Today: The S&P 500 index closed above 6,000 points yesterday after giving up some gains and is now up 0.65% on the month, having regained most of the losses it saw immediately before Christmas. Asian and European stocks ticked up this morning. US futures called for some profit-taking today.
Moscow rejected Trump’s call for a ceasefire in Ukraine. “A ceasefire is a road to nowhere,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
Europe’s competitiveness is “in a crisis”
Is 2025 going to be the year in which Europe becomes competitive again, after years in which it trailed both the US and China in economic performance? Not according to Philippe Ducom, President, Europe, of oil giant Exxon.
Europe’s competitiveness is “in a crisis”, he told me in a phone interview. And if in the next few years the EU keeps trying to regulate itself out of the crisis, “it’s not going to work.”
Despite his company having major operations in the continent, and investing $20 billion globally in decarbonization by 2027, the Texas-based company isn’t anticipating more than a “fraction” of its investments to happen in Europe. The US is expected to get much more of Exxon’s clean energy investments, including new low-carbon hydrogen and lithium plants in Texas and Arkansas.
The rift between Europe’s policymakers and some of the bloc’s largest energy suppliers isn’t surprising, given that oil and gas were designated “non grata” in the bloc’s future plans.
While Exxon has repeatedly stated it supports both the Paris Agreement and the EU’s ambitions to decarbonize, it has also always made it clear it doesn’t plan to limit its supply of fossil fuels as long as demand for it exists.
“Whether to get rid of oil and gas is not the right question,” Ducom repeated his company’s mantra to me. “How to shift demand is the real question. We cannot legally and will not lower supply when the demand is there.”
It’s not surprising, either, that Ducom particularly dislikes ESG-related regulation, such as the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Standards (CSRD), which kicked in this year, and the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) which is gradually coming into effect as of 2026.
“Pausing CSDDDD and CSRD would be a very strong message to say, we heard you,” he told me. “The first and best thing is to reduce regulatory burden.”
It’s unlikely Ducom’s comments will be broadly cheered, let alone implemented in European political circles. But with Europe’s economy stagnant, many of Germany’s industries losing competitiveness, and a more hostile trade environment in the US looming, the company’s warnings may need to be taken more seriously.
This week, Qatar’s energy minister also warned of the consequences of implementing the CSDDD, which seeks stricter oversight in companies’ supply chains regarding carbon emissions, human and labor rights.
“If the case is that I lose 5 per cent of my generated revenue by going to Europe, I will not go to Europe . … I’m not bluffing,” Saad Al-Kaabi, the Qatari energy minister told the FT this week. (The CSDDD “requires EU countries to introduce powers to impose fines for non-compliance with an upper limit of at least 5 per cent of the company’s annual global revenue”, the paper also reported).
Exxon, which has 6,000 Esso service stations in Europe, and 5 refineries, isn’t as brazen in its threats to the EU. But Ducom equally doesn’t think there is much for the continent to look forward to in the new year either, unless radical policy changes are made.
“Decarbonization through deindustrialization really is not the right thing to do, but it’s the path Europe is on right now.”
Also on the radar today:
- Russian anti-aircraft fire probably caused the civilian plane crash in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day. Thirty-eight people died but 29 survived.
- The extremely long list of everything Trump said he would do on “Day One” of his new administration.
- Only 19% of Americans believe the country is heading in the “right direction,” according to a new poll by Gallup.
- Richard D. Parsons, the former CEO of Time Warner and chairman of Citigroup, has died. He was 76.
- Elon Musk has been taking the weight-loss drug Mounjaro. He christened himself “Ozempic Santa” in a photo post on X.
From the analysts:
Goldman Sachs expects global real GDP growth of 2.7% year-on-year in 2025 and “above-consensus” real GDP growth of 2.4% year-on-year in the U.S. The bank is still expecting three interest rate cuts from the Fed, of 25 points each, according to a note seen by Fortune.
More news below.
Peter Vanham
peter.vanham@fortune.com
TOP NEWS
Southeast Asian countries at risk from renewed Trump trade war
Countries like Vietnam, which enjoy large trade surpluses with the U.S., are now at risk from a possible round of new U.S. tariffs. Vietnam—a major beneficiary of shifting supply chains during Trump’s first trade war with China—now has the third-largest trade surplus with the U.S., after Canada and Mexico. Yet Trump’s attention will likely be focused on China, which could fuel even more manufacturing to the relatively safer ground of Southeast Asia. Fortune
Russia’s gas lifeline runs through Ukraine—even amid war
Russia continues to pipe an estimated $5 billion worth of gas through pipelines in Ukraine, even more than two years since President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion. The transit deal expires at the end of the year, and the two sides have yet to reach a deal on a new contract. Ukraine only made $800 million from handling Russia’s gas, according to an analysis from the Center for European Policy Analysis. Fortune
Is overtourism over?
Tourists may start to shift their travel patterns away from viral hotspots next year, in order to avoid contributing to the issue of overtourism. That could make 2025 “the year of gatekeeping in travel,” Alex Penadés, CMO at Spanish property management firm Avantio, tells Fortune. Tourist hotspots around the world—particularly in Europe and Asia—have tried to clamp down on visitor numbers, instituting caps and extra fees to keep visitor numbers under control. Fortune
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
Live Nation hopes for another big year of acquisitions despite an antitrust lawsuit that could lead to a break-up by Allie Garfinkle
Boomer-centric wine industry at a crossroads as Gen Z turns away from alcohol by Chris Morris
Scientist says the one thing everyone hates about AI is ultimately what helped him win a Nobel Prize by Dave Smith
Your Gen Z and millennial employees hate when you use these corporate buzzwords by Orianna Rosa Royle
Researchers have followed over 700 people since 1938 to find the keys to happiness. Here’s what they discovered by Alexa Mikhail
Commentary: Americans over 75 have the highest rates of suicide. How to prevent depression with aging, according to AARP by Debra Whitman
This edition of CEO Daily was curated by Nicholas Gordon and Jim Edwards.
