• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Surging Treasury yields expose a brutal truth: America has no margin for error on its $39 trillion debt

2

U.S. says deals with Iran for safe Hormuz transit are prohibited

3

After a judge ordered Trump's name be removed from the Kennedy Center, president says it will 'soon be closed, probably never to open again'

1

Surging Treasury yields expose a brutal truth: America has no margin for error on its $39 trillion debt

2

U.S. says deals with Iran for safe Hormuz transit are prohibited

3

After a judge ordered Trump's name be removed from the Kennedy Center, president says it will 'soon be closed, probably never to open again'
FinanceInvesting

‘Black Swan’ investor still sees a ‘euphoric high’ ahead and doesn’t think the largest bubble ever is bursting yet—but then there could be an 80% crash

Jason Ma
By
Jason Ma
Jason Ma
Weekend Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
Jason Ma
By
Jason Ma
Jason Ma
Weekend Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
April 1, 2025, 5:03 AM ET
Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of Universa Investments.
Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of Universa Investments.Chris Goodney—Bloomberg/Getty Images
  • Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of Universa Investments, has a reputation as one of the gloomiest investors on Wall Street but has been very bullish since 2022. The “Black Swan” hedge fund guru maintains his view that a “euphoric high” is ahead, but also still sees the “largest bubble in human history” popping eventually and a crash worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

U.S. stocks have taken a beating so far this year as President Donald Trump ramps up his trade war and slashes federal payrolls, but this is not a bubble bursting, according to Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of Universa Investments.

Recommended Video

His hedge fund specializes in tail-risk hedging, a strategy that seeks to prevent losses from unforeseeable and unlikely economic catastrophes, also known as “black swans.”

That’s earned him a reputation as one of the gloomiest investors on Wall Street. But in fact, he has been bullish on the market since 2022 and still feels that way.

At the same time, Spitznagel has also been warning of a massive bubble and expects an epic reckoning to hit the market eventually.

“That’s what we should all be concerned about right now—the largest bubble in human history popping,” he told Fortune in an interview Friday.

That’s the result of an explosion of debt that was punctured by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle in 2022 and 2023, according to Spitznagel. While the central bank has since pivoted to rate cuts, there are still lag effects from the tightening.

For now, Spitznagel views the recent market selloff as a “head fake” that’s one of the zigzags along a cycle that will play out like others have throughout history.

Because it’s definitely not different this time, and it never is, he argued. When the bubble does burst, it will be obvious and more destructive than the Great Financial Crisis.

“I think, when this is over, we’re going to see something far worse than ’08, ’09,” Spitznagel warned. “I think the market’s going to crash, like, 80%.”

But right now, he thinks he’s the most bullish investment manager out there. One reason is that the economy still hasn’t gone south and appears to be taking longer than expected to roll over, which probably means even more upside ahead.

That helps reinforce expectations for a soft landing. And when you add the Fed’s dovish tilt, it creates a “Goldilocks zone” for the market, Spitznagel explained.

“I’ve been calling for a blow-off euphoric high for two and a half years,” he said. “I’m still waiting for that. I think it’s still probably going to happen.”

By contrast, Wall Street is sounding increasingly bearish lately, cutting year-end targets for the S&P 500 and raising recession odds, with some as high as 50%.

The Fed’s most recent economic projections point to slower growth and hotter inflation, raising fears of stagflation.

At some point, Spitznagel also knows the party will be over, though he cautions against trying to pinpoint an exact timeline.

Eventually, a severe recession will arrive, and the Fed will step in with more supportive monetary policy, he said, predicting another blast of ultralow rates and quantitative easing.

Spitznagel expects the economy and the central bank to play out like this: “You’ve got these conflicting crosscurrents of soft landing, easy Fed. And soft landing turns to hard landing, easy Fed. [Then] you’ve got hard landing, panicking Fed. And that’s a crash.”

But again, he insists he’s bullish right now, though the environment is ripe for something bad to happen. He told Bloomberg TV in September that markets had entered black swan territory.

Market failures tend to happen when the economy pivots, Spitznagel told Fortune, pointing to slowing growth, cooling inflation, and falling bond yields.

“This is sort of slowly turning like a tanker, and that’s put us in black swan territory for sure,” he said. “As that accelerates, we really need to be on the lookout.”

About the Author
Jason Ma
By Jason MaWeekend Editor

Jason Ma is the weekend editor at Fortune, where he covers markets, the economy, finance, and housing.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

c
EconomyChina
Chinese factory activity flattens as analysts wonder about true damage from Iran War
By The Associated PressMay 31, 2026
34 minutes ago
boomer
Personal Financebaby boomers
I wrote that Boomers were choking America’s economy. Their responses to me were revealing
By Nick LichtenbergMay 31, 2026
34 minutes ago
Matt Panella
SuccessJobs
This home-builder dropped out of high school and worked construction for $8 an hour—by 22, he was making $200K from his trade empire
By Emma BurleighMay 31, 2026
1 hour ago
Elon Musk surrounded by Money symbols
InvestingFinance
If Elon Musk merges SpaceX with Tesla he’ll create a $3.4 trillion behemoth—with zero profits
By Shawn TullyMay 31, 2026
5 hours ago
Oil bosses warn prices will soar in a matter of weeks as inventories near unprecedented lows — ‘I mean really, really low levels’
EnergyOil
Oil bosses warn prices will soar in a matter of weeks as inventories near unprecedented lows — ‘I mean really, really low levels’
By Jason MaMay 30, 2026
13 hours ago
U.S. military fires missile into engine room of blockade runner after it ignored more than 20 warnings while trying to enter an Iranian port
PoliticsIran
U.S. military fires missile into engine room of blockade runner after it ignored more than 20 warnings while trying to enter an Iranian port
By Konstantin Toropin and The Associated PressMay 30, 2026
15 hours ago

Most Popular

Surging Treasury yields expose a brutal truth: America has no margin for error on its $39 trillion debt
Economy
Surging Treasury yields expose a brutal truth: America has no margin for error on its $39 trillion debt
By Shawn TullyMay 30, 2026
1 day ago
U.S. says deals with Iran for safe Hormuz transit are prohibited
Politics
U.S. says deals with Iran for safe Hormuz transit are prohibited
By Jack Wittels and BloombergMay 30, 2026
21 hours ago
After a judge ordered Trump's name be removed from the Kennedy Center, president says it will 'soon be closed, probably never to open again'
Law
After a judge ordered Trump's name be removed from the Kennedy Center, president says it will 'soon be closed, probably never to open again'
By Collin Binkley and The Associated PressMay 30, 2026
15 hours ago
Gen Z is rejecting $200 dates and choosing 'solo-maxxing'—and dating apps are taking a hit
Economy
Gen Z is rejecting $200 dates and choosing 'solo-maxxing'—and dating apps are taking a hit
By Sydney LakeMay 30, 2026
1 day ago
After Blue Origin rocket explosion, NASA's entire moon exploration program depends on SpaceX for now as Musk eyes blockbuster IPO soon
Innovation
After Blue Origin rocket explosion, NASA's entire moon exploration program depends on SpaceX for now as Musk eyes blockbuster IPO soon
By Jason MaMay 30, 2026
16 hours ago
Current price of oil as of May 29, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of May 29, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerMay 29, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.