- CEOs are sounding the alarm on the economy, giving it the lowest rating since the onset of the pandemic in the spring of 2020, according to Chief Executive’s U.S. CEO Confidence Index. Just under half of the 220 CEO respondents also expect a recession to come in the next six months. This pessimism comes as markets teeter near correction territory following Trump’s mixed messages on the economy and tariffs.
CEOs are already feeling the pain of President Trump’s policies, and they’re more pessimistic about the state of the economy than they have been since the pandemic.
Chief Executive’s U.S. CEO Confidence Index from March shows that CEOs’ optimism about current business conditions plummeted by 20% since the start of the year. On a scale of one to 10 (one is poor and 10 is excellent), the 220 CEOs surveyed gave the current U.S. business environment a five, compared to a 6.3 in January, marking the lowest ranking since the spring of 2020 and the uncertainty surrounding the arrival of COVID-19, one of the deadliest pandemics in history.
Among chief executives’ top concerns was the economic uncertainty in markets caused in part by the possible impact of tariffs and the lack of stability surrounding U.S. policy.
“Weakening demand and increasing costs place our manufacturing company in a precarious economic situation. We expect a rough road ahead,” Mitchell Metal Products CEO Tim Zimmerman told Chief Executive.
Looking ahead 12 months, CEOs don’t see business conditions getting better either. Just under half of respondents said they expected a recession or slowdown in the next six months.
Due to their pessimism about the future, fewer than half of the company leaders surveyed expect profits to increase, compared to 76% in January. Just over one-third plan to increase headcount, while more than half said the same in January.
A majority of the CEOs surveyed agreed on one thing: Prices are going up. Two-thirds of the leaders said they have, or plan to, increase prices this year. Part of the reason why CEOs said their companies are raising prices is because suppliers have either raised prices on them or are planning to.
The CEOs’ pessimism about the U.S. economy comes as Trump has implemented tariffs on Mexico and Canada before adding exemptions for products that comply with USMCA terms. In a Tuesday post on Truth Social, Trump said he would impose an additional 25% on Canadian steel and aluminum as he reiterated his desire to make Canada the 51st state.
Already, the U.S. stock market has plummeted toward correction territory following a weekend interview where Trump did not rule out the possibility of a recession and hinted at a “period of transition” for the economy.