- The cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket shows the odds of a government shutdown at more than 50%. Elon Musk and Donald Trump don’t seem too worried.
The cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket had Donald Trump favored to win the presidential election, and then he did. It had Scott Bessent favored to secure the president-elect’s nomination for Treasury secretary, too, and he did.
Now people are betting on whether there’ll be a government shutdown, and Polymarket puts the odds of it happening at 61% at the moment, but it’s swinging rapidly. Odds spiked as high as 75% late Thursday, then dipped below 50% on Friday before topping 60% again later.
Another prediction market, Kalshi, puts the odds of a government shutdown this year at 57%, up from 48.5% earlier Friday and just 33% on Thursday.
There is no guarantee. But the way things are looking, a partial shutdown could very well happen. For the latest odds, check here and here.
It appears the richest man in the world, tapped to run a brand new cost cutting initiative, and the president-elect are fine with a government shutdown, as long as it’s not technically on their watch. On Friday, Elon Musk posted to his social media platform: “Either the government should pass sensible bills that actually serve the people or shut it down!”
Our former and future president was a bit more blunt, posting to his social media platform: “If there is going to be a shutdown of government, let it begin now, under the Biden Administration, not after January 20th, under ‘TRUMP.’ This is a Biden problem to solve, but if Republicans can help solve it, they will!”
That only added to the twists and turns that complicated the last few days on Capitol Hill.
So let’s take a step back. On Wednesday, Musk spent the day ripping a bipartisan spending package that could have kept the government open. He used X to call it one of the worst bills ever written, tell his audience to call their elected representatives, and demanded that it be killed. Then Trump tagged in and threatened any Republican who voted for it. So House Speaker Mike Johnson scrapped the bill that he was defending earlier.
On Thursday, a slimmed down version backed by Trump failed to pass. Trump called the plan vital and told Republicans (and even Democrats) to vote yes. Thirty-eight Republicans voted against it and defied Trump. That was Plan B. Oh and I might add that Trump has yet to step foot in the Oval Office and his billionaire backer isn’t an elected official.
At this point, lawmakers have until midnight to pass a bill, and for President Joe Biden, who seems to be waiting this one out on the sidelines, to sign it into law. If not, the government shuts down just in time for Christmas. On Friday, Johnson told reporters, “We’re expecting votes this morning…So y’all stay tuned, we’ve got a plan,” according to the Wall Street Journal.
But the Washington Post, citing two people familiar with the matter, reported that the White House Office of Management and Budget has alerted federal agencies early Friday to prepare for a government shutdown.
The Trump-J.D. Vance transition team did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment. Although on Thursday, transition spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement: “As soon as President Trump released his official stance on the CR, Republicans on Capitol Hill echoed his point of view. President Trump is the leader of the Republican Party. Full stop,” referring to the spending bill. That was of course before the Trump-backed bill failed, too.
