• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer

2

Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back

3

Current price of oil as of June 11, 2026

1

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer

2

Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back

3

Current price of oil as of June 11, 2026
HealthBrainstorm Health

An Iceberg, a Terrible Disease, and a Chance to Act

By
Clifton Leaf
Clifton Leaf
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Clifton Leaf
Clifton Leaf
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 29, 2017, 1:02 PM ET

Reports, from a group of British scientists yesterday, that an iceberg the size of Delaware was just “hours, days, or weeks” away from separating from the ice continent of Antarctica were met with alarm by untold millions of people, no doubt.

The news was a sobering new data point supporting the long-accepted thesis that a rapidly changing climate is transforming the face of the earth.

But it was also a reminder of something else: We know what we know about the world, in large part, because we measure it. And in many, many cases—such as with ocean temperatures, rising sea levels, or ice shelf traveling speeds—scientists have recorded the data for decades, systematically, consistently, and with precision. Those facts make our understanding ever more certain.

“The soon-to-be-iceberg part of Larsen C Ice Shelf,” reported Martin O’Leary and Adrian Luckman of Project MIDAS, had “tripled in speed to more than ten meters per day between 24th and 27th June 2017”—tearing from the seam of the ice like the knee stitching of a 10-year-old pair of Levi’s.

As stark as the latest data are, however, similar data predicted as much in 2006, when Stan Jacobs of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, chronicled the “state of disequilibrium” in the Southern Ocean. By then, and in just the previous few decades, northern sections of the Larsen Ice Shelf had “retreated significantly,” said Jacobs. The change, he concluded, was “attributed largely to atmospheric warming and melt pond penetration of cracks in the ice.”

No surprise, the data showed the same phenomenon in 2003, when Ted A. Scambos, at the University of Colorado at Boulder and colleagues, detailed—with satellite photographs, maps, and endless troves of oceanographic readings—the deterioration of the northern Larsen Ice Shelf going back to 1902.

The takeaway from this is that the latest calving of a continent is both shocking and not shocking; the latter, because—hell, we KNEW it was coming. That is the beauty of measuring. Of simple counting, as I wrote in my book The Truth in Small Doses.

And that takes me to Frederick Ludwig Hoffman, a great practitioner of counting who few people have ever heard of today—but who ought to be well remembered. Sometime in the years before 1913, Hoffman, the in–house statistician for the Prudential Insurance Company of America, began noticing something odd. “Prudential’s methodical actuary,” as I wrote in Truth, “had gone through his company’s own life insurance payouts for the previous year and had discovered that two words kept recurring in the ledgers: malignant neoplasm.”

It went against all expectations, against all of the assumptions of previous underwriting. But there were the hard numbers. One in every twelve deaths in male policyholders 45 and older was the result of cancer; for women of that age, the share was nearly one in six. “That made cancer, in Prudential’s experience, the leading cause of death for middle-aged and older women and the third-leading cause for men.”

The death tolls had risen sharply and irrevocably over the decades, as Hoffman could see from his own company’s data, even if few public officials had seemed to notice, let alone be alarmed by, the trend. But the actuary wasn’t content to just look at his own firm’s records. Over the next several years, Hoffman—who would go on to form the American Cancer Society and whose work would help inspire the creation of the National Cancer Institute in 1937—sifted through data from more than two dozen other American insurers, as well as dozens of additional life insurance companies and medical societies outside the U.S. “He canvassed officials in state after state, city after city, in twenty-four countries, compiling records from Tasmania, Australia, to Lima, Peru.”

By 1913, when he began to publicly report his conclusions, he predicted: “If the present rate of increase continues unchecked, the annual cancer mortality in the continental United States will soon exceed 100,000!”

Hoffman, it turns out, had underestimated the toll by a factor of six. The latest official estimate is that 600,920 Americans will die of cancer in 2017. It is, in short, a giant iceberg of disease that keeps getting bigger.

And that, at long last, brings me to a truly important editorial written by several members of the board of directors of the new Biden Cancer Initiative—which we ran on Fortune.com this morning. I hope you’ll all read it. (Subtly adding link here again.)

As the authors—David Agus, Elizabeth Jaffee, Greg Simon, Kim Thiboldeaux, and Jeff Zients—rightly contend, there are still (almost unimaginably) significant “lacks” that substantially limit our progress in the long war on cancer. Among them: “a lack of data standards in treating cancer, lack of data sharing in the research and development enterprise, lack of patient input and participation in clinical trials,” and more.

It is time to tackle these issues—and a host of other cultural barriers to progress—head on, and I have faith in the mission of the Biden Cancer Initiative to do that. I applaud any effort to bring a sense of urgency to the war on cancer. This one, I think, has a real chance of succeeding.

Indeed, I’m counting on it.

This essay appears in today’s edition of the Fortune Brainstorm Health Daily. Get it delivered straight to your inbox.

About the Author
By Clifton Leaf
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Health

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Health

A person holds an iPhone as someone next to them points at the screen.
EconomyApple iPhone
You can blame America’s plummeting fertility rate on the iPhone, study finds: ‘People are all depressed and alone and doomscrolling’
By Sasha RogelbergJune 12, 2026
4 hours ago
fda
HealthTobacco
Why is the FDA approving kid-friendly, fruit-flavored e-cigarettes?
By Matthew Perrone and The Associated PressJune 12, 2026
5 hours ago
Testosil Review (2026): Testosterone Supplement Reviewed
HealthDietary Supplements
Testosil Review (2026): Testosterone Supplement Reviewed
By Christina SnyderJune 11, 2026
16 hours ago
BrickHouse Nutrition Field of Greens Review (2026)
HealthDietary Supplements
BrickHouse Nutrition Field of Greens Review (2026)
By Emily PharesJune 11, 2026
16 hours ago
worm
HealthFood and drink
The pest that could devastate the American cattle industry was in Texas, but now it’s in New Mexico, too
By Jeffrey Collins and The Associated PressJune 9, 2026
3 days ago
A man put a drink in front of Trump
HealthFood and drink
A Biden-era study told Americans to drink less alcohol. The Trump admin ‘sidelined’ the research facing pressure from the alcohol lobby
By Laura Ungar, Ali Swenson and The Associated PressJune 9, 2026
3 days ago

Most Popular

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
Energy
Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
By Sasha RogelbergJune 10, 2026
2 days ago
Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back
Environment
Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back
By Catherina GioinoJune 9, 2026
3 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 11, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 11, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 11, 2026
22 hours ago
Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45
Innovation
Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45
By Amanda GerutJune 9, 2026
2 days ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
4 days ago
SpaceX's record IPO has Wall Street torn between a Musk 'holy grail' and a $135-per-share leap of faith
Startups & Venture
SpaceX's record IPO has Wall Street torn between a Musk 'holy grail' and a $135-per-share leap of faith
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJune 11, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.