Election Day’s arrival can now be measured in hours rather than months, weeks, or days, meaning voters who have yet to make up their minds must finally pick a side.
Polling expert Frank Luntz has said Americans who are truly undecided by at this late stage probably won’t vote for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, and may even sit out the election.
But he thinks there are uncommitted and persuadable voters who could represent a decisive margin. And fresh data are showing signs that those voters are gritting their teeth, holding their noses, and choosing between two people they don’t like.
The latest New York Times/Siena College poll released on Sunday showed close races in the seven main battleground states. But among those who decided in the last few days, Harris has a 58%-42% advantage.
There are regional differences, however, that could scramble the Electoral College map and upend expectations of which states will provide the winning votes.
Among late deciders in the Sunbelt, Harris leads by 66% to 34%, according to the Times. Among late deciders in the North, Trump leads 60% to 40%.
The numbers mean that Democrats’ so-called blue wall strategy of securing victory via Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin may be at risk. But they also suggest Harris has an alternate route through parts of the South and West.
In the Times poll, Harris has a three-point lead in Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina along with a one-point edge in Georgia. Trump has a four-point lead in Arizona and a one-point advantage in Michigan. The two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania. But results from all seven states were within the margin of sampling error.
Meanwhile, the closely followed Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by Selzer & Co. showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44%, a stunning reversal from September.
The numbers shocked election watchers late Saturday as it signaled that not only could a deep-red state suddenly be in play but that Harris may have more support in other parts of the Midwest.
That’s because the same poll in 2020 poured cold water on Democrats’ hopes for a landslide in the region as other surveys pointed to big leads for Joe Biden. In the eventual vote tally, he barely squeaked by Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania with narrow margins.
Elsewhere, prediction markets over the past week have swung wildly from giving Trump a big advantage to showing a dead heat or even a slight edge for Harris.
And Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, told Fortune recently that Trump is suffering an historic collapse in the campaign’s final days that could result in Harris winning the election.
The turning point came late last month during Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden. That’s when comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean,” sparking a massive backlash.
