Here are the products that could see big price increases from Trump’s tariff fight

Trump had announced 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% tariff on products from China. An ING estimate says the potential economic impact of those tariffs could work out to $835 per person (or $3,242 for a family of four).

So while the timing of any tariff impact is still very much up in the air, should they be enacted at some point, it could hurt the spending power of lower- and middle-income families quickly.

Here’s a look at the products that at risk of seeing noticeable price hikes.

Fruits and vegetables

The expected surge in fruit and vegetable prices might not be as bad as many people feared at the start of the weekend.

Roughly half of the vegetables consumed in the U.S., as well as 40% of the fruits imported are from Mexico. And some 90% of all avocados consumed come from Mexico.

In fact, over the past two decades, the volume of fresh vegetables imported by the United States, primarily from Mexico and Canada, rose nearly 200%, according to a 2021 report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. But, in 2020, Canada represented just 11% of the fresh vegetable import volume in the U.S. (compared to 77% for Mexico).

Mushrooms and potatoes are two of Canada’s biggest produce exports to the U.S.

Among the fruits and vegetables that could be at risk of a price increase if Trump does move forward with tariffs on Mexican imports:

• Avocados
• Tomatoes
• Strawberries
• Raspberries
• Fresh bell peppers
• Cucumbers
• Squash
• Snap beans

Beef

Trump’s announcement of the tariffs, ironically, came on the same day the U.S. Department of Agriculture lifted a ban on cattle exports from Mexico, which had been in effect since last November. The U.S. and Canada, meanwhile, have the largest two-way trade in live cattle and beef in the world. Price increases could come quickly on both sides of the border.

“When dealing with live animals you are not able to pivot quickly, and this tariff could cripple the world-renowned beef industry on both side of the border,” Will Lowe, chair of Canada’s National Cattle Feeders’ Association, told a trade publication.

Tater tots and French fries

Canada sent some $1.7 billion worth of frozen fries and other “prepared potato” products to the U.S. in 2023.

Lumber

One-third of the softwood lumber used in the U.S. comes from Canada. In 2023, the U.S. imported 28.1 million cubic meters of wood used in residential and commercial construction. While the U.S. could negotiate other trade agreements with countries like Germany or Sweden, neither has the capacity to match Canada’s exports.

The real-estate market is already struggling and many consumers are still reeling from the price surges lumber saw during the pandemic, which reached as high as $1,514 per thousand board feet in May 2021. Today, lumber costs $344 per thousand board feet.

Cars

Most cars purchased in the U.S. are either built in Canada or Mexico, or use parts imported from one of those countries.

TD Economics estimates the average price of an automobile in the U.S. could jump by roughly $3,000 if Trump’s tariffs go into full effect.  

Crude oil/gasoline

Every day, the U.S. imports 4 million barrels of Canadian oil, which is processed by U.S. refineries into gasoline. (Another 450,000 barrels per day come from Mexico.) A tariff could result in a substantial jump in fuel prices for American consumers.

It’s worth noting that energy products from Canada will only face a 10% tariff, instead of the full 25% one.

Electronics

China is a substantial supplier of components found in a wide variety of consumer electronics. That could result in across-the-board increases for everything from televisions to appliances.

Toys

China is the dominant supplier to the United States of toys. And while demand for those might not be as strong as it was a month ago, the country has something of a lock on the market, as few other countries have shown the ability to mass produce playthings that meet U.S. safety standards.

Sporting equipment

China is also the leading exporter of sports equipment to the U.S. Like toys, this category has been lightly taxed historically. A 10% tariff isn’t as aggressive as the 60% one Trump spoke of during his presidential campaign. But spring is on the horizon, and that’s a boom time for sporting goods sales, so parents getting their kids ready for little league or spring soccer could face higher prices than they’re used to.

Charcoal

Exports of wood charcoal (and other wood products) from Canada to the U.S. in 2023 topped $11.5 billion. That could mean the cost of your next barbecue will be higher, especially when you factor in higher beef prices.

Maple syrup

Gird your pancakes. Canada’s maple syrup industry accounts for 75% of the world’s maple syrup production. Producers in Vermont and New York can fill some of that demand, but it could result in higher breakfast prices.