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These five markets are poised to see home prices fall in 2022

December 7, 2021, 3:59 PM UTC

Home prices in October showed the biggest 12-month gain in 45 years, but for some cities, the end is nigh.

The latest CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) shows the housing market was still in the midst of explosive growth as fall rolled in, posting an 18% increase over October 2020 figures, the biggest jump since the index began in 1976.

On a month-over-month basis, the increase was a bit less impressive, showing a 1.3% gain since September. And October could be the last month of substantial gains. CoreLogic notes monthly price growth has slowed from its April peak and predicts the month-over-month increase in November will be just 0.2%.

Even in October, not every state saw stratospheric price increases. New York, Louisiana, Alaska, and North Dakota were all notably below the national average. Some states, though, exceeded it by a wide pace.

Here’s a look at the states with the highest year-over-year change in the CoreLogic Home Price Index:

  1. Arizona – Up 28.9%
  2. Idaho – Up 28.7%
  3. Utah – Up 24.5 %
  4. Florida – Up 24.4%
  5. Nevada – Up 24.2%

Not surprisingly, the major cities in many of those states saw big increases as well. Phoenix home prices were up an average of 30.5%, for instance, and Las Vegas prices jumped 24%.

The salad days could be just about over for other cities, though. CoreLogic’s Market Risk Indicator, also released Tuesday, points to three cities that are at high risk (50% to 75%) of a price decline over the next 12 months—and two with moderate (25% to 50%) chances:

Worcester, Mass.–Conn. – High Risk

Springfield, Mass. – High Risk

Modesto, Calif. – High Risk

Merced, Calif. – Moderate Risk

Kalamazoo–Portage, Mich. – Moderate Risk

Houston didn’t make the top five, but researchers at CoreLogic say prices in that city, too, are likely to drop in the next year:

“The HPI Forecast also reveals the continued disparity in home price growth across metros,” the report read. “In markets like Houston, which was hit hard by the collapse of the oil industry and the recent hurricane season, home prices are expected to decline 1.2% by October 2022.”

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