Will the Super Bowl and parties lead to a spike in coronavirus infections?

According to a pair of surveys, at least 14% of American adults plan to attend a Super Bowl viewing party or other event outside the home this Sunday. That could mean as many as 50 million people not just mingling in the midst of a pandemic, but imbibing, cheering, and snacking, mostly indoors. Experts warn that cocktail of behaviors could lead to a nationwide spike in COVID-19 infections, reversing recent weeks of declining spread.

The Super Bowl itself is a less risky proposition than you might guess. The NFL, which even in normal times makes less money from ticket sales than from television deals and sponsorships, has restricted attendance to 25,000 fans, including 7,500 vaccinated health workers who were given free tickets. That’s down from over 62,000 attendees last year.

The league says there will be significant spacing between attendees, and the game venue, Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium, is open air, which may further reduce COVID transmission risk. Tailgating at the game has been severely restricted for well over a decade, and that won’t change for most attendees, though a special “TikTok Tailgate” pregame event will be held just for those vaccinated health care workers. Overall, experts speaking to CNBC said the NFL’s precautions for the event seem strong, though concerns remained about fans mingling outside their seats.

The much larger worry, then, is the tens of millions of Americans who will watch the game at bars or other gatherings.

“Attending a Super Bowl party, where you’re indoors with a group of people other than your household members for an extended period of time and perhaps unmasked for much of it, is just a risky proposition all around,” says Josh Michaud, a health analyst with the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Many football fans are turning a blind eye to that risk. In one survey conducted by Seton Hall University, 58% of respondents said they planned to watch the Super Bowl, and 25% of those planned to attend a viewing event outside their home. A larger survey by the National Retail Federation found that 186.6 million Americans plan to view the game, and 28% of those, or more than 50 million, intend to watch the game at a bar or party. Those numbers are down substantially from last year, when the NRF survey found that 46% of Super Bowl viewers planned to either throw or attend a party.

We only need to look back a few weeks for a reminder of what will come next.

Health authorities and pandemic experts warned last fall that holiday travel and family gatherings would likely fuel a spike in infections, and those warnings proved devastatingly correct. From around 50,000 new U.S. cases per day in the summer, infections had already begun climbing in November. But experts say holiday gatherings in December helped supercharge the pandemic: By mid- January, infection rates had sextupled to a staggering 300,000 new cases per day. Higher death rates followed, rising from less than 1,000 per day for much of September to more than 4,000 per day for several days in January.

One change since mid-December is that vaccination programs have now been underway for a little over six weeks. About 8% of the total U.S. population have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine. But those shots have been concentrated among those 65 and older, and, according to Michaud, “that age group is not necessarily responsible for the bulk of transmission across the country. We’ve only vaccinated a small fraction of the 20 to 49 age group, [which] drives much of the transmission.”

Michaud believes that a decline in gatherings, rather than vaccinations, has been responsible for the current decline in new infections, which have dropped to roughly 130,000 per day. That drop started in the second week of January, almost exactly two weeks after Christmas. That’s roughly how long it takes for symptoms to appear in those newly infected with the virus, pointing squarely at Christmas gatherings as the culprit for the January spike.

Krys Johnson, an epidemiologist at Temple University, says events like the Super Bowl could reverse recent improvements. Dr. Anthony Fauci has urged fans to watch the game at home instead of gathering. CDC director Rochelle Walensky has advised fans to gather “virtually or with people you live with.”

For those willing to risk death for a party, the CDC has issued Super Bowl event guidelines that range from aspirational to absurd. The more reasonable tips include wearing masks and not using restrooms during high-traffic times such as halftime. Advice like “limit alcohol consumption” and “avoid chanting and cheering,” on the other hand, border on the fanciful.

Tampa Bay and central Florida are at particular risk for a spike in cases. Though game attendance itself will be restricted, there will still be a slew of watch parties and dozens of Super Bowl–adjacent concerts featuring the likes of Rick Ross and Migos. Florida already ranks among the top 15 states in COVID infection rates, at 43 cases per 100,000 people.

As for the game itself, the Kansas City Chiefs are 3-point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A Bucs loss would be a particular disappointment for Tampa Bay fans since this is both the team’s second-ever championship appearance and the first time a team will play for the championship in its home stadium.

But if an L keeps the postgame partying to a minimum, it might still be a win for Tampa.