Auto stocks took a battering on Monday as the market reckoned with the reality of President Donald Trump’s 25% blanket tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada. The selloff subsided, however, when Trump announced the tax hike on Mexican imports would be postponed for one month after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she would deploy soldiers to her country’s northern border to combat drug trafficking. Virtually no car manufacturer would be immune from the proposed tariff owing to these companies’ deeply interwoven North American supply chains, which have largely been built around free trade for decades.
Shares of General Motors, America’s largest carmaker, plunged 7% in premarket trading Monday but recovered to trade roughly 1% to 2% lower than Friday’s close. The stock had already dipped nearly 9% last week on tariff fears despite the company beating Wall Street estimates for both quarterly earnings and forward guidance on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, shares of Chrysler-Ram-Jeep parent Stellantis were down over 3% after they initially dropped more than 5%. Then there is Tesla: CEO Elon Musk may be Donald Trump’s biggest financial supporter and favorite cost-cutter, but the EV maker’s stock originally plunged 7% and remained down 4% as of late Monday morning. Ford and Toyota avoided such a steep selloff but also stayed in the red.
Bank of America analyst John Murphy has said the 25% tariff could result in $50 billion of additional costs for the auto industry. Ford and General Motors are among the names particularly challenged by the tariffs, he said, given that they produce 15% to 20% and 30% to 35% of their total vehicles in Canada and Mexico, respectively.
“If the tariffs are imposed and remain for an extended period, it will cause extreme stress through the automotive value chain,” Murphy wrote in a Friday note, CNBC reported.
The automaker most exposed to tariffs might be Volkswagen, however, given that over 40% of its U.S. sales are produced in Mexico. Even after Trump’s agreement with Sheinbaum, the German manufacturer’s stock was down nearly 4%. On Monday morning, the company said it is currently assessing the potential impact of the tax increase.
“At the same time, we continue to promote open markets and stable trade relations,” Volkswagen said in a statement. “These are essential for a competitive economy and for the automotive industry in particular.
“We are counting on constructive talks between the trading partners to ensure planning security and economic stability and to avoid a trade conflict,” the company added.
Auto industry supply chains will reel from tariffs
Few industries have more to lose from widespread tariffs and a potential North American trade war than autos. As the Brookings Institution noted last year, to say supply chains across the three countries are intertwined is a massive understatement—an engine, transmission, or another component might cross America’s borders with both Canada and Mexico seven or eight times before it ends up in a finished vehicle.
In fact, most vehicles imported from Mexico are made with crucial parts produced in the U.S. and Canada. The Peterson Institute for International Economics found that American-made components accounted for 38% of the total value added of vehicles imported to the U.S. from south of the border.
Nonetheless, Shawn Fain, president of the United Auto Workers, said aggressive tariff policy was a first step to undoing “decades of anti-worker trade policy.” But factory workers should not be used as “pawns,” the union leader added, in a fight over immigration or drug policy, which the White House has cited to justify the tax hike.
“Any tariff action must be followed with a renegotiation of the [United States–Mexico-Canada Agreement] and a full review of the corporate trade regime that has devastated the American and global working class,” Fain said in a statement.
Regardless, vehicles built in Canada and Mexico include several high-volume products where companies have little opportunity to re-source their highly specialized production lines, according to a recent report from S&P Global Mobility. Some popular examples included full-size pickup trucks from GM and Stellantis, as well as the Toyota RAV4.
On his Truth Social platform Sunday, Trump acknowledged tariffs could result in “some pain” for consumers.
“WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID,” he wrote.
With average car prices already at all-time highs, a 25% tax hike on the average $25,000 vehicle from Mexico and Canada will add $6,250 to its total cost, S&P Global Mobility found. Most of that increase will likely be passed on to customers.
