• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

Now worth $200 million, Sarah Jessica Parker credits being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ for her hunger, ambition, and work ethic

3

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

Now worth $200 million, Sarah Jessica Parker credits being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ for her hunger, ambition, and work ethic

3

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
FinanceRecession

Janet Yellen said she doesn’t see signs of a recession, but Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman argues the worst is yet to come

Will Daniel
By
Will Daniel
Will Daniel
Down Arrow Button Icon
Will Daniel
By
Will Daniel
Will Daniel
Down Arrow Button Icon
October 28, 2022, 2:38 PM ET
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies before the House Finance Committee in 2015 during her time as the Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies before the House Finance Committee in 2015 during her time as chair of the Federal Reserve.Chip Somodevilla—Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen believes that the economy isn’t in a recession, and the latest gross domestic product numbers prove it.

U.S. GDP grew 2.6% in the third quarter, marking a turnaround after two consecutive quarters of contraction to start the year.

“What we’re seeing right now is solid growth this quarter,” Yellen told CNN. “We have a very strong labor market. I don’t see signs of a recession in this economy at this point.”

But while Yellen believes that the latest GDP numbers are evidence of strength, and a sign that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to reduce inflation are not significantly hurting the economy, other top economists argue that the figures are misleading and complain that the Fed may be overdoing it with interest rate hikes.

“The U.S. economy has continued to weaken, but once again, the top-line GDP number is hiding some of this weakness,” Raymond James chief economist, Eugenio Alemán, told Fortune, pointing to the fact that GDP was boosted by 2.8 percentage points owing to the shrinking trade deficit last quarter.

Comerica Bank’s chief economist, Bill Adams, explained that “a smaller trade deficit adds to GDP because it means more American spending is on goods and services produced here versus in other countries.”

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman also argued on Thursday that while the U.S. may not currently be in a recession, there is evidence that the economy will shrink from here.

“While this report made all the people who screamed ‘recession!’ look as foolish and partisan as they were, it was not, if you look under the hood, a sign that the worst is over,” he wrote on Twitter. “It suggests, at least to me, that there’s a lot of contraction still in the pipeline.”

In a separate tweet, Krugman, like Alemán, argued that the shrinking trade deficit was the main driver of the positive GDP figure, and that the strong dollar should reduce the benefit of the trade deficit in coming quarters as U.S. producers become less competitive on the global stage.

While the dollar has been outperforming most currencies throughout the year, Krugman noted that there are “long lags in the effects of exchange rates on trade,” which means that the trade deficit will likely be a “significant drag going forward.”

Krugman added that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes also mean that the housing market will continue to slow, which should reduce GDP.

“Mortgage applications are down 70%, so a large housing slump is already baked in. If it hasn’t shown up yet, just wait,” he wrote.

Yellen, on the other hand, argued that the U.S. economy is still in a strong position, with unemployment at a 50-year low of just 3.5%, and consumer spending proving to be resilient. 

Despite inflation and poor earnings from retailers like Amazon, consumer spending increased 0.6% in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Yellen also noted that U.S. households are in a strong position compared with their European peers, and that U.S. banks are “well capitalized,” which means they’re better prepared to cope with an economic slowdown.

“If you look around the world, there are a lot of economies that are really suffering, not only from high inflation but very weak economic performance, and the United States stands out,” she said.

Yellen went on to stand by the policies of the Biden administration, arguing that they helped enable the impressive recovery of the labor market post-COVID compared with other developed economies.

“There were several problems that we could have had, and difficulties many American families could have faced,” she said. “These are problems we don’t have, because of what the Biden administration has done. So, often one doesn’t get credit for problems that don’t exist.”

Still, Yellen has previously admitted that the Federal Reserve will need both “great skill” and “good luck” to defeat inflation without sparking a recession.

Sign up for the Fortune Features email list so you don’t miss our biggest features, exclusive interviews, and investigations.

About the Author
Will Daniel
By Will Daniel
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

The 30-year fixed mortgage was supposed to be predictable. Two costs quietly broke that promise
Real EstateHousing
The 30-year fixed mortgage was supposed to be predictable. Two costs quietly broke that promise
By Sydney LakeJune 27, 2026
4 hours ago
Big Short legend Steve Eisman says everyone is buying the wrong AI stocks
InvestingFinance
Big Short legend Steve Eisman says everyone is buying the wrong AI stocks
By Shawn TullyJune 27, 2026
7 hours ago
Illustration of a bomb with the Bitcoin logo printed on it, against an orange background.
CryptoCryptocurrency
Bitcoin down 20% since May as Strategy fallout spooks investors
By Camila Grigera NaónJune 26, 2026
21 hours ago
One chart explains the economy’s terrible baby boomer hangover, Gen X’s invisibility, and millennial and Gen Z irrelevance
Economybaby boomers
One chart explains the economy’s terrible baby boomer hangover, Gen X’s invisibility, and millennial and Gen Z irrelevance
By Tristan BoveJune 26, 2026
22 hours ago
AI boom may be on its last legs amid stock volatility and dash for cash—but will go out in a blaze of glory with ‘blow-off phase’ before bubble pops
AItech stocks
AI boom may be on its last legs amid stock volatility and dash for cash—but will go out in a blaze of glory with ‘blow-off phase’ before bubble pops
By Jason MaJune 26, 2026
23 hours ago
m
PoliticsNew York City
Mamdani lives up to campaign promise, freezing rent for about 1 million New Yorkers
By Anthony Izaguirre and The Associated PressJune 26, 2026
23 hours ago

Most Popular

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
2 days ago
Now worth $200 million, Sarah Jessica Parker credits being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ for her hunger, ambition, and work ethic
Success
Now worth $200 million, Sarah Jessica Parker credits being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ for her hunger, ambition, and work ethic
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 24, 2026
3 days ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
4 hours ago
Current price of oil as of June 26, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 26, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 26, 2026
1 day ago
Ray Dalio says the U.S. just had its 'Suez moment'—and history says what comes next could end an empire
Economy
Ray Dalio says the U.S. just had its 'Suez moment'—and history says what comes next could end an empire
By Nick LichtenbergJune 26, 2026
1 day ago
The bond market knows something about the $39 trillion national debt that Washington doesn’t
Economy
The bond market knows something about the $39 trillion national debt that Washington doesn’t
By Eva RoytburgJune 25, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.