Tesla’s fall from grace may have no equal, says JPMorgan: ‘We struggle to think of anything analogous’

JPMorgan auto analyst Ryan Brinkman warned clients the politically divisive entrepreneur is, in all likelihood, repelling far more prospective car buyers than he has gained through his proximity to President Trump and far right in Europe.

As a result, Brinkman slashed his estimate for Q1 global deliveries to just 355,000 vehicles from 444,000 previously, the latest analyst to take a cautious view of the current reporting period. This compares to its most recent figure of 495,000 for the fourth quarter of last year, and Bloomberg’s consensus of 418,000 vehicles. 

“We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly,” Brinkman wrote in a research note published Wednesday, cutting his price target to $120 from $135 previously. 

The closest comparison he could think of was the consumer backlash in China against Korean brands in 2017 after Seoul installed American-made THAAD missile systems that enraged Beijing. In that case, the loss of market share was permanent, he wrote.

It’s the consumer backlash, not the Model Y changeover that’s at fault

Interestingly, Brinkman paid no heed to arguments that the first quarter will primarily be weak due to a changeover of the Model Y, its best seller. Instead he focused on the behavior of many owners to distance themselves from the band, “even replacing the Tesla logo with that of another car company.”

He pointed to February data from the non-partisan EV Politics Project showing he would unlikely be able to offset the amount of U.S. buyers that he lost due to his political views (the survey can be found here).

For the moment, it seems as though the market agrees, at least for today. The stock fell 4% on Thursday to $238 a share.

JPMorgan’s Brinkman, importantly, is a kind of anti-Dan Ives. Whereas the Wedbush analyst remains firmly convinced Tesla’s risks are slanted to the upside—and largely been right—Brinkman is one of the exceedingly few sell-side analysts to consistently maintain a bearish view of the stock regardless of prevailing sentiment.

Not only has he maintained an “underweight” rating over the past three years without exception, Brinkman did not waver in his assessment while Tesla shares soared from $250 on Election Day to a record peak of $488 by mid-December. 

That isn’t because of doubts regarding product or technology—the substance of Tesla, in other words—but rather the valuation that already prices in considerable earnings growth at a time when competition from all sides is on the rise.

Tesla has ‘the most to lose’ from Trump eliminating subsidies

Even after shares gave up all the post-election gains to trade below $240, the JPMorgan analyst said the stock remained expensive. 

“Tesla appears to have the most to lose amongst our coverage from the shifting regulatory backdrop,” he wrote.

Citing the likely loss of the $7,500 federal tax credit on the purchase of a new EV, he pencils in an approximate 45% downside risk to earnings from election-related changes in government subsidies.

The resentment around Musk is now so severe, Trump briefly used the White House as a backdrop to hawk Tesla cars, complete with a sales note in hand breaking down all the prices. The president also warned protesters that targeting Tesla property for vandalism would be treated not just as a criminal offense, but as an act of domestic terrorism.

Only time will tell if his official endorsement of Tesla will help demand given the president’s longstanding dislike of EVs. On the one hand, he did not make for an effective salesman since it was clear Trump didn’t know the first thing about Musk’s products and could not tell them at all apart. On the other hand, Google Trends registered an uptick in interest and conservative <em>Fox</em> News host Sean Hannity claimed to have bought a new Tesla Model S Plaid, encouraging others to follow suit.