As if he wasn’t busy enough planning a second administration and quieting rumors that Elon Musk is pulling the strings, President-elect Donald Trump has suggested that the United States take over Canada. Within an hour of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement, Donald Trump reiterated his pitch that Canada should join the United States. “If Canada merged with the U.S. there would be no Tariffs, taxes would go way down, and they would be totally secure…What a great nation we would be,” he wrote in a Truth Social post on Monday. The following day at a press conference, he stated that he will use “economic force” to encourage Canadians to abandon the “artificially drawn” border with the U.S.
There’s a long history of U.S. leaders jockeying for control of their larger northern neighbor. Both the American Revolutionary War and War of 1812 featured U.S. ambitions for Canadian annexation. Such talk rose again following the Civil War five decades later—a threat so grave that it motivated Canada’s political leadership to incorporate as a new country, rather than a British colony, to control their own destiny and tell the Yanks “no thanks.”
Trump picked a choice moment to make a move on Ottawa. Canadians are in a dour mood, leading some on its cultural and political fringes to seriously consider the upside of a Washington tie-up. Canadian investor and Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary, for instance, called a potential U.S.-Canadian merger “a great idea” and “huge opportunity.” Now Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said he’ll resign, and with the ensuing political instability we might look like a sitting duck.
The problem is that Canadians overwhelmingly want to remain Canadian. A recent poll found that 94% of Canadians prefer not to join the U.S. Canadians are as likely to give up their national identity as Americans would be, and everyone here is deeply offended at the suggestion of abandoning our beloved country.
Canada’s worth
Still, the U.S. is the world’s largest economy and an undisputed leader in technology and innovation, and Canada could gain serious economic benefits to an ever-closer union with her southern neighbor. Canadians are proud, but we’re also nothing if not open-minded; perhaps we should at least consider the idea.
Make an offer, America—but here are our terms:
To begin, let’s talk about valuation—what is Washington willing to pay for a merger? Canada is the world’s second largest country, has the world’s largest coastline, and is the fourth largest oil producer. Oh, we’re also home to more than 10% of the planet’s fresh water, not to mention a thriving economy.
In her 2013 book Merger of the Century, U.S.-Canadian writer Diane Francis argued that the two countries should be combined, and she enlisted an investment banker to determine the price tag. The two used metrics sourced from the CIA’s World Factbook—comparing U.S. and Canadian GDPs; their total land areas, including offshore rights; debts; foreign reserves, and gold assets; renewable resources such as water and farmland; and fossil fuel production. In rough numbers, Canada was worth $17 trillion more than the U.S., equivalent to $492,529 per Canadian!
Sorry, Congress, looks like you’ll need to reconsider that pesky debt ceiling.
Canadian principles
Trump is proposing a political, not just economic merger. Both countries share many common values—free speech, the rule of law, and democracy. But the new country would need to adopt principles and institutions that Canadians hold dear for any deal to be acceptable.
- Statehood. Canada is home to 10 provinces and a trio of territories—and each will demand recognition and representation. Ontario, where I live, has 16 million residents, which would make it the fifth largest state in the new U.S. of A (and C). My city, Toronto, would be the third most populous in the new nation. Citizens of each province and territory will never forsake their identities any more than, say, Texans would, and they will insist upon full-fledged statehood. Back in 1776, the U.S. began with just 13 states—a new Canadian-American nation would need to begin with 13 more.
- Health care. Canadians love to complain about our health-care system, but we could never give it up. Americans should adopt it, too. A nationalized system, like ours, would bring big benefits. Canada spends just 11% of its GDP on health care, and everyone is covered. The U.S. shells out 19% and there are still 26 million people lacking insurance, with tens of millions receiving inadequate care. Canadians also live six years longer than their American counterparts and perform better on virtually every other health measure, from infant mortality to obesity and mental health.
- Women’s rights. Get ready, America: Canada has no abortion laws. Abortion is treated like any medical issue—patients determine treatment in consultation with their doctor. There are also no restrictions on birth control or IVF. And Canadian parents get paid maternity and paternity leave. How’s that for family values?
- Climate change. Canadians generally believe that climate change is an existential crisis—and that humans have caused it. True, we’ve historically benefitted from fossil fuels, but we play our role in the green economy through government investments, entrepreneurship, and yes, carbon taxation.
- Crime. Criminal laws—and penalties—are uniform across Canada, which abolished the death penalty in 1976. Our homicide rate is one-third that of the U.S.; and while many Canadians enjoy their firearms, gun-control laws from the late 1970s have limited gun-related deaths to just 300 per year. Compare that to almost 50,000 annually south of the border and you’ll understand why we believe our system is better.
- Immigration. Although we haven’t always gotten it right, Canada is welcoming to immigrants, replacing the “melting pot” ideal with more of a “vertical mosaic” where different cultures and communities benefit from one another. We’ve accepted refugees at a rate of 10 times the U.S. per capita. This has paid off; refugees make great citizens here and achieve higher education levels than other Canadians.
- Education. Funding for K-12 education in Canada is also standardized; wealthy neighborhoods receive the same per student funding as poor ones. This has paid off too: 61% of Canadians hold some kind of postsecondary education, compared to less than half of Americans, while Canadian students perform far better on standardized tests across the board.
- Political systems. Despite our two very different political systems, Canadians will insist on campaign financing laws. Here, corporations and individuals can donate a maximum of under $2,000 to candidates or parties. There are no PACs—hence no Citizens United. And election losers always transfer power peacefully.
If America can agree to adopt this simple list, then let’s talk. Oh—and we’d also like the Memphis Grizzlies and Colorado Avalanche repatriated to their ancestral homes of Vancouver and Quebec City.
Read more:
- Trump’s impact on M&A: Part chaos, part back-to-business, all action
- In Trump 2.0, growing, spending, or squandering an enviable macroeconomic inheritance are all on the table
- The ‘Trump bump’ has survived tariff announcements—but will it survive the good, the bad, and the unknown in his cabinet?
- Trump’s plans to kill EV subsidies signal a new era of climate tech Darwinism
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