In a note to investors on Monday, RBC analyst Joseph Spak said that he now expects Tesla to ship 261,000 Model 3 cars this year, down from his previous estimate of 268,000, according to CNBC, which obtained a copy of the note. Spak added, however, that RBC will maintain its 2020 Model 3 shipment expectation of 347,500 units.

Tesla’s Model 3 is widely considered one of the more important cars the company sells. Significantly cheaper than the Model S and other higher-end Tesla cars, the Model 3 aims at bringing Tesla to the masses. That alone has prompted analysts and industry watchers to keep a close eye on how many units the company is shipping.

For its part, Tesla has maintained that Model 3 shipments are strong. The company also unveiled a crossover sport utility vehicle (SUV) earlier this month, called the Model Y, that will also target a budget-friendly price point.

In the note to investors, Spak said that Tesla dealt with a “customs issue” in China in the first quarter that might have hurt its shipment numbers. He also downgraded his Model 3 shipment forecast for the first quarter from 57,000 units shipped worldwide to 52,500 units.

Ultimately, Spak cut his 12-month price target on Tesla shares from $245 to $210. Tesla shares closed on Friday at $264.53.