The oil and gas industry enjoyed a stellar summer in 2022, driven by tight supply linked to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, pushing prices to new heights. Despite soaring inflation and mass layoffs in other sectors, European powerhouses Shell and TotalEnergies emerged as clear winners, capitalizing on the favorable tailwinds.
But now those companies are facing a reckoning as oil and gas prices plummet.
The fossil fuel giants posted their profits on Thursday—both of which missed expectations.
For U.K.-based Shell, adjusted earnings for the April-to-June quarter was $5.1 billion—down 56% compared to the same time last year.
French oil company TotalEnergies wasn’t spared the horror, with earnings down 49% year over year.
“Shell delivered strong operational performance and cash flows in the second quarter, despite a lower commodity price environment,” the company’s CEO Wael Sawan said in a statement.
TotalEnergies CEO said the company’s earnings were strong given the “favorable but softening oil and gas environment.”
Why has changed for oil and gas companies?
European natural gas and Brent crude prices have dipped below pre-Ukraine war levels from February 2022, signaling potential disappointment for shareholders who may miss out on last year’s lucrative windfall.
European governments have imposed a windfall tax in an effort to ensure that oil companies don’t unfairly profit from a looming energy and cost-of-living crisis.
Weak demand from China has also kept oil prices depressed and countries globally are still reeling from sky-high prices and economic volatility.
Last month, the global consortium of oil-producing countries OPEC+ announced it would cut oil output by 1 million barrels, which limited supply and left room for further oil price changes in the months to follow.
“The primary thing would be just the fact that the commodity price itself is down year to date,” Cole Smead, CEO of investment firm Smead Capital Management, told Fortune.
“In the trailing quarter, the average oil price was lower than they [oil companies like Shell] dealt with a year ago, it’s lower than they started the year with.”
Despite the fall in oil prices, analysts are still keeping a close eye on trends influencing the oil and gas industry as supply continues to be tricky.
Last year, Shell’s then-CEO Ben van Beurden said he didn’t expect the energy crisis to quell in the near future.
“I do not think this crisis is going to be limited to just one winter,” he said. “It may well be that we have a number of winters where we have to somehow find solutions through efficiency savings, through rationing, and as a very, very quick buildout of alternatives.”
The EU region has averted an energy crisis so far after the supply of oil and gas was choked when Russia, the country that supplies most of Europe’s oil, invaded Ukraine.
But a relatively mild winter helped the region boost its energy inventories, leaving it in a much better position now compared to the same time last year.
“We expect prices to rise in the coming months due to a fundamental supply deficit,” Dr. Patricio Valdivieso, senior analyst at Rystad Energy, told Fortune. “Global demand has been surprisingly robust recently. Despite slow economic activity in China and Europe in the second quarter, the demand drop-off was less severe than expected.”
Update, 27 July, 2023: This article has been updated with additional analyst comments from Rystad Energy.
