Backed by the full faith and credit of the federal government, U.S. Treasury bonds have long been viewed as the gold standard in safe investments.
In times of uncertainty, economic downturns, or full-blown crises, investors have flocked to Treasuries as a haven. But what if actual gold is the new gold standard for a safe investment?
Analysts at Bank of America asked that question in a note on Wednesday, explaining that the outlook for U.S. debt is bullish for the precious metal.
With debt as a share of GDP set to break record highs in the coming years, the Treasury Department has to sell more and more bonds to investors, who may demand higher yields. And when yields rise, the price of bonds on the secondary market falls.
That has helped weaken the historical correlation between bond yields and gold prices. While lower rates are still bullish for gold, which doesn’t pay interest or dividends, higher rates don’t necessarily put pressure on bullion anymore, BofA said, maintaining a gold price target of $3,000 per ounce.
“Indeed, with lingering concerns over U.S. funding needs and their impact on the U.S. Treasury market, the yellow metal may become the ultimate perceived safe haven asset,” the analysts wrote.
Gold has been on a tear recently, with prices up more than 30% so far this year, topping $2,700 per ounce for the first time ever this past week.
That’s even as bond yields have rebounded since the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut last month, while fresh budget data showed that the deficit was $1.8 trillion for the fiscal year that ended on Sept. 30. Meanwhile, the interest expense alone on U.S. debt was $950 billion, more than defense spending and up 35% from the prior fiscal year, owing mostly to higher rates.
There is no relief in sight as the deficit will expand under either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, though less so under the Democrat, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
“Indeed, rising funding needs, debt servicing costs, and concerns over the sustainability of fiscal policy may well mean that gold prices could increase, if rates move up,” BofA said.
With the supply of U.S. debt poised to continue surging, concerns have grown about demand and whether investors will keep absorbing more Treasury bonds.
That provides a strong incentive to central banks around the world to keep diversifying their reserves away from U.S. debt and toward gold, BofA added.
To be sure, the U.S. isn’t the only country overflowing with red ink. But its soaring debt and deficits have been notable as they come during a strong economy and not while fighting a world war or some other calamity like a pandemic.
Meanwhile, spending will likely go up as climate change, older demographics, and military needs add more pressure on budgets.
So is gold a safer investment than Treasuries?
“Ultimately, something has to give: If markets become reluctant to absorb all the debt and volatility increases, gold may be the last perceived safe haven asset standing,” BofA said.