• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive

3

Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive

3

Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
FinanceEconomy

Top market strategist sees ‘nirvana’ after Fed rate cut, new economic data

Will Daniel
By
Will Daniel
Will Daniel
Down Arrow Button Icon
Will Daniel
By
Will Daniel
Will Daniel
Down Arrow Button Icon
September 19, 2024, 2:02 PM ET
A "We're Hiring" sign in Atlanta, Georgia, US, on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. Inflation rates fell under 2% in Atlanta for the first time in almost four years and dropped significantly across the South, providing some relief to consumers, and potential voters, in regions that will be key to the outcome of the US presidential election. Photographer: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images
A "We're Hiring" sign in Atlanta, Georgia, US, on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024.Photographer: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020 on Wednesday. Stocks balked at the move initially, with all three major U.S. market indices ending the day in the red after a volatile trading session. 

Recommended Video

While it’s important not to read too far into single-day stock market gyrations, there were a few key investor fears blamed for Wednesday’s wild ride. 

First, the Fed’s decision to opt for an outsized 50 basis point rate cut, instead of the more common 25 basis points, was seen by some as evidence that the central bank is “behind the curve”—meaning it should have cut rates months ago to stimulate the economy. 

Second, the Fed’s more modest projections for interest rate cuts through the end of 2025—which were well below investors’ expectations for ongoing, aggressive cuts—may have spooked some market participants who fear high rates are slowing the economy too quickly.

On Thursday, however, investors’ fears seemed to have been assuaged. With initial jobless claims falling to their lowest level since May, manufacturing surveys demonstrating more resilience in that sector than anticipated, and a key wage tracker rising, the economy is looking relatively robust. 

In fact, the Fed doesn’t look behind the curve at all, according to Eric Wallerstein, chief markets strategist at Yardeni Research.

“If the Fed and the market are extremely worried about unemployment because history rhymes or repeats…if that’s our main worry. And then we got data this morning showing, actually, the manufacturing sector is already improving on its own, unemployment data is the best since before the summer, and the Fed cut 50 basis points, you’re getting a kind of Nirvana, right?” he told Fortune. “The Fed is cutting into one of the stronger economies we’ve seen in years”

3 signs of a surprisingly resilient U.S. economy

Initial jobless claims

Investors have long feared that a sustained period of elevated interest rates will slow the economy, and eventually spark a string of layoffs. And for a time, they had some evidence to back their theory, with jobless claims steadily rising.

But this week was different. Initial jobless claims, one of the best measures of layoffs, came in at 219,000 for the week ending September 14. That’s the lowest level since May, and down from 231,000 the prior week. 

Meanwhile, unemployment rolls shrunk to levels last seen in early June. Insured unemployment, or the number of people actively receiving unemployment benefits, dropped 14,000 to 1,829,000 for the week ending September 7.

“The first economic data point since the ‘jumbo’ rate cut should please the Fed,” Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, told Fortune of the data via email. “Lower-than-expected jobless claims won’t raise any immediate concerns about the labor market slowing too much.”

Wallerstein echoed that view. “Initial weekly [jobless] claims and continuing [jobless] claims now are falling…people were worried the climb would continue. That’s not the case. There’s no slow down, recession evidence in the layoff data.”

Manufacturing surveys

The manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy has dealt with headaches for years, from COVID-era supply chain disruptions to rising labor costs. With the sector often seen as a gauge of the economy’s health, weak activity has led to some concerns about the durability of U.S. economic growth.

But, once again, those fears seem to have been tempered of late. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey—a gauge of activity in the manufacturing sector in Delaware, southern New Jersey and central and eastern Pennsylvania—turned positive, bucking its summer downtrend.

This comes after the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed business activity growth in that region for the first time in more than a year on Monday. Yardeni Research’s Wallerstein noted this “improving activity” in multiple manufacturing surveys is a good sign for any bearish investors that were concerned about economic weakness, or the Fed being behind the curve.

Wage growth

After falling consistently from a peak of 9.3% at the start of 2022 to just 3.1% in May of this year, wage growth may also finally be turning the corner. Indeed’s Wage Tracker shows posted wages rose 3.3% in August in what the company labeled a “broad-based” stabilization.

“In short, with posted wages growing at the same steady and sustainable pace we saw before the pandemic, the Indeed Wage Tracker is signaling the U.S. labor market may be settling into a groove,” Indeed economists Nick Bunker and Allison Shrivastava wrote of the data.

Yardeni’s Research’s Wallerstein argued, once again, this data is a good sign for economic growth, and certainly helps assuage investor fears about a deteriorating labor market. “Real wages are rising, beating inflation, and [consumers] are spending,” he said. 

Steady wage growth, manufacturing resilience and the lack of evidence of a layoff spike all give Wallerstein confidence that markets can continue their rise, with some intermittent volatility. “As long as the economy is growing stronger than expected, you don’t need to worry,” he said.

About the Author
Will Daniel
By Will Daniel
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Oil drops as U.S. says deal with Iran and Hormuz reopening is near
EnergyOil
Oil drops as U.S. says deal with Iran and Hormuz reopening is near
By Nicholas Lua and BloombergMay 24, 2026
8 hours ago
Russia’s economy is much worse than it seems, and ‘elites are increasingly alarmed’ as alternate GDP gauge shows huge contraction
EconomyRussia
Russia’s economy is much worse than it seems, and ‘elites are increasingly alarmed’ as alternate GDP gauge shows huge contraction
By Jason MaMay 24, 2026
8 hours ago
Alaska’s oil revival sparks a new energy rush Into the Arctic
EnergyOil
Alaska’s oil revival sparks a new energy rush Into the Arctic
By Jennifer A. Dlouhy and BloombergMay 24, 2026
10 hours ago
SpaceX stock is about to join this growing constellation of public companies building a space-based economy
Investingspace
SpaceX stock is about to join this growing constellation of public companies building a space-based economy
By Jason MaMay 24, 2026
11 hours ago
f
Energyfraud
Nonprofit fraud isn’t surging. Enforcement is
By Sarah Webber and The ConversationMay 24, 2026
15 hours ago
w
Personal FinanceWhite House
From Hobbes to the 14th amendment: the ancient and modern cases against Trump’s $1.8 billion fund
By Austin Sarat and The ConversationMay 24, 2026
15 hours ago

Most Popular

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
Success
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
By Preston ForeMay 21, 2026
4 days ago
Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
Lifestyle
Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
By Sasha RogelbergMay 24, 2026
19 hours ago
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
Success
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
By Emma BurleighMay 22, 2026
3 days ago
Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
Real Estate
Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
By Sydney LakeMay 24, 2026
20 hours ago
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
Workplace Culture
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
By Preston ForeMay 19, 2026
5 days ago
Apple’s Steve Wozniak says he cofounded the tech giant after 5 rejections from HP—not to ‘make money.’ For years, his paycheck was just $50
Success
Apple’s Steve Wozniak says he cofounded the tech giant after 5 rejections from HP—not to ‘make money.’ For years, his paycheck was just $50
By Preston ForeMay 22, 2026
3 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.