Bitcoin more likely to hit $10,000 than $30,000 in near term, trading firm partner says

This comes after the price of Bitcoin fell sharply to near $19,000 on Wednesday as news hit the market that U.S. inflation hit its highest rate in 41 years last month. That night, battered cryptocurrency lender Celsius Network also filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. 

Despite the chaos, Bitcoin regained the $20,000 level on Thursday, and is currently trading at around $20,274, according to CoinGecko. 

Nonetheless, “it’s easier to fathom Bitcoin hitting $10,000 than $30,000,” Michael Safai, Dexterity Capital founder and managing partner, tells Fortune, adding the qualification that “a lot of that will be dictated by the broader macroeconomic situation.”

Meanwhile, 60% of the 950 people who responded to the latest MLIV Pulse survey likewise said Bitcoin is more likely to fall to $10,000 than jump back to $30,000. 

Safai adds that the higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and concern over a future rate hike “creates further short-term weakness for Bitcoin, given the prospects of a recession; the impact that will have on stocks, which Bitcoin continues to track; and a relative absence of good news for crypto.” 

“Crypto may not care as much about the Fed, but the stock market does, and where equities go, Bitcoin follows,” Safai said. 

Other experts in the space agree. 

Daniel Keller, cofounder of blockchain network protocol Flux, predicts a “deeper pullback” for the wider cryptocurrency market ahead. “High CPI and increased inflation pressure will not reassure anyone exposed to these markets. Bitcoin has shown some resilience; however, the alt market has seen massive selloffs when the traditional markets react,” he tells Fortune.

Ryan Shea, crypto economist at trading platform Trakx, sounded a similar note, telling Fortune, “It is too soon to sound the all-clear on the crypto winter…the bar to Fed capitulation is much higher than financial markets have become accustomed to.”