Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank, says the economy is still in the soft landing phase, “but there’s a lot of turbulence out there.”
“Tariffs, they’ll definitely have pluses and minuses, you see consternation around the world,” Dimon said on Wednesday in a conversation with Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen at the tech company’s annual summit in Las Vegas. There’s also uncertainty about what going to happen with President Trump’s proposed tax plan, he said.
Dimon also expressed concern about geopolitics and the effects of the turbulence on the economy. “I personally think the most important thing happening in the world is what’s happening with Ukraine and Russia, and the Middle East. I know that’s about the future of a free democratic world.”
Regarding spending in the U.S., “consumers at the low end are basically spending down,” he said, explaining that that means saving money by taking actions like canceling a trip or going to a less expensive restaurant. “People at the high end, their money is down a lot, but they are a lot wealthier; think of homes and stock prices over the last 20 years,” he explained.
But Dimon also wanted to make an important point for all of the leaders in the audience: “The bottom 20% [of earners in the U.S.] didn’t get a pay raise for 25 years; they’re dying younger. Their schools aren’t good and they live in crime-ridden neighborhoods.”
Also speaking on the economy, Dimon said, “Hopefully inflation will come down.” He noted that the green economy and restructuring trade—“however it happens”—is going to cost money and “cause a little bit of inflation.”
He added, “There are a lot of inflationary forces.” But instead of just looking at the latest inflation report, he advised looking at the long-term trends, like IRAs and a lot of demand for capital. Dimon also thinks there’s going to be more military spending: “When I look at the world, I always try to look at the future facts.”
“I always hope for the best,” Dimon said to the audience—but he also gave this advice: “As a businessperson, plan for all potential outcomes.”