Years ago, presiding over a trendy Tribeca brunch, Oscar-nominated actor Harvey Keitel gave my college friends and me a crash course in filmmaking. “Listen, man, even though we’re in the opening act of the 21st Century, there are just three things you need for a great movie or TV show–the script, the script, and the script!” exclaimed the Hollywood legend. Back then was a golden age of film and TV, but no one could imagine then that the very same content would be driving the biggest hits for streamers today. It’s done just that–and raised a difficult question: Why is old content outperforming original new content?
In 2022, streamers spent a whopping $23 billion on original new scripted content. Although more original content is being produced than ever before, few are watching it. According to Nielsen, 12 of the top 15 most watched titles on streaming platforms in 2022 were licensed content from years ago, including NCIS (2003), Cocomelon (2006), and The Simpsons (1989).
Moreover, 12 of the top 15 streaming movies were older theatrical releases from years past like Frozen (2013). Even the previous year’s overall chart saw 11 old licensed titles in the top 15 most streamed titles, including New Girl (2011), Criminal Minds (2005), and Grey’s Anatomy (2005).
While Warner Bros. Discovery’s newest content Shazam and Flash failed to ignite the Box Office, the studio’s older content is on a blazing blitzkrieg: Four of the top 15 most streamed titles are from the studio. The company’s highly respected president of content sales, David Decker, attributes that success to “an entirely new generation of fans have who discovered our deep library of loved movies and television shows. So, it makes sense shows from the past are still heavily consumed.”
Astonishingly, only three new original titles made it onto 2022’s top 15 most-watched streamers chart–and even those have ties to the past. Stranger Things borrows scenes and themes straight from the famous movies of the 1980s period it’s set in. Ozark stars 1980s teen heartthrob Jason Bateman and Wednesday is a spinoff of the decades-old Addams Family franchise.
Yet not all new spinoffs from franchises flourish. Disney’s Toy Story prequel Lightyear and the latest Ant-man stumbled at the box office, as did their new original Elemental. Despite heavy hype and a mammoth budget, the new Star Wars spinoff Mandalorian also failed to crack the Top 15 overall most streamed chart. Whereas the decade-old animated series Bluey that Disney acquired for their streamer landed at #8.
Streamers realize they can’t rely on old content forever, which is why last year saw a record-breaking 600 new original scripted series produced in the U.S. It’s a stratospheric number with equally staggering budgets. Disney+ alone spent $25 million per episode across eight different series versus the traditional average $3 million. Yet none made it onto 2022’s top streaming chart, creating a content paradox: bigger doesn’t mean better. And that’s not the only quandary of the new streaming age.
The dilemma of the writers’ strike
In May 2023, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) went on strike, bringing new productions to a screeching halt. While the writers’ demand for residual payments (as they received in the pre-streaming economics age) is more than justified, they’ve lost a ton of leverage.
Writers are facing new challenges, such as the prospect of artificial intelligence replacing them in the future–but the industry can make the point of poor scripts lacking substance and content from yesteryear being more popular with audiences than today’s content. Therein lies the dilemma: You can’t have hit content without great writers–but today’s writers aren’t generating hit content.
When asked why new content’s gold rush hasn’t spurred more mega-hits, a major talent agent points the finger at Silicon Valley. He accuses them of sacrificing quality in a race to build a large catalog to rival Hollywood’s 100-year head start in movies and TV.
Further, the agent faults the tech titans’ data-driven approach to creating content. “Tech bros think it will give them a Star Wars-like hit; and of course when it bombs, they throw money at it because they can. They’re trillion-dollar companies where content is a side hustle and subscriptions are king.”
One prime example is Amazon’s $1 billion “Rings of Power,” the most expensive TV series in history. Critics call it poorly written. It was such a highly criticized flop that Amazon turned off its customer comment reviews. It also had a dismal 37% completion rate, well below the 50% threshold most streamers require for renewals. Even then, the show got renewed, there was no fallout at Amazon Studios, and the show’s creators made millions.
Silicon Valley can’t take all the bad rap for original new content’s existential crisis. Traditionalists blame Intellectual Property (Transformers, Avengers, Barbie, Super Mario) for dethroning creatives. Writer-director Quentin Tarantino criticized “Hollywood’s modern era as one of the worst in the history of filmmaking.” Filmmaker Ridley Scott expressed contempt for the explosion of superhero movies. And Director Martin Scorsese described it as “not real cinema.”
Whether the onus lies with Hollywood, Silicon Valley or the writers themselves, other factors may impact original content’s reception, whether it’s the lack of diversity that led to #OscarsStillSoWhite or the rise of anti-wokeness that triggered DeSantis’ war on Disney.
Then there’s the rise of bland content coined “peak redundancy,” artsy niche content known as “prestige TV, and too much content termed “peak TV.”
Whoever’s the real culprit behind original new content's near collapse, you can bet Harvey Keitel knows the ultimate cause. Before the end of that Tribeca brunch, he left us with the parting words, “Writers are the lifeblood of content–never forget that.”
Aden Ikram is a content licensing executive who is cheering for streamers' original new content to be hits. He also misses his New York college days of impromptu brunches with Harvey Keitel.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.
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