• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia
Tech

Elon Musk bet me $1 million the U.S. would not see 35,000 cases of Covid—then turned on me when it happened, says Sam Harris

By
Beatrice Nolan
Beatrice Nolan
Tech Reporter
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Beatrice Nolan
Beatrice Nolan
Tech Reporter
Down Arrow Button Icon
January 16, 2025, 11:22 AM ET
Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla departs court in 2023.
Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla, departs court in 2023.Benjamin Fanjoy/Bloomberg via Getty Images
  • Podcaster Sam Harris claims his friendship with Elon Musk ended after a $1 million COVID-19 bet over U.S. case numbers.

Podcaster and neuroscientist Sam Harris claims Elon Musk once bet him $1 million that the U.S. wouldn’t see more than 35,000 cases of COVID-19.

Recommended Video

In an explosive Substack post titled “The Trouble With Elon Musk,” Harris detailed his fallout with his former friend, publishing texts exchanged during the coronavirus pandemic’s early days.

He cites one incident where the Tesla CEO bet him $1 million against a $1,000 bottle of tequila that the U.S. wouldn’t see as many as 35,000 cases of COVID-19.

Harris said he tried to up the bet to 3.5 million cases of COVID-19 at the time, but Musk accused him of “having lost [his] mind” and insisted on sticking with 35,000 cases.

After the CDC reported 35,000 deaths from COVID-19 a few weeks later, Harris said he texted Musk: “Is (35,000 deaths + 600,000 cases) > 35,000 cases?”

The text went unanswered, according to Harris, who cites the message as the end of their years-long friendship.

“Let this be a cautionary tale for any of Elon’s friends who might be tempted to tell the great man something he doesn’t want to hear,” Harris said in the post.

Musk publicly criticized the early concerns surrounding COVID-19 in 2020, stating in an X post, “The coronavirus panic is dumb.”

As the pandemic spread, he became increasingly skeptical of COVID-19 vaccines and also attacked former chief medical advisor to the President of the United States, Anthony Fauci, who oversaw the country’s response to the pandemic.

In December 2022, Musk called for Fauci’s prosecution, posting on X: “My pronouns are Prosecute/Fauci.”

Representatives for Musk did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fortune.

Harris and Musk: Friends to Foes

Harris and Musk were friends for years before the alleged fallout.

In his Substack post, Harris said he knew Musk in 2008 when Tesla was struggling to make payroll, and Musk was “living off loans from his friends Larry [Page] and Sergey [Brin].”

He praised Musk as a remarkable person who was “probably the most likely to remain a world-historical figure” but also “the most likely to squander his ample opportunities to live a happy life, ruin his reputation and most important relationships, and produce lasting harm across the globe.”

Over the past few years, the two have traded public barbs.

Musk has attacked Harris on X, calling him “mentally ill” and “an utter idiot.” Harris has called the billionaire a bully and alleged his former pal is addicted to social media.

In an episode of “The Bulwark” podcast released in November last year, Harris said the billionaire was “snorting ketamine and tweeting at all hours of the day and night.”

Harris criticized Musk’s social media use again in the recent post.

“Any dispassionate observer of Elon’s behavior on Twitter/X can see that there is something seriously wrong with his moral compass, if not his perception of reality,” he said.

Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation Summit May 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
About the Author
By Beatrice NolanTech Reporter
Twitter icon

Beatrice Nolan is a tech reporter on Fortune’s AI team, covering artificial intelligence and emerging technologies and their impact on work, industry, and culture. She's based in Fortune's London office and holds a bachelor’s degree in English from the University of York. You can reach her securely via Signal at beatricenolan.08

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Tech

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • Future 50
  • World’s Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
Sections
  • Finance
  • Leadership
  • Success
  • Tech
  • Asia
  • Europe
  • Environment
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Health
  • Retail
  • Lifestyle
  • Politics
  • Newsletters
  • Magazine
  • Features
  • Commentary
  • Mpw
  • CEO Initiative
  • Conferences
  • Personal Finance
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
About Us
  • About Us
  • Editorial Calendar
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Diversity And Inclusion
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.


Most Popular

placeholder alt text
Economy
'I just don't have a good feeling about this': Top economist Claudia Sahm says the economy quietly shifted and everyone's now looking at the wrong alarm
By Eleanor PringleJanuary 31, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Future of Work
Ford CEO has 5,000 open mechanic jobs with up to 6-figure salaries from the shortage of manually skilled workers: 'We are in trouble in our country'
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJanuary 31, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Success
Ryan Serhant starts work at 4:30 a.m.—he says most people don’t achieve their dreams because ‘what they really want is just to be lazy’
By Preston ForeJanuary 31, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Success
Alexis Ohanian walked out of the LSAT 20 minutes in, went to a Waffle House, and decided he was 'gonna invent a career.' He founded Reddit
By Preston ForeJanuary 31, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Economy
Meet the first CEO of the IRS: A Jamie Dimon protege facing a $5 trillion test this tax season
By Shawn TullyJanuary 31, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Startups & Venture
Silicon Valley legend Kleiner Perkins was written off. Then an unlikely VC showed up
By Allie GarfinkleJanuary 31, 2026
21 hours ago

Latest in Tech

dewar
CommentaryLeadership
The AI adoption story is haunted by fear as today’s efficiency programs look like tomorrow’s job cuts. Leaders need to win workers’ trust
By Carolyn DewarFebruary 1, 2026
3 hours ago
trader
Investingbubble
‘We’re not in a bubble yet’ because only 3 out of 4 conditions are met, top economist says. Cue the OpenAI IPO
By Nick LichtenbergFebruary 1, 2026
3 hours ago
Big TechMark Zuckerberg
The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative cut 70 jobs as the Meta CEO’s philanthropy goes all in on mission to ‘cure or prevent all disease’
By Sydney LakeFebruary 1, 2026
5 hours ago
The founder and CEO of $1.25 billion AI identity verification platform Incode, Ricardo Amper
SuccessGen Z
CEO of $1.25 billion AI company says he hires Gen Z because they’re ‘less biased’ than older generations—too much knowledge is actually bad, he warns
By Emma BurleighFebruary 1, 2026
6 hours ago
Several pictures of people receiving medical treatments including a facelift and oxygen therapy.
HealthSuper Bowl
Hims and Hers Super Bowl ad highlights ‘uncomfortable truth’ about elite healthcare for the rich and ‘broken’ system for the rest
By Jacqueline MunisFebruary 1, 2026
7 hours ago
Elon Musk sits with his hands on his knees in front of a blue "World Economic Forum" background.
Economythe future of work
Musk’s fantasy for a future where work is optional just got more real: UK minister calls for universal basic income to cushion AI-related job losses
By Sasha RogelbergFebruary 1, 2026
7 hours ago