Outlooks for next year from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Barclays Plc (BCS) predict global growth will reach 4%, with G7 economies expected to beat projections for the first time since 2010. One economist deemed that optimistic forecast “as good as it gets.”
A global growth rate of 4% next year would be the strongest since 2011, and an increase from the 3.7% Goldman Sachs estimated for this year, reports Bloomberg. Most major economies are even running ahead of pre-financial crisis averages, said economist Jan Hatzius in Goldman’s November Economic Outlook report. The Goldman report says the projected GDP growth for next year is “notably above consensus expectations and supported by still-easy financial conditions and fiscal policy.”
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In a separate November report, Barclays economists Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Michael Gavin wrote that “the ongoing economic expansion has substantial momentum.’’
“It is not overly reliant on any single geographical region, industry, or source of demand,” they said. “It does not seem to have generated economic or financial excesses that pose an immediate threat.’’
Taking a more moderate view, Morgan Stanley’s (MS) 2018 Global Macro Outlook report predicts the year ahead will be one of global recovery, supported by unmoving “accommodative monetary policy and more fiscal stimulus.”
Morgan Stanley’s report forecasts steady growth in developed markets that will be eclipsed by emerging markets; inflation rates in the latter markets will match those in emerging economies, led by Asia. Monetary policy is set to remain expansionary in 2018, Morgan Stanley says, as is fiscal policy in several key developed market economies, including the U.S. Risks related to estimating the shortfall of faster inflation, tightening finances owing to rich asset valuations, and a disruption in global trade which could lead to protectionism.
Despite growth, few economists anticipate any surges in inflation, with most forecasting a gradual acceleration that central bankers should welcome.