Mark Carney: Financier, banker, and Canada’s new prime minister

Economic savvy:  A former Goldman Sachs executive who served as governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, Carney was praised for his leadership through the 2008 financial crisis and Brexit. He went on to become UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, and an advisor to government and business leaders. Calling himself a pragmatist, he vowed last night to do away with an unpopular carbon tax and capital gains hike.

A political novice: Carney has never held elected office and quickly learned that smart business decisions can be politically dumb. Exhibit A: Chairing the board of Brookfield Asset Management when it shifted headquarters from Toronto to New York to chase more investors and inclusion in key indices. While Canadians cheer success south of the border, Donald Trump’s attacks have made such moves feel like a betrayal.  

A focus on growth: Carney has promised to focus on taxes, productivity, and other levers of economic growth. I’ve spoken with several Canadian CEOs who want to see more alignment with rational U.S. policies, which would preclude 25% tariffs. As RBC CEO Dave McKay told me a few months ago: “We need a strong America that’s in an expansionary global mode and protects democracy and stands up for the rules of democracy.”

In the meantime, Canadians need a leader who can repair trade ties right away. Carney says Canada’s economy is stronger than the U.S. economy “in the medium term.” Others would not agree as Canadians have had to deal with more household debt, a higher unemployment rate and slower economic growth. Starting today, Ontario Premier Doug Ford plans to charge 25% more for electricity shipped to U.S. customers. There’s more to come. “Canada will never, ever be part of America in any shape or form,” said Carney. “As in hockey, Canada will win, but victory won’t be easy.” Stopping a trade war, though, will require a shared win.

More news below.

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

Top news

A Trump recession? The president was asked on Fox News if he expected the U.S. to enter recession this year, and he declined to rule it out: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing, and there are always periods, it takes a little time,” he said.

Mixed messages. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has previously said the private sector has already been in recession but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said there is “no chance” of a recession.

The “hard reset” theory. Convera FX & macro strategist Kevin Ford published a note discussing a theory that “the new U.S. administration could be intentionally engineering a slowdown. By using tariffs, they aim to curb inflation, lower interest rates, and weaken the dollar—all to create a more stable economic landscape for Trump 47’s agenda,” he wrote.

“While this theory may seem far-fetched, markets are increasingly leaning into the possibility of a slowdown. Stocks have sold off, the dollar has weakened, and expectations for 2025 Fed rate cuts are rising,” Ford said.

Ukraine and Russia talk in Saudi Arabia. Delegates from Kyiv will propose a partial ceasefire in exchange for the U.S. reinstating intelligence sharing and weapon supplies. Ukraine has retreated from the Kursk territory seized last year from Russia. The U.S. wants Ukraine to accept its deal for minerals but without security guarantees. Russia wants Ukraine to surrender. The war itself is bogged down in Eastern Ukraine.

Trump supported independence for Greenland, kinda-sorta. “The United States strongly supports the people of Greenland’s right to determine their own future,” he said on Truth Social, before adding, “And, if you so choose, we welcome you to be a part of the Greatest Nation anywhere in the World, the United States of America!” Greenlanders head to the polls to elect a new parliament on Tuesday.

From Fortune

Trump says tariffs “may go up”
In a Fox News interview on Sunday, President Donald Trump stated that tariffs “may go up” after reciprocal tariffs go into effect on April 2nd. When asked if he foresaw a recession taking place this year, Trump responded with “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big.” Fortune

Mark Cuban warns of recession
Billionaire Mark Cuban warned that the government cuts led by the Department of Government Efficiency are “how recessions start” in a post on Bluesky over the weekend. “Ready Fire Aim is no way to govern,” the post read. Fortune

How much would Tesla be worth without Musk?
Fortune’s Shawn Tully calculates that on the financials alone the company should have a market cap of $84 billion. But Tesla’s valuation as of last week was $955 billion. It’s selling at 227 times its 2024 underlying profits. Fortune

Trump targets law firm with executive order
President Trump signed an executive order last week that limits how much the government can work with Perkins Coie, the law firm that represented Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. Among other claims, the order accuses Perkins Coie of “dishonest and dangerous activity” and “undermining democratic elections.” Fortune

The markets

• Last week, the S&P 500 fell 3.1%, the Dow fell 2.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.45%. Bitcoin declined to $82K. The VIX “fear index” (measures volatility) is up 61.54% for the month. Asia and European markets were down this morning. Futures contracts for the S&P were off 0.89% this morning.

From the analysts

• UBS on U.S. trade policy: “(Last) week’s tax and retreat has incurred an economic cost. Uncertainty has risen for companies and financial markets, with some questioning whether the US government has a coherent policy,” per Paul Donovan.
• Apollo on the VIX: “Investors are getting very worried about the downside risks to their portfolios. VIX call volume buying is near record-high levels, and S&P 500 put volume buying is near record-high levels,” see charts here.
• Wedbush on Tesla: “Let’s address the elephant in the room … While the DOGE/Trump Musk iron-clad partnership has created major brand worries for Tesla.....we estimate less than 5% of Tesla sales globally are at risk from these issues despite the global draconian narrative for Musk. … We continue to believe the best thing that ever happened to Musk and Tesla was Trump in the White House as this will create a deregulatory environment with a federal autonomous roadmap central to the Tesla golden strategic vision,” per Daniel Ives et al.
• EY on the labor market: “...the healthy 151,000 payroll gain in February provided some reassurance that the economy’s foundation is still solid. Yet, significant job growth concentration, soft hours worked, a rise in the unemployment rate and lower labor force participation indicate a continued cooling in labor market conditions,” per Lydia Boussour.

Around the watercooler