thank you notes after hiring for a recent role: ‘Nobody on that list gets that job’
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 18, 2026
2 days ago
Jeff Bezos pledged $10 billion for climate change. With the 2030 clock ticking, his wife, Lauren Sánchez Bezos, is leading the charge to spend it
Environment
Jeff Bezos pledged $10 billion for climate change. With the 2030 clock ticking, his wife, Lauren Sánchez Bezos, is leading the charge to spend it
By Sydney LakeJune 19, 2026
14 hours ago
The affordability crisis is so bad that, for the first time ever, both mom and dad are working full-time in most American families
Economy
The affordability crisis is so bad that, for the first time ever, both mom and dad are working full-time in most American families
By Jacqueline MunisJune 17, 2026
2 days ago
Microsoft boss Steve Ballmer publicly dismissed Chrome as a 'rounding error'—but Google’s CEO says he used the jab as fuel to win the browser-wars
Success
Microsoft boss Steve Ballmer publicly dismissed Chrome as a 'rounding error'—but Google’s CEO says he used the jab as fuel to win the browser-wars
By Preston ForeJune 17, 2026
2 days ago
Hundreds of Stanford students walked out of their grad ceremony to protest Google CEO’s commencement speech. It wasn’t all about AI
Big Tech
Hundreds of Stanford students walked out of their grad ceremony to protest Google CEO’s commencement speech. It wasn’t all about AI
By Tristan BoveJune 15, 2026
4 days ago
Current price of gold as of June 18, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of gold as of June 18, 2026
By Danny BakstJune 18, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.