Tesla Inc. revealed plans to begin robotaxi operations and forecast a sales recovery this year, fueling what Elon Musk predicted would be an “epic” period of growth for the electric vehicle maker.
The chief executive officer cited advancements in vehicle autonomy and new model plans, and in its earnings report the company predicted a “return to growth in 2025.” Musk described a future that focused on driverless cars, humanoid robots and artificial intelligence. The comments largely sidestepped the actual sales and profit results, which missed Wall Street’s expectations for the final three months of a tumultuous 2024.
Tesla plans to launch its autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin in June and then in other cities by the end of the year.
“This is not some far off mythical situation,” Musk said on the company’s call with analysts. “It’s literally five months away.”
The shares rose 4.4% at 6:54 p.m. in extended New York trading. The stock’s value has climbed more than 80% since the last time Tesla reported earnings, highlighting how investors are looking past financial results and are using the company as a vehicle to invest in the prospects of Musk himself.
Tesla offered few new details on key questions, such as the impending launch of a more-affordable vehicle or specifics on the company’s sales forecasts. Musk spent much of the call talking about Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, while downplaying the impact of costly manufacturing changes and last year’s first annual decline in vehicle sales in over a decade.
“We’re building the manufacturing lines and I think setting up for what I think will be an epic 2026 and a ridiculous ’27 and ’28,” Musk said. “Ridiculously good. That is my prediction.”
Musk steered clear of US politics, a marked change from previous earnings calls that waded into inflation, industrial policy and the US election. Musk donated more than $250 million to support President Donald Trump’s election and other Republican causes, making him the largest private donor and vaulting him into prime position as a key adviser to Trump and the leader of a new cost-cutting initiative named the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.
Minutes before the earnings call started, Musk was rapidly firing off X posts on his social media service about President Trump’s recent moves to cut the federal workforce and deport undocumented immigrants. Musk paused posting on X for the duration of the call, but started again minutes after it ended with a post about Trump’s executive order cutting federal funding in K-12 schools that teach topics related to race, sex, gender or politics.
Despite Musk’s support for Trump, Tesla said it’s bracing for tariffs from the new administration.
“The imposition of tariffs, which is very likely, will have an impact on our business and our profitability,” Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja said.
The company didn’t mention Trump’s moves to overhaul US fuel-efficiency standards that give consumers incentives to buy electric and hybrid vehicles.
FSD Plans
Musk said Tesla will start offering “unsupervised Full Self-Driving” in Austin in June, adding he’s confident the service, which he described as “autonomous ride hailing for money,” will arrive in California and “many regions” of the US by the end of this year.
Musk predicted Tesla owners would eventually be able to add their cars to the fleet unsupervised, Airbnb-style.
Tesla previously said in October it aimed to launch both unsupervised FSD and autonomous ride-hailing in California and Texas this year.
Musk pointed to regulations as a potential constraint for the service.
Tesla has long sold a suite of features that it calls Full Self-Driving, or FSD, which requires constant driver supervision and isn’t considered fully autonomous. Musk also has a track record of blowing past product timelines, particularly for self-driving technology.
Autonomous vehicles face a number of regulatory hurdles, and Tesla’s Cybercab, which lacks pedals or a steering wheel, would require an exemption from existing rules. It would be limited to 2,500 vehicles under current federal standards. Musk has previously called for a national pathway for federal approval.
States also have their own patchwork of rules for regulating autonomous vehicles, including California, where Tesla has a permit to test them with a driver. The state could be a more challenging environment than places such as Texas, which has fewer hurdles.
Tesla has given little details on how it aims to roll out the service. The Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation doesn’t currently list Tesla as a rideshare licensee. Musk said Tesla wants the service to be “way safer” than human drivers.
Tesla’s plan to sell more affordable vehicles remains on track, the company said, with production set to start in the first half of this year. The Cybercab also is on track for 2026.
The company said it plans to make the new vehicles using a mix of current production methods and a next-generation platform. The strategy will lead to higher costs than previously expected but will allow Tesla to expand vehicle volumes more efficiently during “uncertain times.”
Lowered Bar
Garrett Nelson, an analyst with CFRA, said Tesla’s outlook for vehicle sales growth this year resonated with investors because it appeared more realistic than Musk’s earlier pledge of growth for growth of as much as 30%.
“The bar has been lowered to much more achievable levels, so therefore they are much more likely to hit it going forward,” Nelson said.
He added that Musk’s relationship with Trump is also seen as a positive as Tesla focuses on autonomy and the potential for changes to federal regulations.
“Musk has the president’s ear,” Nelson said. “He’s going to have a major place at the table as far as what the regulatory framework looks like — and we think it will be favorable to Tesla.”
In other data from the company’s fourth quarter, the company reported $692 million in revenue from the sale of regulatory credits to car manufacturers that need to comply with strict pollution standards. That’s below the $739 million it reported in the previous quarter.
Adjusted earnings were 73 cents a share for the quarter, missing analysts’ average estimates of 75 cents.
Taneja said that the net income was impacted by a $600 million mark-to-market benefit from Bitcoin due to the adoption of new accounting standards for digital assets.
