• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Why did a $154 billion CEO just endorse stripping most Americans of voting rights—and taking us back to the 19th century?

2

eBay will pay nearly $50 million after employees reportedly sent a Massachusetts couple a bloody pig mask, cockroaches and death threats

3

Current price of oil as of July 28, 2026

1

Why did a $154 billion CEO just endorse stripping most Americans of voting rights—and taking us back to the 19th century?

2

eBay will pay nearly $50 million after employees reportedly sent a Massachusetts couple a bloody pig mask, cockroaches and death threats

3

Current price of oil as of July 28, 2026
Finance

Don’t Be Fooled. The March Jobs Report Was Better Than It Looked

By
Geoffrey Smith
Geoffrey Smith
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Geoffrey Smith
Geoffrey Smith
Down Arrow Button Icon
April 7, 2017, 11:24 AM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Don’t be fooled by the bad headline number: the March jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was pretty good—but only pretty good.

The dollar and the headline number of non-farm jobs added—a mere 98,000—was shockingly low, but that owed much to weather-related issues that say nothing about the underlying trend. Once you look through that, you see an economy that is still ticking along, but struggling to step up a gear despite the best efforts of the new administration to chivvy it along.

The 98,000 gain in jobs was barely half the 180,000 Wall Street analysts had forecast, which is why the stock market and the dollar fell in response. But both quickly turned round as investors got to the underlying data: The average monthly gain in employment over the last three months is still 178,000, which is a decent achievement given that unemployment is already back at its lowest level in nearly 10 years.

In January and February, unseasonably warm weather had led to more people finding construction jobs than usual, gains that were effectively moved up from the spring months. To make matters worse, the BLS survey was actually carried out in the week that a major snowstorm hit the northeast, which obviously depressed hiring in that week. The snowstorm also had an impact on the average number of hours worked, which was the only other disappointing element of the report.

The figures that better reflect the trend look more impressive: The number of jobless fell by 326,000 to 7.202 million, taking the unemployment rate down to to 4.5% of the working population. For both numbers, that’s their lowest since late 2007. Just as importantly, the BLS’s “U6” rate that includes under-employed people also fell – to 8.9% of the population from 9.2%. Although the overall labor force participation rate was steady, the number of “discouraged workers” – i.e., those who don’t believe there are jobs out there for them – is down by over 20% in the last year. That’s all clearly good news.

All in all, said, ADM ISI analyst Marc Ostwald, “April payrolls should rebound smartly.”

So, by most measures, the labor market continues to “tighten.” But you wouldn’t guess it from looking at the earnings component of the report. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.2% on the month, as expected, and unchanged from February, and were up 2.7% on the year. Right now, that isn’t even keeping up with inflation, which hit 2.8% last month (mainly because March 2016 was the month that oil and gas prices bottomed out).

Manufacturing jobs, which tend to be higher-paying than service-sector ones, rose 11,000, but retail jobs fell by nearly 30,000, testimony to the problems of stores across the country that are being laid waste by e-commerce. The other sector to stand out is financial services, where employment hit a new all-time high of 8.409 million (they passed their pre-crisis high in February). That, combined with another 46,000 rise in professional and business services (also a generally higher-paying sector), suggests that average wages should actually have risen a bit more than they did. The fact that they couldn’t pull the average higher suggests that earnings at the bottom of the scale are weaker than they should be. In other words, it looks like inequality could be getting wider.

“As always, more important than the number of jobs added is the quality of them and the resultant wage growth,” said Megan Greene, chief economist with Manuflife Asset Management. “On that front, this report—like most of them over the past few years—was decidedly meh.”

Greene reckons that the figures shorten the odds of the Federal Reserve only raising interest two more times this year. That ought to keep the housing market steady and, at least, limit the damage to the auto sector, where sales have slowed recently as lease plans start to get more expensive.

ADM ISI’s Archer also argues that the earnings figures are nothing to scare the Fed, but cautioned that it wasn’t really likely to do anything before its Federal Open Market Committee meeting in June anyway – by which time this report will be ancient history.

About the Author
By Geoffrey Smith
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in Finance

Top CD rates from major banks July 29, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates from major banks on July 29, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 29, 2026
1 hour ago
Current price of Bitcoin for July 29, 2026
Personal FinanceCryptocurrency
Current price of Bitcoin for July 29, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 29, 2026
1 hour ago
Current price of Ethereum for July 29, 2026
Personal FinanceEthereum
Current price of Ethereum for July 29, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 29, 2026
1 hour ago
Current price of oil as of July 29, 2026
Personal FinanceOil
Current price of oil as of July 29, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 29, 2026
2 hours ago
Current price of silver as of Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Personal Financesilver
Current price of silver as of Wednesday, July 29, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 29, 2026
2 hours ago
Jamie Dimon says his stockbroker father taught him to invest with a ‘brutally hard’ childhood game
C-SuiteJamie Dimon
Jamie Dimon says his stockbroker father taught him to invest with a ‘brutally hard’ childhood game
By Sarah GlodekJuly 29, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

Why did a $154 billion CEO just endorse stripping most Americans of voting rights—and taking us back to the 19th century?
C-Suite
Why did a $154 billion CEO just endorse stripping most Americans of voting rights—and taking us back to the 19th century?
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 27, 2026
2 days ago
eBay will pay nearly $50 million after employees reportedly sent a Massachusetts couple a bloody pig mask, cockroaches and death threats
Law
eBay will pay nearly $50 million after employees reportedly sent a Massachusetts couple a bloody pig mask, cockroaches and death threats
By The Associated Press and Leah WillinghamJuly 28, 2026
14 hours ago
Current price of oil as of July 28, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 28, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 28, 2026
23 hours ago
The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
Real Estate
The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 25, 2026
4 days ago
No. 1 on the Fortune Global 500: Amazon's Jeff Bezos on how his garage startup became the largest company in the world by revenue
Magazine
No. 1 on the Fortune Global 500: Amazon's Jeff Bezos on how his garage startup became the largest company in the world by revenue
By Kristin StollerJuly 28, 2026
1 day ago
The brutal math behind Gen Z's lonely weekends: $15 drinks are driving a generational 'spending hangover'
Economy
The brutal math behind Gen Z's lonely weekends: $15 drinks are driving a generational 'spending hangover'
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 28, 2026
21 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.