Anyone following the tech industry knows that cloud computing is already a huge business. But it’s still just in its infancy compared to what it will be over the next few years, according to Jefferies & Co. stock pickers.
Amazon Web Services, for example, will hit $55 billion in revenue by 2022, according to Jefferies’ top-ten predictions for the Internet sector.
That would be an almost 244% increase from the $16 billion in revenue AWS is expected to bring in this year. Jefferies also thinks parent company Amazon (AMZN) will close in on $1 trillion in market cap by that time, up from about $458 billion now.
But Amazon doesn’t get all the glory. Jefferies expects Google (GOOG), the third-largest cloud provider after AWS and Microsoft, will have a breakout year in 2018. Google just announced that marketing software company Marketo will move its tech infrastructure to Google cloud from its own data centers. That is a much-needed validation that Google is in the game for mainstream business applications where AWS and Microsoft are already strong.
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The Jefferies predictions, disclosed late Thursday, also acknowledge the hype around artificial intelligence (AI) with too many companies making too many claims. The firm expects that the big winners will be the small handful of players that have the most and best data sets. And those companies would be—no surprise here—Amazon, Google and Facebook (FB), according to the Jefferies’ stock pickers.
But, the number one prediction from this group is that as fast growing as Amazon and Google are, Facebook—which is adding business-focused services to its massive social network—will outperform both of them over the next year. Facebook, which claims 2 billion users worldwide—or about 25% of the world’s population—will expand that reach to 40% by 2022, according to Jefferies.
Now we just have to remember to check back in five years to see how it all turns out.