Many got the economy wrong in 2023—here’s an easy prediction for 2024

Count me among the many who got the economy wrong in 2023. I saw little reason in history to think inflation could be beat without a downturn, and I predicted the Fed Funds rate would end up over 6%.

But the “inflation is transitory” crowd turned out to be right—it took longer than they expected and a bit of nudging from the Fed, but inflation did come down and the economy stayed strong. I was closer to correct on Generative AI—it exploded onto the business scene unlike any technology preceding it.

So plenty of reason to be humble about predictions for 2024. But here are a few: The markets see sunny skies ahead, but I’m more skeptical. I wrote a year ago that we shouldn’t “be surprised if the (Fed’s) flood of free money led to some massively bad bets.” I still think that’s true—there are some naked swimmers out there yet to be discovered. (Keep an eye on office real estate.)

And while Generative AI clearly holds the potential to transform both business and society for the better, I think—or at least hope—we’ll spend more time in 2024 on its flaws, particularly the fondness for “hallucination.” A number of smart tech-watchers assured me a year ago this problem would be solved by now. It’s not. Others had the chutzpah to argue it was a feature, not a bug. But check out this recent story about a law brief filed in the Michael Cohen case. Facts matter, and our latest romance with technology that likes to make stuff up is a new reason to worry.

Finally, here’s an easy one: Politics and geopolitics will be big business stories. Wars are already raging in two important regions of the world, and contentious elections are scheduled this year covering more than 40% of the world’s population.

And the two are related, with immigration—much of it from people fleeing wars and failed regimes—remaining a top political issue. But here’s an interesting fact, courtesy of The Economist, to help you steer through the noise: The share of the world’s population that lives outside their country of birth is just 3.6% and has barely changed in the last 75 years.

More news below. And if you are still working on resolutions for the New Year, check out the latest in Fortune Well.

Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com

TOP NEWS

Copyright-free Mickey

Mickey Mouse—or, specifically, the version from Walt Disney’s 1928 cartoon “Steamboat Willie”—is now in the public domain. The Walt Disney Company’s copyright on the short cartoon expired on Jan. 1, 2024. Within minutes, a user had uploaded the entire cartoon to Wikipedia. Still, Disney maintains a strong grip on the beloved character: It has copyright on later versions of Mickey Mouse, and keeps its trademark. The Verge

BYD sells big

BYD, the Chinese EV giant, sold over 525,000 fully-electric cars in the fourth quarter of 2023. The company has now sold 1.6 million battery-powered vehicles over 2023, out of a total 3 million cars. That puts the company on track to overtake Elon Musk’s Tesla as the world’s largest manufacturer of fully-electric cars; the U.S. EV maker should report fourth-quarter deliveries on Tuesday. Bloomberg

Yunus on trial

A Bangladeshi court sentenced Muhammad Yunus, the economist who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for his work in microcredit, to six months in jail for alleged labor law violations. Yunus is a political rival to current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has called the economist a “bloodsucker.” Yunus and affiliated organizations face hundreds of cases in total, and supporters argue that the legal campaign is an effort to kneecap a potential rival to Hasina ahead of elections on Jan. 7. Financial Times

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

Hinge dating app made under $1 million in 2017. It’s projected to rake in $400 million this year: ‘We’re setting up a date every 2 seconds’ by Ruth Umoh

The rise of ‘little flex time’ and shorter work weeks: Trends that’ll reshape businesses in 2024, according to a massive study of nearly 2.7 million job searches and 30,000 workers by Orianna Rosa Royle

Chinese EV makers are planning factories in Mexico—and the U.S. is worried it’s a ‘back door’ to undercutting the Big 3 carmakers by Steve Mollman

The U.S. presidential race isn’t the only election next year. Here are four in Asia that could also reshape global politics by Lionel Lim

Frustration mounts as investors await returns on Gen Z metaverse sensation Roblox: ‘2024 is going to be a crucial year’ by Christiaan Hetzner

Fortune favors the books: Our editors’ favorite non-fiction of 2023 pulls back the curtain on a year of major transition by Nick Lichtenberg and Fortune Editors

This edition of CEO Daily was curated by Nicholas Gordon.