In 2007, a New York Times story about climate change featured an interview with John Holdren, Barack Obama’s senior science adviser. What he said has become famous in climate circles: “We basically have three choices: mitigation, adaptation, and suffering. We’re going to do some of each. The question is what the mix is going to be.”
Mitigation means trying to stop climate change. You know: Phase out fossil fuels. Fly less. Eat less beef. By now, we’ve heard this kind of advice thousands of times.
To be sure, it’s absolutely correct. We’re now getting hit by four times as many weather disasters each year as we did in the ’80s, and 2020 brought us the most hurricanes, the biggest wildfires, and the highest temperature ever measured. We should all be mitigating climate change as though our lives depend on it—and our descendants’.
What we don’t hear often, though, is how slowly Nature will respond to our efforts. President Biden has committed to taking aggressive action in the fight against climate change in his first 100 days, with the ultimate goal of putting the country on the path to achieving “economy-wide net-zero emissions no later than 2050.” It’s an ambitious and worthwhile plan to be sure, but it will take time to see the results. Even if we stopped burning fossil fuels tomorrow, the land ice would not suddenly stop melting, the seas would not immediately stop rising, and weather systems would not promptly stop going crazy.
That’s because 93% of our planet’s new, improved heat has gone into the oceans, which take many decades to heat up or cool down. The planet’s climate will take at least a lifetime to reset.
It’s therefore time to start paying more attention to the second piece of the Holdren Formula: adaptation. Adaptation means accepting that climate chaos is here to stay, and taking steps to cope with it.
Big corporations, governments, and industries are already deeply invested in adaptation efforts: moving farmland to cooler regions, developing heat- and drought-tolerant crops, buying out homeowners in flood-prone areas. Cities like London, Tokyo, Rotterdam, Venice, and Jakarta have built some of the biggest public-works projects ever constructed, on a science-fictionish scale; enormous seawalls, colossal retractable barriers, and immense tunnel systems intended to protect their coasts from rising sea levels. (New York City is working up similar plans.)
But what about puny, noninstitutional entities like you? Have you done anything to make yourself and your family more resilient?
One reason to consider taking some personal preparation steps is obvious: You’ll be better protected physically and financially when weather disasters strike. (And yes, it could happen to you. These days, about 25 million Americans a year are affected by what meteorologists delicately call “extreme-weather events.”)
But there’s a mental payoff, too. Psychologists have long known that in any situation where you feel depressed and helpless, taking action is one of the few reliable antidotes. Preparing for something that’s unknown and frightening gives you a sense that you have some control over your situation. You feel better immediately.
So how do you prepare for climate change? For starters, fix your insurance. Half of all Americans live in coastal counties, but only 18% of flood-zone residents have flood insurance. (It comes as a surprise to many Americans, too, that homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage. Flood insurance is a separate purchase, provided, in the U.S., almost exclusively by FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program.)
Hurricanes, wildfires, superstorms, flooding, wildfires, tornadoes, and water shortages may seem like very different expressions of climate chaos, but they tend to affect us in similar, predictable ways: The power goes out, the local water supply gets contaminated, store shelves are empty of essentials.
Another readiness step, therefore, involves preparing to ride out those situations. Look into a generator, even a small one. Dedicate a shelf to nonperishable groceries that can tide you over. Either stock up on bottled water—the FDA says it remains drinkable indefinitely before opening—or familiarize yourself with the drinkable emergency water that’s already in your home. You’ve got 50 to 100 gallons in your hot-water heater, in your pipes, and in your toilets. (Collect the water from the toilet tank. Don’t drink from the bowl unless you’re a cocker spaniel.)
During recent hurricanes and fires, our cell towers have lost power, too. Now you’ve got no cell service for coordinating with your family. The simple solution: Designate meeting spots in advance. Paste the plan into the Notes app on every family member’s phone; it won’t do any good if everybody’s forgotten what’s in it when disaster strikes.
The ultimate preparation for climate chaos, of course, is moving away from it. True, very few people move exclusively to escape the effects of climate change (yet), and, of course, not everyone can afford to move.
But 40 million Americans do relocate every year. If you find yourself among them, and weather disasters are a consideration, here’s the guidance: You want to be far enough West to escape sea-level rise, superstorms, and exploding mosquito and tick populations; far enough North to avoid hurricanes and blistering heat; and far enough East to avoid wildfires and smoke. You also want to be somewhere that isn’t already experiencing historic water shortages.
The sweet spot is the Great Lakes region: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Not only are they well away from rising seas, blistering heat, devastating fires, and water shortages, but they’ve got vast, reliable sources of fresh water. Midwestern cities also have infrastructure you’ll care about in the coming years, like a relatively low cost of living, room to grow, and good hospitals.
Even if you decide to stay where you are, though, it doesn’t take much time or cost much money to take some of the smaller steps. Set aside a Saturday. Involve your kids—make it a scavenger hunt. They, too, will reap the mental health benefits of feeling more in charge.
If you need motivation, consider the drought rates, the number of wildfires, the intensity of rainstorms, and the number of “hundred-year” superstorms in the past couple of years. You can safely assume that things won’t be getting any better than they are right now.
Above all, remember the Holdren Formula: mitigation + adaptation now = less suffering later.
David Pogue is a science and tech correspondent for CBS Sunday Morning and the author of How to Prepare for Climate Change (Simon & Schuster).