After Donald Trump becomes president again on Monday, he is on the hook for achieving a hefty chunk of his promises even before the day is out. One of those promises is to make you dizzy.
“Your head will spin when you see what’s going to happen,” he said of Day 1.
Steady yourself. This is some of what the Republican promised voters he would get done on his first day in office:
— Launch the largest deportation in U.S. history to remove all people in the country illegally.
— Close the border.
— End automatic citizenship for everyone born in the U.S., known as birthright citizenship.
— Sign pardons for some or many of those convicted or charged in the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol.
— Impose a 25% tariff on everything imported from Mexico and Canada and add a 10% tariff to duties already imposed on goods from China.
— Even before Monday, end the Russia-Ukraine war.
— End what he calls the “electric vehicle mandate.”
— Declare a national energy emergency to spur the approval of more drilling, pipelines, refineries, power plants and reactors.
— Cut federal money to schools that push “critical race theory, transgender insanity and other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content onto the shoulders of our children.” Also cut money to any schools that have a vaccine or mask mandate.
— Take steps to uproot the “deep state.”
All of that on Monday?
Not likely. Trump simply can’t accomplish all he said he will do on Day 1 because there are two more branches of government — Congress and the courts. The constitutional right to birthright citizenship, for example, cannot be ended with a stroke of his pen. (Moreover, in 2017 he considered Jan. 21 — his first full day on the job after the Jan. 20 inauguration — to be his Day 1.)
But as other presidents have done — and as Trump did aggressively and with decidedly mixed results in his first term — he will quickly test the limits of his executive power.
The power to pardon is within his grasp, and he can steer border enforcement efforts, tweak tariffs and find ways to spur energy production without Congress necessarily having to pass a law. Yet many of his executive orders will essentially be statements of intent — stage setters for struggles to come.
Here’s a closer look at what he promised to do on Day 1:
Immigration
The promise
“On Day 1, I will launch the largest deportation program in American history.”
Under this core promise, Trump would unilaterally declare a national emergency to set the stage for tracking down millions of people in the United States illegally and holding them in huge detention centers until they can be removed from the country.
What could he do?
Domestic police forces and the National Guard in some states could be empowered to help federal agents in an extraordinary effort to track down and deport millions of people. As a disincentive to cross into the U.S. illegally, it is untested. Illegal crossings surged during the Biden administration before dropping recently and hovering near a four-year low.
How serious is he?
Trump made this central promise in rally after rally and in other public comments. It’s unclear whether the declaration of a national emergency would come as part of his Day 1 launch or after.
What he said in the campaign
“The day I take the oath of office, the migrant invasion ends and the restoration of our country begins. … On Day 1, I will launch the largest deportation program in American history. I will rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered.” — Kinston, North Carolina, rally, Nov. 3, 2024.
Since the election …
— Trump said in an interview with Time magazine that the federal prohibition on using military forces for most domestic security enforcement should not apply “if it’s an invasion of our country, and I consider it an invasion of our country.”
“And I think in many cases, the sheriffs and law enforcement is going to need help. We’ll also get National Guard,” he said during the November 2024 interview.
— In a possible hedge to his vow to deport everyone who’s in the U.S. illegally, Trump said, “We’re starting with the criminals, and we’ve got to do it. And then we’re starting with others, and we’re going to see how it goes.” — “Meet the Press,” Dec. 8, 2024.
In the past
The Dwight Eisenhower administration in the 1950s and Franklin Roosevelt’s in the 1930s carried out mass deportations, specifically of Mexicans. Estimates of the number of people taken out of the U.S. in the 1950s deportation range from several hundred thousand to 1.3 million. Many were U.S. citizens descended from Mexican migrants. An FDR-era deportation ejected an estimated 1 million or more people, most of whom held U.S. citizenship.
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The promise
Close the U.S. border.
What he said in the campaign
“And on Day 1, I will close the border, and I will stop the invasion of illegal criminals coming into our country.” — Coachella, California, rally, Oct. 12, 2024.
How serious is he?
Not serious about closing U.S. land borders, as promised. Instead, he aims to come forward with Day 1 administrative action tightening enforcement against criminal entry.
Since the election …
Trump adviser Jason Miller walked it back: “Now, when you say close the border, the impression is that nobody’s allowed to go back and forth. What the border will be closed to is for people trying to enter the United States illegally. So there’s a distinction. I want to make sure people don’t think that all of a sudden, like all trade between the countries or traditional commerce or it’s going to be shut down.” — Interview with NPR News, Dec. 17, 2024.
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The promise
On Day 1, end automatic citizenship for everyone born in the U.S., including children of parents who came to the country illegally.
What he said
“I will sign a Day 1 executive order ending automatic citizenship for the children of illegal aliens.” — Pickens, South Carolina, rally, July 1, 2023.
What it means if he keeps the promise
This is a broken promise waiting to happen.
Trump is extremely unlikely to be able to achieve his promise by mere executive order, because birthright citizenship is enshrined in the Constitution. He could only embark on a daunting quest to build the support that would be needed not just to win congressional approval but to change the 14th Amendment, which states: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”
Since the election …
In a remark conceding an executive order may not be enough to end birthright citizenship: “We’ll maybe have to go back to the people.” — NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Dec. 8, 2024.
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Tariffs
The (post-election) promise
Impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico and put an additional 10% tariff on everything from China, as one of his first executive orders upon becoming president.
What it means if he keeps the promise
A seismic shock to the highly integrated North American economies, almost certainly resulting in higher prices for consumers and probably retaliation against U.S. exports. It would also strengthen incentives to produce more in the U.S. and step up pressure to restrain migrant flows and drug smuggling.
How serious is he?
Serious in general terms, maybe not in the specifics here.
He has tied this heavy round of tariffs to what he calls the failure of these countries to stem the flow of Chinese-made fentanyl smuggled into the U.S. or to take effective steps from their side against migration surges at the borders. That stance may leave room for negotiation or revision.
What he said
“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States.” In addition, “we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States” until China stems the flow of drugs into the U.S. — Truth Social posts, Nov. 25, 2024.
Post-election hedge
“We adjust it somewhat” if tariffs are merely passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices, as is usually the case. — “Meet the Press,” Dec. 8, 2024.
In the past
Trump imposed higher tariffs on $360 billion in Chinese goods in his first term. Democrat Joe Biden not only retained those penalties as president but imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. Trump also renegotiated parts of the free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico on terms he considered more favorable to the U.S.
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Transgender rights
The promise
“On Day 1, I will sign a new executive order to cut federal funding for any school, pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity, and other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content onto the shoulders of our children. And I will not give one penny to any school that has a vaccine mandate or a mask mandate. — Atlanta rally, Aug. 3, 2024.
What it means if he keeps his promise
Such broad cuts are unlikely to be achieved through executive action, absent legislation, which certainly won’t be in place on his first day. Still, Trump may be able to use his threat as a cudgel in certain situations.
Trump had also promised on Day 1 to roll back Biden administration Title IX protections barring discrimination against students based on gender identity and sexual orientation. But this month a federal judge struck down those regulations, ruling that they overstepped presidential authority.
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Electric vehicles
The promise
“‘I will end the electric vehicle mandate on Day 1.” — Republican National Convention speech, July 18, 2024.
What it means if he keeps his promise
How serious is he?
He made the Day 1 promise in rally after rally, often in identical words. He told podcaster Joe Rogan it might take him two days.
What he said
Since the election
“We want people to buy electric cars” but “we’re going to end the electric mandate immediately for the cars. It’s ridiculous.” — “Meet the Press,” Dec. 8, 2024.
In the past
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Jan. 6
The promise
Pardon some or many of the people convicted of or charged with crimes from the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol: “I will sign their pardons on Day 1.”
What it means if he keeps his promise
Freedom and cleared criminal records for some of those imprisoned for Jan. 6 crimes and impunity for others convicted or awaiting trial. As he has described his promised process, it also means his transition team is reviewing Jan. 6 cases to deem who merits a Jan. 20 pardon, independently of how courts ruled.
How serious is he?
What he said in the campaign
“The moment we win, we will rapidly review the cases of every political prisoner unjustly victimized by the Harris regime, and I will sign their pardons on Day 1.” — Mosinee, Wisconsin, rally, Sept. 7, 2024.
“Oh, absolutely, I would,” he said when asked about pardoning Jan. 6 rioters. “If they’re innocent — if they’re innocent, I would pardon them.” This could include some who were convicted under “a very tough system.” — National Association of Black Journalists interview, July 31, 2024.
Since the election …
Asked if he still intends to pardon Jan. 6 rioters on his first day: “We’re looking at it right now. Most likely, yeah. … Most likely, I’ll do it very quickly.” — “Meet the Press,” Dec. 8, 2024.
In the past
Trump’s remarks from the White House on Jan. 13, 2021, before reversing course and characterizing the rioters as patriots who protested mostly peacefully: “I would like to begin by addressing the heinous attack on the United States Capitol. Like all Americans, I am outraged by the violence, lawlessness and mayhem. I immediately deployed the National Guard and federal law enforcement to secure the building and expel the intruders. America is, and must always be, a nation of law and order. The demonstrators who infiltrated the Capitol have defiled the seat of American democracy.”
Energy
The promise
Declare a national energy emergency and approve new energy projects “starting on Day 1.”
What it means if he keeps his promise
How serious is he?
Very. “Drill, baby, drill” was a mantra rivaling “Make America great again” in his public remarks.
What he said in the campaign
“Starting on Day 1, I will approve new drilling, new pipelines, new refineries, new power plants, new reactors, and we will slash the red tape.” — Potterville, Michigan rally, Aug. 29, 2024.
“I will immediately issue a national emergency declaration to achieve a massive increase in domestic energy supply.” — New York Economic Club speech, Sept. 5, 2024.
Russia-Ukraine war
The promise
End the war before taking office.
What he said in the campaign
“I’ll get the war with Ukraine and Russia ended. If I’m president-elect, I’ll get it done before even becoming president.” — Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends,” Sept. 11, 2024.
Post-election hedge
His promise to end the war before taking office — or to end it in 24 hours, as he sometimes put it — is about to be broken.
Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said the day after the election that Trump would bring the Russian and Ukrainian leaders to the negotiating table on Day 1. That’s not ending a war, as promised, before Monday.
‘Deep state’
The promise
Launch an effort to fire or otherwise neutralize the influence of federal workers he considers disloyal and an impediment to his agenda. Also, use legal intimidation or other means to crush those he regards as his political enemies.
What he said in the campaign
“We’re going to find the ‘deep state’ actors who have buried into government, fire them and escort them from federal buildings, and it’ll go very quickly.” — Columbia, South Carolina, rally, Jan. 28, 2023.
“You’ll see that, on the very first day of my presidency, the ‘deep state’ is destroying our nation. But the tables must turn, and we will quickly destroy the ‘deep state.’” — speech to Alabama GOP dinner in Montgomery, Aug. 4, 2023.
What it means if he keeps his promise
A likely first step is an executive order seeking to reclassify tens of thousands of job-protected and apolitical civil servants as political appointees, subject to being fired at will. He would do so by reviving his Schedule F order from 2020, which Biden reversed when he took office.
