Boeing has clearly had a turbulent year. From several safety incidents to the Starliner fiasco to bringing in a new CEO amid a massive workers’ strike, the company has endured blow after blow.
And now, it appears the aviation giant is bleeding money. As of Sept. 27, the fallout from 33,000 workers striking accounted for a $1 billion reduction in U.S. GDP, according to economic analysis and modeling company IMPLAN. On Tuesday, Boeing suspended its ongoing negotiations with striking workers, accusing the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) of making unreasonable demands and withdrew its previous offer for a 30% pay increase over four years.
As a result, Wells Fargo predicts Boeing will sell between $10 billion and $15 billion in new stock to account for lost earnings, according to an analyst note dated Oct. 9. Boeing previously targeted $10 billion in working cash on its balance sheet, and Wells Fargo estimates cash dropped to roughly $8 billion at the end of the third quarter.
Boeing declined a request for comment from Fortune about whether the company would sell new stock.
A $10 billion cash raise keeps balances above the $10 billion watermark through 2025, “but leaves little room for any further challenges while we don’t think [Boeing] wants to go to equity markets twice,” according to the note. Still, Wells Fargo analysts say this leaves Boeing with about $30 billion to $40 billion in net debt.
“This financial strain is compounded by the potential for a credit rating downgrade from agencies like S&P, which have already placed Boeing’s debt on watch,” Jon Morgan, CEO of business consultancy Venture Smarter, told Fortune. “Considering these factors, an equity offering seems a plausible step for Boeing to shore up its finances. The company needs to ensure it has sufficient liquidity to deal with the ongoing labor disputes and maintain its operations.”
When would Boeing issue an equity offering?
Considering it took 10 days for the union and Boeing to meet at the negotiating table when talks first fell apart on Sept. 27, Wells Fargo expects there may be “one more shot at getting a deal” before Boeing releases its latest earnings on Oct. 23.
“We believe [Boeing] would like to reach a deal before raising further cash through an equity offering,” according to the analyst note.
Wells Fargo analysts did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment on the exact timing of when we might expect an equity offering. However, Wells Fargo predicts the strike will likely stretch on for most of October, which could hit Boeing for another $2 billion or so in cash.
In the short term, the announcement of an equity raise could lead to a dip in share price, which was slightly above $148 as of mid-day Thursday. Issuing new shares could dilute the value of Boeing’s existing shares, Morgan explains, making them less attractive to shareholders.
“Investors often react negatively to dilution, especially if they perceive it as a sign that the company is in financial trouble,” Morgan said.
Since the start of 2019, Boeing has lost more than $25 billion and burned through $4.3 billion in the second quarter of 2024 alone. Plus, Boeing confirmed to Fortune production of 737 jets came to a “complete halt” because of the strike.
“Airplane production in Washington state is temporarily paused including work on the 737 MAX, 767, 777/777X, P-8, KC-46A Tanker, E-7 Wedgetail,” a Boeing spokesperson told Fortune in a Sept. 25 statement. “Work at our Fabrication sites in Washington and Oregon will also temporarily pause. Employees not represented by this union will continue to report to work as normal.”
While Boeing’s current situation might look bleak right now, an equity offering could have a “more positive” long-term impact, Morgan said. It could “help stabilize the company’s operations, allowing it to continue production and meet its financial obligations.”
However, it’s important to remember Boeing’s current situation hurts more than the company’s bottom line and its own workers. Halting plane production and delaying negotiations with striking workers exerts pressure on airlines and suppliers as well.
“The Boeing strike will hurt significantly more than its customers, because pain flows upstream,” James Gellert, executive chairman of finance analytics company RapidRatings, told Fortune. “Boeing’s suppliers will be the unwitting recipients of the work stoppage, and this pain comes at a terrible time.”
